Born in 2008 (yes, I feel old too) about 25km north of Napoli in the city of Aversa, Italy, Honest Ahanor is now making his name known. Growing up with Italian legend Paolo Maldini as his footballing idol, Ahanor joined the Genoa youth ranks with that in mind, as he began to develop as a CB. During the 2024/25 season, Ahanor started with the Genoa U15’s, then moved to the U16’s, and promptly again to the U17’s. This same year, at 15 years old, he was called up to play for Genoa’s U19 team, and the following year was immediately promoted to the U20’s. Just three matches at that level in the 24/25 season, and Genoa had seen enough, bringing Ahanor up to the senior team. This rise from U15 football to Serie A in less than 2 seasons was truly remarkable, and since then Ahanor has been showing why he deserved it. After playing in 6 matches for Genoa in the 24/25 season, Atalanta shelled out 20M euros for the defender, the second highest transfer fee of all time for an Italian U17 player. Clearly they saw his potential, and he has repaid their faith so far, performing even better in his first matches with Atalanta than he did at Genoa.
Player Overview:
A true ball playing CB, Honest Ahanor stands out most in possession. He loves to bring the ball out of defence himself, and will frequently use his long frame to skip past defenders in just a few steps. Ahanor does have the early makings of a rare type of defender, one who can very comfortably operate as both a CB, and as a LWB. Think Atlético’s Dávid Hancko, just trade off some of Hancko’s defending/crossing ability for a bit more on the ball skill.
Physical:
Standing at 184cm tall, Honest Ahanor has a relatively slender, but strong build. At just 17 years old, he is nowhere near his physical peak yet, and will almost certainly develop considerably in this area. However, his light and agile frame allows him to move with the ball unlike most defenders, showing strong pace and a quick change of direction. While not aerially dominant just yet, Ahanor has shown a very respectable level of duels as a teenager playing against grown men – winning 14/20 of his Serie A duels and 3/4 of his aerial duels so far.
Mental/Tactical:
While I can’t say I know Honest Ahanor, the human being, we can infer something about his mentality from his rapid rise to the top of Italian football. Every time he has been given an opportunity, he has made the most of it. With Atalanta, Ahanor has played in both Champions League matches so far, albeit just 5 minutes vs PSG. In his full match against Club Brugge, Ahanor was one of Atalanta’s standout players while being one of their least experienced, showing his ability to rise to the occasion. Tactically, as I mentioned before, I believe Ahanor could operate as a LCB/LB in a back 4 system, or as a CB/LWB in a back 5 system. He really enjoys making forward runs, both inverted and overlapping, though in Atalanta’s current system he is asked to make inverted runs more often while playing as the LCB. Ahanor’s off the ball movement is also very impressive, not just often seen. In the match against Brugge, several times Ahanor broke the first (and sometimes second) lines of press by himself, before laying the ball off and continuing his run into the box, adding an extra dimension to the Atalanta attack for defenders to consider. Defensively, his positioning looks quite sound for such a young defender, frequently intercepting and recovering the ball for his side. At times he has to use his long frame to stretch for a block or tackle, and could work more on being in position to not need to make a tackle, like his idol Maldini. Overall, Ahanor looks like a tactically versatile player who can play in multiple roles across a defence.
Technical:
When Ahanor is on the ball, he looks special. Very comfortable with the ball at his feet, Ahanor is a very accurate passer, recording an 86% pass completion rate in Serie A, and in his full UCL debut completing 58/59 passes. Ahanor does like to try a few long balls per game, which does make his pass completion rating more impressive. Ahanor has yet to be dispossessed while in possession this season, which absolutely lines up with the eye test on him. Almost as if he wants to be pressured, Ahanor will draw defenders in very close, before darting around them before they can react. This made buildup for Atalanta relatively easy both against Juventus and Club Brugge, as any time play was switched over to the left side, Ahanor had more than enough space to take the ball into the middle or final third by himself, and had the ability to do so. If you’re an admirer of Total Football, or love seeing a defender attack, then Honest Ahanor is the defender for you.
