On Sunday, Canada and Croatia will battle on the pitch, in a match that before the tournament seemed a formality to many. The 2nd place finishers in Russia 2018, Croatia on paper is the better team. However, the opening round of matches showed us that perhaps our pre-tournament expectations were wrong. Croatia started their tournament against Morocco, which turned out to a fairly even contest. Croatia and Morocco combined for less than 1 xG over the whole match, with Nikola Vlasic of Croatia having the two chances in the best area. Most of Morocco’s shots were restricted to outside the box vs. Croatia, with Noussair Mazraoui being able to sneak in off the left flank for a few opportunities in the box close to the touchline. In the end, the game finished 0-0, which seemed fair, but was certainly not the result or performance Croatia wanted.

Conversely, Canada started off their world cup with a performance so strong, it likely shocked the majority of people watching, including Canadian fans. The result did not go their way against Belgium, with the game decided by a Michy Batshuayi goal just before halftime. If the scoreboard was removed from your screen, you might have guessed Canada was the team going into halftime with the lead. John Herdman’s side took the game to Belgium in the first half, playing very high up the field, and certainly not playing with any fear of the 2nd ranked team in the world. Over that first half, Canada amassed a very impressive 2.08xG, but could not find the finishing touch. The talking point of the game was Alphonso Davies penalty being saved by Thibaut Courtois in the 11th minute, with many suggesting (with hindsight) that perhaps Jonathan David, who has a 75% penalty conversion rate for Lille in Ligue 1 this season, should have taken the penalty instead of Davies, who is seldom asked to take penalties for his club team, Bayern Munich. After the penalty miss, Canada bounced back well and continued to dominate Belgium in the first half. Davies regularly caused issues for Timothy Castagne, who was coming up from his RWB position to mark Davies when he received the ball in the midfield. Canada could not find the net, and suffered greatly off one of their few mistakes of the first half, going down 1-0 at halftime. Belgium were stronger defensively in the second half, with Canada only producing 0.56xG, and were able to hang on for the 3 points. Regardless of outcome, this was not the humbling that many expected for Canada. They showed they belong at this tournament, and Croatia certainly took notice of the result.

On a funny side note: the media have been trying to work this Canada v. Croatia match up into more of a grudge match, taking John Herdman’s motivating words to his team following the Belgium match of “Let’s go F- Croatia” out of context as disrespect to Croatia, perhaps trying to create more storylines. It should be interesting to see if Croatia decides to use this as added motivation.

Formation:

Croatia has rotated their lineup throughout world cup qualifiers, but as the tournament approached there is some clear consistencies in the selection. Starting at the back, Croatia likes to play with a 4 back, with Sosa and Juranovic in the fullback roles, and Dejan Lovren at CB, paired with either Josko Gvardiol or Domagoj Vida.

Marcelo Brozovic is tasked with holding the midfield, usually behind Kovacic on his left and Modric on his right. This midfield 3 can compete with any midfield at this tournament, and Canada may find the game extremely difficult if they try to set up defensively and give possession to Croatia. Croatia’s front 3 they selected for the Morocco game included Ivan Perisic on the left, Andrej Kramaric up front, and Nikola Vlasic at RW. Perisic is likely to be the more defensive of these front 3, usually playing at LWB or LM in club football for Spurs. He will likely look to fulfill his defensive responsibilities on the left flank before looking to drive up the wing and use his fantastic crossing ability to get the ball into the box. This will allow Croatia to drop back into a 4-4-2 shape in defense, or press with their full front 3.

In their first game, Canada set up in a 3-4-2-1, which in attack looked more like a 3-4-3, with Tajon Buchanan and Junior Hoilett getting wide from the CF positions. Both of these players regularly play more defensive roles for their club teams, operating in wide midfield roles. Buchanan has showed strong defensive capability as well, which is a common theme for this Canadian squad. Several players on the national team are asked to play further forward than usual, due to the positional strengths/weaknesses of Canada. Jonathan David and Cyle Larin are the two natural forwards on the team, and in CONCACAF qualifying, this was apparent. Larin scored 13 goals and David added 9, to finish #1 and #2 in CONCACAF qualifying goal scoring. Look for Cyle Larin to possibly get the start vs. Croatia in place of the veteran Hoilett, or in place of Richie Laryea, allowing Buchanan to move back into RM, and allowing Larin to play up front.

If Canada looks to go with a similarly attacking mentality against Croatia as they did against Belgium, the chances for an upset are absolutely possible. This game will be a big mental test for the Canadians, as several members of the team will be playing against players of Modric, Perisic, and Brozovic’s caliber on the biggest stage for the first time. Stephen Eustaquio will likely be asked to carry a heavy load in the midfield for Canada and look to work with captain Atiba Hutchinson to get Modric and Kovacic off their rhythm.

Prediction: this will be a hard fought match. If Canada looks to defend and break on the counter-attack, I believe this may play out similarly to the match Croatia booked their ticket to Qatar in against Russia, where the Russians only needed a draw and thus looked to defend in numbers all game. That game was decided by an 81′ own goal, after relentless Croatian pressure. If Canada looks to open up play and take the game to Croatia, this has all the makings of a back and forth game with a handful of goals. From what I’ve seen from this Canada team in qualifying and vs. Belgium, they are not here just to participate, and will do everything they can to come away with 3 points here.

Final Score Prediction: Croatia 1 – 2 Canada

Thanks for reading! Enjoy the games 🙂