Hello again! First of all I want to thank all the various readers from all around the world who have taken the time to read my work. If there are any specific stories or topics that you would be interested in, feel free to leave a comment! There is no area of football too isolated or niche for me to be interested in. Now, let’s get into today’s article on the final weeks of the English Premier League.

Matchweek 29 Table:

To start, I’ve split up the table into two parts, to discuss clubs with similar aspirations and worries together. First up, our clubs who still have a shot at the European qualification spots.

League Table Part 1: We’re Going to Europe?

Before looking at any of these clubs, I thought it might be useful to remind ourselves of the UEFA qualification places in the EPL. The top 4 teams qualify for the UEFA Champions League. The 5th place team, as well as the winner of the FA Cup, qualify for the UEFA Europa League. If the FA cup winner finishes in the top 5, then their UEL qualification place goes to the highest finishing club without European qualification. The final spot, in the UEFA Conference League, is awarded to the team that wins the League Cup. Similarly to the UEL, if the League Cup winners finish in the top 5, the UECL qualification spot is awarded to the next highest finishing team without European qualification. So that being said, let’s look at the teams still with a chance to win the FA and League Cups in the top positions.

The FA Cup:

The Semi-finals of the FA cup are set, with Manchester City facing off against Sheffield United of the Championship, while upstart Brighton and Hove Albion play Manchester United for the other spot at Wembley. Unless Sheffield United pull off a miraculous victory, I believe the winner of the FA cup is very likely to finish in a Top 6 place in the Premier League, with Brighton looking more and more deserving of that place every week. This being considered, we should reasonably expect the teams that finish 5th and 6th this season to gain Europa League Qualification.

The EFL League Cup:

The League Cup winners have already been confirmed as Manchester United! Assuming they will finish in a Top 6 place, this will mean that the UEFA Conference League qualification spot will go to the team finishing 7th in the Premier League this season. With all this in mind, let’s discuss the possible candidates.

The UEFA Champions League:

There is still a lot of change that can happen in the Top 4 places throughout the rest of the season. The two likely locks are Arsenal and Manchester City, who hold 22 and 14 point leads over 4th place. Only a colossal collapse would see either of these squads fail to qualify for the Champions League, and in terms of the title-race, Arsenal have shown that it is their trophy to bottle. Look forward to the match at the Etihad vs. City that might decide this season’s winner for good. The real intrigue is in the final two UCL spots. After their victory over Ten Hag’s Red Devils, Newcastle have tied United on points, and are ahead on goal differential in 3rd place. After seeing off Antonio Conte, Spurs are 1 point behind Newcastle and Manchester United, provided having played one more game. The remainder of the season will show if Conte was the problem at Tottenham, if Spurs can finish strong to claim a Top 4 place. However, they are likely the greatest uncertainty in the UCL race, with both teams on their heels, Brighton and Brentford, showing much more consistent form over the season. Brighton has 2 games in hand, and can pass Spurs on goal differential for 5th place by winning both games. An extremely strong finish to the season for either Brentford or Liverpool could see them snag the 4th spot, but their future is more in the hands of the teams above them than in their own control. I do not think there is a significant enough chance of any teams below Liverpool to challenge for the UCL places this season to discuss.

The UEFA Europa League:

As we noticed earlier, the UEL qualification spots will likely go to the 5th and 6th place teams. At this stage of the season, the teams most likely to finish in these places are: Manchester United, Spurs, Brighton, or Liverpool. If you’ve noticed I haven’t included Newcastle here, this is because I believe their remaining schedule for the season is the least congested, with only Premier League games to play. Spurs are also out of all cup competitions, but have not looked as functional as Eddie Howe’s men this year. Manchester United are still in the Europa League and the FA Cup, have struggled in the Premier League recently, and I could see them dropping points in the league around the European fixtures vs. Sevilla. One of the four teams I’ve mentioned will finish in the Top 4, so you could say these are my choices to finish in places 4th through 7th.