Summary:
A very exciting Italian defender, Honest Ahanor can comfortably play anywhere from LWB to a central CB, but would be best in a back 5 system. Incredibly gifted on the ball, he is a one-man press destroying machine, frequently bringing the ball out of defence by himself, and then appearing in the final third in central positions you wouldn’t expect a CB to be in. The amount of chaos that he causes to defensive structures is quite unique. With the right development, Ahanor has potential to be an Italian senior national team player at the bare minimum. With a closest player comparison to Dávid Hancko, it is no coincidence that I believe Atlético de Madrid would be a top destination for Ahanor to reach his full potential at. He already has the makings of a top-level ball playing CB, and the defensive development he would receive under Simeone would round out his skillset in a way that could allow him to become a real star. Everton could be another decent option as a LB, looking at their usage of Mykolenko over the past few seasons. Regardless of where he ends up, Honest Ahanor is an extremely promising prospect with the potential to become a world-class “Swiss army knife” type defender: slot him in anywhere in defence and he’ll do a job.
Hello football fans, sorry for the delay, been a little busy, much like our participants in the Champions’ League quarterfinals. On Tuesday, two of the semi-finalists were confirmed, in PSG and FC Barcelona.
PSG 5 – 4 Aston Villa:
Wow. Just wow. I thought that this tie would be the most exciting to watch for a neutral in the quarterfinals, and I was more correct than I thought I’d be. For the Villains in their first UCL appearance in many years, this tie had everything their fans could’ve wanted. Starting with the away leg in Paris, Morgan Rogers gave the Birmingham faithful something to roar about when he opened the scoring 35 minutes into the tie. However, this PSG team is really no slouch, and proved it, dominating the rest of that match and scoring 3 goals to take a two goal lead to Villa Park.
The second leg began just as fast as the previous leg ended, with Hakimi and Nuno Mendes firing PSG to a 2-0 lead on the night, and a 5-1 lead on aggregate just 27 minutes into the 2nd leg. In front of their home fans however, Villa was not going to just go quietly into the night. A bit of luck went their way to grab the momentum back, when Youri Tielemans strike from range deflected off Pacho and into the net, bringing the Villa fans to life, and Villa within 3 goals again. Ten minutes into the second half, John McGinn produced a similar goal on a break, taking a powerful shot from the edge of the box, which also (unfortunately for him) deflected off Pacho again into the net. Marcus Rashford had a great strike denied with a fantastic save by Donnarumma, shortly before Rashford produced an impressive bit of dribbling to ease into the box and set up Ezri Konsa to sweep in Villa’s third of the night, making this a one goal tie. Villa kept pushing for the tying goal, but both Donnarumma and the PSG defenders managed to keep them out, including a last ditch volley from Ian Maatsen at the end of the match that was blocked off the line by Nuno Mendes. PSG advance by the narrowest of margins, but deservedly so I believe. Aston Villa certainly did themselves, and their fans, proud.
Barcelona 5 – 3 Borussia Dortmund:
This tie seemed like it was over after the first leg, when Barcelona swept Dortmund away at the Camp Nou for a 4-0 victory including a Lewandowski brace. In the second leg in Germany, Dortmund put up much more of a fight and had the Catalonians sweating. Just 11 minutes into the second leg, Serhou Guirassy converts a penalty to bring the aggregate score to 4-1. Just after the start of the second half, Guirassy scores again to make it 4-2 on aggregate, assisted by Ramy Bensebaini. Bensebaini’s moment of glory would soon turn to a nightmare, as just 5 minutes later, he turns in an OG to restore Barcelona’s 3 goal aggregate lead.
Serhou Guirassy wasn’t done just yet though. After a neat piece of work by Julian Duranville down the right wing to beat two defenders, his cross is deflected by Araujo right to Guirassy, who makes no mistake to complete his hat trick on the night and bring the score to 5-3 on aggregate. This would be Dortmund’s last glimmer of hope however, as Barcelona held strong until full time to advance to the semifinals. This match was also a rare rest for Pedri, who did not play at all and should benefit from the rest.
