Welcome back football fans, I hope you’re ready to take a trip to Norway! All teams in the Eliteserien have played at least 10 games now, so I’d like to take a look at how the season is shaping up, the biggest surprises (both good and bad), and what might happen in the remaining 20 games. If you’d like to check out my Eliteserien season preview and see where I’ve been proven wrong, here is the link: (https://futbird.com/2023/03/18/2023-norway-eliteserien-preview/).
The League Table
| Matches Played | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points | |
| Bodo/Glimt | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 9 | 23 | 31 |
| Brann | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 21 |
| Viking | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 20 |
| Tromso | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 20 |
| Lillestrom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 17 |
| Molde | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 16 |
| Sarpsborg | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 15 |
| Stabaek | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 15 |
| Rosenborg | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 13 |
| Odd | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| Haugesund | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 12 |
| Stromsgodset | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 11 |
| Valerenga | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
| Sandefjord | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| HamKam | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 26 | -16 | 7 |
| Aalesund | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 4 |
Bodø/Glimt, Flying High!
What a start to the season it has been for the yellow flash from the North! 31 points from their opening 11 matches and a +23 goal difference has put Bodø firmly on top of the table with a 10 point lead over Brann in 2nd, who were the one team to take points from Bodø so far. That match required a bit of magic from Amahl Pellegrino to overturn a 0-2 halftime deficit and draw the match 2-2. It is also worth noting that Bodø started several substitutes in that match (and quickly realized their mistake, making changes and getting a point back). Speaking of Pellegrino, the left-winger has been in phenomenal form this season, seemingly scoring goal-of-the-season candidates one after another. “Pelle” as he is affectionately called at the Aspmyra, is leading the Eliteserien in goals… AND assists. With 12G and 5A through 11 games, this inspired form has been the driving catalyst behind Bodø’s early success. Brann’s Bard Finne is the closest competitor, amassing 13 goal contributions in his first 12 matches. New signing Faris Moumbagna has settled in well, notching 8 goals so far this campaign and proving to be the type of physical target forward who can create space for his teammates to score. Finally, the preferred midfield trio of Albert Gronbaek, Patrick Berg, and Hugo Vetlesen is unmatched by any team in the Eliteserien in my opinion, providing an ever-consistent base for the team to build on. The only imperfection this season was going out of the Norwegian Cup to Lillestrøm much earlier than expected, but as a result there will be less fixture congestion for the remainder of the year. Bodø/Glimt have been playing some beautiful football, and are strong favorites for the title this season. Who might be able to stop them?
The Contenders
Surprisingly, my pre-season title contenders have not lived up to expectations this season, Molde sit 15 points back in 6th place, Rosenborg are in 9th, and Vålerenga are flirting with relegation, sitting just one point clear of the playoff place. Accordingly, I owe some more respect to a few squads I had thought would be mid-table this season, but could put together a title challenge. Brann and Tromso are the two teams I believe have a chance to compete with Bodø/Glimt. Brann have proven themselves capable, taking points off of Bodø at Aspmyra, but also have losses to Odd and Sarpsborg which they will not be happy about. Also, a 0-0 draw at home to relegation candidates Sandefjord will not give reason for overconfidence. While I think Brann have showed enough to be considered a contender, they will need to clean up their inconsistencies if they are to keep pace with Bodø/Glimt.
Tromso are the more intriguing side in the race this year. Bodø’s northern rivals, Tromso have more motivation than any other side to prevent Bodø/Glimt from claiming their 3rd Eliteserien title in 4 years. They have also gotten off to a great start, able to move to 2nd in the table and 8 points behind Glimt by winning their next match. Suffering the same fate as their northern rivals in the Norwegian Cup (being knocked out by Lillestrøm), Tromso rebounded with a strong run of league form, only losing to Odd and Bodø/Glimt in their first 10 matches. In their upcoming schedule, we will see them tested: Starting on July 2nd, Tromso go through a run of having to face Lillestrøm twice, Rosenborg, Brann, and Bodø/Glimt all in a span of 6 matches. By the time I’ve written the Matchweek 20 Update, we will know whether Tromso has what it takes to be a contender this season.
Biggest Surprises
Good: Newly Promoted Teams – both of last seasons First Division clubs, Brann and Stabaek, have both performed much better than expected in their first season back in the Eliteserien, sitting in 2nd and 8th respectively at the time of writing. I thought the loss of Gift Orban would hurt Stabaek more than it has, and while their 14 league goals this season isn’t mind-blowing by any means, it is very respectable for a newly promoted side.
Bad: Last Season’s Success Stories – last season Odd and Valerenga finished in 5th and 6th place, 1 point apart. This year, Odd has plummeted to 10th place after their inconsistent start. Having beaten Brann, Tromso, and Molde this year, it is confusing to also see big losses to Sandefjord and Sarpsborg. In their wins, Odd are showing why they finished 5th last season, but when they play the worse teams in the league, their performance level has dropped catastrophically. (Sandefjord have scored 12 goals this season. 4 of them came in one game vs Odd).
Meanwhile Vålerenga is in an even worse place: 1 point from the relegation playoff. It has been an abysmal start for Vålerenga, who have only beaten Rosenborg, HamKam, and Aalesund; the latter two clubs being in the bottom 2 places on the table. The main issue for Vålerenga is their lack of scoring. No player has more than 3 goals so far this season, and their best chance creator has a combined xG + xA of 4.9 through 10 matches. When your statistically best player is creating around half of an expected team goal per match, your attack will struggle. For comparison, league leaders Bodø/Glimt have 4 players who have created as much or more xG + xA. If Vålerenga cannot turn around one of their worst starts in years, they may find themselves in trouble by the business end of the season.
Conclusion
If your eyes haven’t opened enough yet to read the whole article, here’s a quick summary: this year’s Eliteserien is Bodø/Glimt’s to lose, led by Amahl Pellegrino in the form of his life. Brann and Stabaek are overachieving so far, while Rosenborg, Odd, and Vålerenga are the biggest disappointments. The next 10 games will be crucial to determine how the league will shape up this season, so tune in! As always, thanks for stopping by.
-LM
futbird 