The UEFA Conference League:

The Premier League representative in the Europa Conference League will be the 7th placed team in the Premier League, provided Manchester United finish no lower than 7th (as League Cup winners). I do not think United will fall to 7th, so I believe we should be looking at Brentford and Liverpool for this spot. Liverpool’s recent resurgence give reason for optimism, but the work done by Thomas Frank at Brentford cannot be ignored, and there is every chance Brentford could be in Europe next season. If Aston Villa, Fulham, or Chelsea are to qualify to Europe after the way their seasons have gone, that will be quite the achievement. Chelsea have not named their (possibly interim) replacement for the recently-sacked Graham Potter, but who knows, maybe they can work some magic?

The League Table Part 2: Let’s Not Get Relegated Lads

I’ve separated the table here, as Chelsea on 38 points, with the squad they have, SHOULD have no chance at relegation. Crystal Palace on the other hand, are sitting just 4 points clear of the relegation zone, with an extra game played over the teams on the verge. Add in yet another sacked manager in Patrick Viera, and Crystal Palace are a large unknown. We could see a resurgence into the top half of the table, or a further collapse into a true relegation battle. Unsurprisingly, Palace are not the only team in this part of the table who have sacked their manager this season. In fact, only West Ham and Nottingham Forest of the remaining teams have not sacked a manager this season. I think both of these squads have shown enough to make me relatively confident (as confident as can be this season) that they will not be relegated. Gary O’Neil has done enough at Bournemouth following Scott Parker’s dismissal to earn a full-time contract, and with a 2-1 win over Fulham on the weekend, the Cherries should be looking away from the relegation zone come the end of the season. The teams I am most worried for are the ones who haven’t shown much promise, or ability to pick up points, against their fellow bottom-table teams. Sean Dyche should be the stabilizing presence Everton need to stay up this year, his debut win over Arsenal inspiring some belief in a club much in need of it this season.

Top 5 Picks for Relegation:

1. Southampton: this is no hot take, the Saints have caused their fans to lose faith this year, with multiple managers being sacked, and utterly uninspiring displays every week. (Only a depressed Spurs team could give them a point)
2. Leicester City: This makes me sad to write, as I’ve always been a fan of Leicester constantly pushing the “Big 6” year after year, and giving us possibly the best underdog story in sports history. This season, the Foxes have lost their bite, and have recently dismissed long-standing manager Brendan Rogers. The story is set for the new manager to save Leicester from relegation and start a new legend at the club, but only time will tell. Optimism is great, but points on the table are better.
3. Leeds United: Firing Jesse Marsch immediately after backing him in the transfer market and bringing in US international Weston McKinnie seemed… impulsive. Especially when Leeds were clearly underperforming their expected attacking output most games, and Patrick Bamford having been sidelined for large portions of the season. The appointment of Javi Gracia was slightly unexpected, and the Spaniard will have his work cut out for him to keep Leeds in the Premier League this season.
4. Wolverhampton Wanderers: Wait, buying as many Portuguese players as possible doesn’t automatically win titles? Someone tell Wolves please. Jokes aside, bringing in Julen Lopetegui was a rational decision, and I believe he’s shown enough promise to keep the Molineux side up, but a run of bad results could prove fatal to Wolverhampton’s aspirations of remaining a top-flight club.
5. Crystal Palace: Like with Leicester, it would be hard to imagine the Premier League without Crystal Palace, who have been a mainstay since the 2013/14 season. Viera’s high intensity pressing style got decent results early on in the season, but following the world cup break, the intensity out of possession never returned to the early-season levels. Following Viera’s departure, Palace are a team lacking an identity, which can be a disastrous flaw to have when fighting for survival in the Premier League. I believe the top 3 teams on this list are much more likely to be relegated than the final 2 options, but as this season has shown us, the Premier League is as unpredictable as ever (and no manager’s job is safe).

That’ll be all for today, if you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! I hope you found something interesting here, and be sure to check back in for more articles coming soon!