Arsenal 5 – 1 Real Madrid
Well this was something. Despite Arsenal being one of, if not the best, defensive teams in Europe, they were not the favorites going into their tie against the de facto owners of this competition, Real Madrid. Under the pressure of the bright lights at the Emirates, Declan Rice cooked. Two direct free kick goals, past Thibaut Courtois of all keepers, for his first ever career free kick goals. The mental damage this must have done to the Madrid players, who then conceded a third goal to Mikel Merino, the *checks notes*, striker? A 3-0 win at the Emirates had Arsenal fans planning the UCL trophy parade already, while the “Galacticos 2.0” started a mini-PR tour for the remontada they were about to complete in the second leg. All media coverage in the week leading up to the 2nd leg was about how the Madrid players “know” they will come back and win. After seeing Madrid win from improbably situations countless times in the UCL, who was in a place to tell them otherwise? Apparently, Mikel Arteta. Arsenal sat deep and defended for pretty much the entire first half, but in the second half took advantage of Madrid’s desperation, with Bukayo Saka atoning for an earlier missed penalty with the match’s first goal to give Arsenal a 4 goal aggregate lead. Vini Jr scored 2 minutes later to give some life to the Bernabeu, who insisted the comeback was on. In the end, Arsenal limited Madrid to just 3 shots on target in the match, Gabriel Martinelli added a 2nd goal late, and the gunners completed an impressive win to advance to the semifinals.
Inter Milan 4 – 3 Bayern Munich
This one hurt for Bayern. The UCL final this year is to be held at their home stadium, the Allianz Arena, which made the competition so much more important this year. As I saw someone else put it well: “Winning the Bundesliga is desirable for Bayern, but Europe is where their hearts truly lie.” As a result, there was a tremendous amount of pressure on Bayern going into this tie against a formidable opponent. The first leg at the Allianz started with Bayern having the majority of the ball, and the pressure. Against the run of play, Lautaro Martinez scores a beautiful goal with the outside of his foot off a deft layoff from Marcus Thuram. Bayern would continue to have most of the pressure, accumulating 2.30 xG in this match to Inter’s 0.78. However, the only goal they would have to show for it was from an emotional Thomas Muller, potentially in his last season with Bayern, in the 85th minute. This brought Bayern life, and they pushed on in hopes of scoring a 2nd, before Inter executed a clinical counter attack in the 88th minute, finished off by substitute Davide Frattesi, giving Inter a snatch-and-grab 2-1 win in Germany. This meant Inter had a strong chance to advance, taking a lead back to the San Siro. In the 2nd leg, Bayern had even more of the ball, with 62% overall possession in the match, while Inter struggled to gain any momentum in the match. When Harry Kane scored in the 52nd minute to tie the aggregate score, it seemed long overdue for Bayern. Yet again though, Bayern couldn’t remain composed right after scoring. 58th and 61st minute goals from Martinez and Benjamin Pavard took the life right out of the Bavarians, and restored a 2 goal aggregate lead to Inter Milan not 10 minutes after Kane’s equaliser. A late goal from Eric Dier would bring Bayern within 1, but they could not find the net again, narrowly losing out by a single goal, leaving them wondering “what if”.
If the semi-finals are anything like the quarterfinals, we should be in for some good matchups! Just briefly, I think PSG have a stylistic advantage over Arsenal and I would have them as slight favorites, while I think Inter Milan will be value to get past Barcelona and make the final. Check back to see how it played out!
Hello football fans, today I’m going to be taking a look at the 4 UEFA Champions League quarterfinals, how each team got to this stage of the competition, and what their chances to win it all might look like. Let’s get right into it.
Quarterfinal 1: Arsenal (#3) vs Real Madrid (#11)
Going into the first quarterfinal, drawn between Arsenal and Real Madrid, Arsenal are technically the favorites, looking at the results of the League Phase. The Gunners finished 3rd in the new format League Phase, earning them a bye to the Round of 16. Arsenal did not have the most difficult set of League Phase fixtures, playing only two other strong contenders for the trophy in PSG and Inter Milan. They managed to secure a 2-0 home victory over PSG, while losing 1-0 away to Inter. In the Round of 16, PSV did not pose much of a threat. Arsenal swept them away 7-1 in Eindhoven, before a 2-2 draw at the Emirates was enough to see the Gunners through.
In the other corner, annual UCL favorites and record 15-time winners of the competition, Real Madrid. Ancelotti’s men did not have the smoothest League Phase campaign in the UCL this year, losing to Liverpool, Milan, and Lille. This led to Real having to go through the knockout playoff round to reach the Round of 16, where they played fellow underperforming favorites Manchester City. The first leg at the Etihad was always going to be where this fixture’s story was decided, and after being down 2-1 to the Cityzens in the 80th minute, Real Madrid went back to Spain with a 3-2 victory after two late goals by Brahim Diaz and Jude Bellingham. They would complete their dispatch of Man City with a 3-1 victory at the Bernabeu.
Madrid will be most fans choice to move on here, but this fixture will still present some interesting matchups. Stylistically, you have Ancelotti’s “Laissez-Faire” approach to his man management, and Real Madrid’s often lopsided attack consisting of 3 left wingers, up against Mikel Arteta’s uber-structured style designed to limit chances against teams like Madrid. French international William Saliba will be tasked with keeping his compatriot, Kylian Mbappe, quiet in the tie. Also keep an eye out for the battle between Madrid’s highly skilled wingers, and Arsenal’s defensive minded fullbacks. It is entirely likely that we see Arsenal set up with four centre-halves, with Calafiori and Ben White playing as fullbacks. Arsenal will know that they cannot compete in a straight shootout with Madrid, and will likely look to limit as many chances as possible, while hoping to convert what they are able to produce. If Arsenal can get past Madrid, they will have gained invaluable experience and will likely have a new confidence in Europe that was missing before.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Madrid, Madrid 2-0 Arsenal, Aggregate: Madrid 3 – 1 Arsenal.
Quarterfinal 2: Paris Saint-Germain (#15) vs Aston Villa (#8)
This matchup will be a neutral’s dream to watch. Both clubs out to prove something in Europe, in fine form, and not afraid to run up the scoreline. While PSG had some struggles in the League Phase, losing to Bayern, Atletico Madrid, and Arsenal en route to a 15th place finish and a path through the knockout playoff round. In this round, PSG were matched up against fellow Ligue 1 side, Brest. Brest had done incredibly well to make it to this stage, in what was their first ever European competition qualification, and ended up offering not much more than a huge confidence boost to PSG, who won the two leg tie 10-0 on aggregate. Ousmane Dembele is in the form of his life, and despite an Alisson masterclass leading to a Harvey Elliott snatch-and-grab winner at the Parc des Princes, the two-footed Frenchman was electric in both legs (no pun intended, I promise). A Liverpool defensive mishap early in the 2nd leg gave Dembélé the chance to tie the aggregate score at 1, before Gianluigi Donnarumma dominated the penalty shootout to take PSG into the quarterfinals.
Their opponents, Aston Villa, are back in the Champions League for the first time in a long time, and came out with a bang. Beating Bayern Munich 1-0 early in the League Phase gave the villains a boost, which helped them to the 8th and final automatic Round of 16 berth. There, they faced Club Brugge, who were dispatched 6-1 on aggregate. The January loan signings of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio have paid off early for Unai Emery, and Villa will provide a potent threat to the PSG defence. I do really like how this Villa team is playing, but after what I saw out of PSG last round, I find it hard to see any other winner if Paris play anything like they did against Liverpool.
In the next quarterfinal, we have Hansi Flick’s Barcelona going up against Niko Kovac’s Borussia Dortmund. The Catalonians narrowly missed out on the top spot in the League Phase, losing once to Monaco, and drawing with Atalanta. They earned an automatic Round of 16 place, sweeping away Benfica 4-1 on aggregate to book their place in the Quarterfinals. There are some potential key injuries that could affect Barcelona in this tie, but we are too far out to know for sure yet. If healthy, Barcelona are well equipped to make a run to the final.
Their opponents, Dortmund, have had a slightly tumultuous season to-date. Last year’s UCL finalists, Dortmund started the season without the manager that took them to that final, Edin Terzic, who stepped down from his role after the season. Nuri Sahin took over to start the year, but poor results led to him being sacked and replaced by Niko Kovac. They still managed a respectable 10th place finish in the League Phase, and were never in danger of missing qualification to the knockouts. In the Knockout Playoff Round, Dortmund faced Sporting CP, and kept a clean sheet over the tie, winning 3-0 on aggregate. Then, they faced Lille in the Round of 16, who had a very strong UCL campaign up to that point. A draw in Germany left everything to play for in the 2nd leg in Lille, where Jonathan David got the hosts off to a flying start, scoring 5 minutes in to give Lille the lead on aggregate 2-1. Dortmund showed their resilience however, scoring twice in the second half before holding Lille out until full time, taking the tie 3-2. I could see this quarterfinal going several ways, much is dependent on Barcelona’s injury situation at the time. So take this prediction with a grain of salt.
Prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Dortmund, Dortmund 1-1 Barcelona, Aggregate: Barcelona 3-1 Dortmund.
Quarterfinal 4: Inter Milan (#4) vs. Bayern Munich (#12)
Our final quarterfinal to discuss involves two perennial challengers for this competition in recent years. Inter Milan were runners up in 2023 to Manchester City, and Bayern have won the competition as recently as 2020.
Inzaghi’s Inter were a force of nature in Serie A last season, seemingly unbeatable. This year they have not been quite as unbelievably dominant, but are still quite a strong squad, proving it in the UCL League Phase. Their only blemishes on a perfect record were a narrow loss to Bayer Leverkusen, and a draw against Manchester City in a rematch of the 2023 final. In the Round of 16, Inter faced a Feyenoord team who showed a real capacity to upset one of the established giants and proved a tough challenge. Inter showed their quality in this tie, taking a 2-0 away win in Rotterdam before winning the second leg 2-1, where their aggregate lead was never less than 2 goals in the match. Inter have shown that they set up well for European play, and can match up against teams from any country well.
Their opponents however, have quite the strong squad as well. Harry Kane has been prolific as ever for Bayern, with Jamal Musiala enjoying another strong season playing just behind Kane. The arrival of Michael Olise has given Bayern another level to go to, and the young frenchman seems to have developed some very strong chemistry with Musiala and Kane. Manuel Neuer has been confirmed to be out for the rest of the season after suffering an injury in the 1st leg of their Round of 16 tie vs Bayer Leverkusen, and in his absence, 21 year old Jonas Urbig has been given the job in net. Urbig held a clean sheet in the return fixture vs Leverkusen, giving Bayern their spot in the quarterfinals. This is setting up to be a real Goliath vs. Goliath type matchup, and it should be very enjoyable to see the tactics of Kompany and Inzaghi facing off.
Regardless of outcome, the new Champions League format made for a much more interesting “group stage”, and the quarterfinals are stacked with talent. If I had to guess at what the final might look like based on today, I would have to go with PSG/Madrid vs. Bayern Munich. I really like the football that PSG is playing, even if I’ve held a long-standing disdain for their ownership. However, Madrid is still in the competition, and as long as they are, I can’t definitively say they will not be in the final. I know Barcelona is probably the more favoured pick over Bayern to make the final on the other side of the bracket, but I feel like a 2020 UCL rematch could be on the cards this year. This time though, I think it would be a much better match than the one we saw in 2020.
Well, the vocal haters of the new Champions League format are nowhere to be seen as we are now on the final day of matches in the League Phase. Here’s the current table:
Now I understand the table is a little overwhelming at first glance, so here’s a reminder on what everything means.
Teams that finish in Positions #1-8 on the league table automatically advance to the Round of 16. This leaves 8 spots in the Round of 16 to be filled. Teams that finish in Positions #9-24 on the league table will advance to the Knockout Playoff Round, where teams from positions #9-16 will be considered “seeded”, and teams #17-24 will be considered “unseeded”. The Knockout Playoff Round draws one seeded team against one unseeded team, with the winner advancing to the Round of 16.
So, on the final day, how many teams still have a chance at the automatic Round of 16 berth through a Top 8 finish? You might be surprised to hear the answer is 20 teams. Even Club Brugge, who are sitting in 20th place, could still finish in the Top 8 with a big win over Man City (don’t worry, we’ll get to them later).
Only two teams have secured a Top 8 finish before the final day, Liverpool and Barcelona. Compare this to the old Champions League format, where after 3/4 games, top teams in their groups would have already secured qualification, making the rest of the group stage matches relatively meaningless. Both Liverpool and Barcelona have won 6+ of their 7 matches, with Liverpool having maximum points so far. So perhaps these two teams have earned a “day off” on the final matchday, which feels much more balanced than the old format.
Arsenal and Inter Milan need just a point today to secure a Top 8 finish, although depending on results elsewhere, they could each still finish in the Top 8 with a loss today. Atletico Madrid and AC Milan both are favorites to secure their automatic Round of 16 berths today when they face RB Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb, respectively. The real fight will be for the final two spots in the Top 8. Three points separate 7th place Atalanta from 20th place Club Brugge. It is almost certain that the final Top 8 spots will be determined by goal differential (or if in the case of a tie in GD, by most goals scored).
Twenty-five of the thirty six teams in the UCL league phase still have something to play for today. Aside from our two table-leaders, the other clubs who’s fate has already been sealed are Bologna, Sparta Praha, RB Leipzig (who had a truly embarassing campaign by their standards), Girona, Crvena Zvezda, SK Sturm Graz, RB Salzburg (not a good year for RB, I guess), Slovan Bratislava, and BSC Young Boys. These teams will have a final matchday to show what they can do at the highest level, so don’t discount the motivation that might come with a last opportunity to impress. Playing well in the UCL can get you a transfer to a top league in Europe very quickly, and every one of these players know this. Overall, I think the new league phase format has been a success, and it should continue for the future.
So let me point out a few fixtures today that I think will be particularly interesting, given the stakes on hand. First of all, is Brest vs. Real Madrid. Brest surprised the world with their shock qualification to the UCL last season, and have continued to impress! They sit 13th in the table, as one of six clubs with 13 points. Both Real and Brest could make the Top 8 with a win today, and with Madrid travelling to France for the match, I think this one could turn out to be quite the scene.
My second pick for the biggest matches today is when 11th place Feyenoord go to 12th place Lille, with both clubs feeling like they will have a strong chance to advance straight to the Round of 16 with a win today. Jonathan David has been on form for Lille so far in Europe, and is one of the biggest threats from the penalty spot in the competition. Feyenoord’s defence, led by captain David Hancko, will look to stifle the Canadian striker, hoping his CONCACAF counterpart Santi Giminez will be the #9 leaving with the goals.
My final pick for what could be match of the day, is Manchester City hosting Club Brugge. This is a must win game for both sides, especially on City’s end. Club Brugge could still qualify for the Knockout Playoff Round with a loss today, but City know that their competition is over if they fail to pick up 3 points today at the Etihad. For this game to be exciting, Brugge will have to come out with energy, and hopefully score first. Otherwise, Pep might just lull us all to sleep.
Honorable Mention: Stuttgart vs PSG. Seb Hoeness leads his Stuttgart side up against the wealth of Paris Saint-Germain, while very little separates the sides on the UCL table. Both clubs have 10 points through 7 matches, and know they very well might need to win today to advance.
Hello all, and welcome back for a big one! Today I’ve had the idea to try and predict the full standings of each group in this year’s Champions League. There are some newcomers to the competition in first time participants Royal Antwerp and Union Berlin, as well as some returning clubs who have taken a bit of a hiatus from UEFA’s premier competition in recent years like Arsenal! Will Manchester City repeat as champions of Europe, or will we see a new team take the glory? Below are the results of this year’s Champion’s League draw.
The clear “Group of Death” here is Group F, containing Paris Saint-Germain, Borussia Dortmund, AC Milan and Newcastle United. Manchester City got a typically Manchester City-like draw, with their strongest opponents being RB Leipzig, a team which they smashed 8-1 on aggregate in last season’s Round of 16. Barcelona finally avoided Bayern Munich in the group stage, much to the delight of the culers. Their eternal rivals, and record winners of this competition, Real Madrid, were drawn into an interesting group with post-Spaletti Napoli, Braga, and Union Berlin. Now how will these groups look after the group stage (according to me)?
Group A
Bayern Munich. Ok, we can move on now. This group should be interesting to see if Galatasaray can manage to beat Manchester United to the 2nd qualification spot in this group. I think it’s almost a foregone conclusion that Bayern will top this group, especially with Harry Kane filling the squad’s greatest hole from last season. Early on in England, Manchester United have looked predictable and uninspiring. If Wolves were able to figure out United within the opening 15 minutes of their match, I have little doubt that the likes of Bayern and Galatasaray will be able to do the same. I’m sorry to Copenhagen, as I’d love to see them do well, but I do not see them having a great chance at qualifying to the next round or the Europa League. The matches between Galatasaray and United will likely determine who moves on from this group, so keep your eye on those fixtures.
Group B
In Arsenal’s return to the Champions League, they have been given a fairly reasonable group with PSV Eindhoven, Sevilla, and RC Lens. PSV Eindhoven have gotten worse since last season, losing several key players including Xavi Simons. Sevilla are the resident Europa League owners, and seem destined to continue the cycle of: Win Europa League, qualify for Champion’s League, finish 3rd in your UCL group and get sent to Europa League, Win Europa League… you get the idea. RC Lens are a very exciting young team that are certainly one to watch, but their task to qualify out of this group is a difficult one. Arsenal should be considered favorites to top this group, with PSV and Lens competing for the 2nd spot. No matter who gets that 2nd spot, Sevilla will finish 3rd and go win the Europa League. It’s just football heritage.
Group C
Group C looks to bring exciting football in all of its fixtures. UCL-debutants Union Berlin bring a high-energy style of play, and will look to disrupt the favorites to advance alongside SC Braga and their flair-filled Portuguese squad. The favorites, Real Madrid and Napoli, will both be looking to improve upon last season’s performances: Madrid looking towards the final in Carlo Ancelotti’s last season as manager, and Napoli looking to do themselves more justice than their R16 exit last year. Expect Victor Osimhen to bag the most goals in this group, but for Real Madrid to finish 1st.
Group D
Last season’s finalists, Inter Milan, return to the Champion’s League in a group with Benfica, Real Sociedad, and RB Salzburg. Inter are not the same team they were last year, but look to be a strong team still. Benjamin Pavard, Yann Sommer, Marcus Thuram, Juan Cuadrado, Kristjan Asllani, and Yann Bisseck have all come in to help balance out the losses of Andre Onana, Marcelo Brozovic, Gozens, Dzeko, and Milan Skriniar. Their competition to top Group D are a familiar foe, Benfica, who Inter Milan faced in the quarterfinals of last year’s competition. Benfica have also added some talent to their roster, acquiring Orkun Kokcu from Feyenoord, Arthur Cabral from Fiorentina, as well as David Jurasek, Anatoliy Trubin, Angel Di Maria, and Juan Bernat. Roger Schmidt’s side will be looking to get revenge on Inter, and finish first in this group. I don’t believe Real Sociedad or RB Salzburg should pose much of a threat to the top 2 of Group D.
Group E
Group E isn’t the most exciting one on paper. Feyenoord is the most appealing side to a neutral fan to watch, with Arne Slot’s side enjoying some attacking football. Atletico Madrid however, are not known for that. Diego Simeone’s squad play to win their battles and get results, not to entertain the fans. I believe they will do just that, and get the results needed to advance over Lazio and Celtic. Celtic look much worse than the side that qualified for this competition, with Brendan Rogers replacing Ange Postecoglu as manager and results falling off as a result. I predict Feyenoord and Atletico to finish tied on points at the top of the group, with just goal differential putting Feyenoord on top.
Group F
Sandro Tonali’s return to the San Siro, Ousmane Dembele, Alexander Isak, and Christian Pulisic’s returns to Signal-Iduna Park, and two of football’s modern day oil tycoons, Group F has it all. Newcastle United return to the Champion’s League and are immediately given a warm welcome with this draw. It is extremely difficult to predict how this group will turn out, with the only thing I’m sure of being that PSG will not win the Champion’s League. As much as I’m reluctant to praise a team that has a budget higher than many countries GDP, the transfers completed by PSG this summer have been solid business and in my opinion, enough to get them out of this tough group. AC Milan are not the most inspiring side here, still not as strong as their rivals Inter, and unlikely to qualify out of this group after selling their best player (Sandro Tonali) to another team in their UCL group. While it is nothing against Dortmund, they are in a group with 2 clubs owned by an entire country’s government and all the wealth that comes with it, and last seasons semi-finalists. I find it hard to see a future where Dortmund is able to finish in the top 2 here, but they could certainly sneak into the Europa League place in 3rd.
Group G
Manchester City were given a gift again by UEFA, and have little to no excuse for not winning 6 of 6 games in this group. Reigning treble-winners and holders of arguably the best squad in the world, RB Leipzig, Crvena Zvezda and Young Boys are going to be up against it. One of these teams will get the 2nd qualification spot, and for me it is between Leipzig and Crvena Zvezda. The away trip to Serbia is difficult for anyone, and Leipzig could struggle, leaving a window for the Serbs to qualify out of this group. Young Boys, representing Switzerland, have a promising team with some exciting young players to watch, but will not be expecting much in this group draw. Here’s hoping Manchester City’s draws for the knockouts won’t be as easy.
Group H
It only seems right that after finally avoiding Bayern in their UCL group, Barcelona will go on to top the group. Porto have a strong team, but have also lost their best player Otavio to the Saudi League, and do not have José Mourinho as manager. It’s not 2004, unfortunately for Porto. I think they will still be strong enough to make it out of the group, although a stumble against Royal Antwerp could give the debuting club a route to the knockouts. Shakhtar Donetsk will simply be happy to be here and taking a trip to the Camp Nou and Estadio de Dragao.
So, there’s my predictions for the group stages. To summarize, here are the teams I think will move on to the knockout stages of the 2023/2024 UEFA Champions League. Since the knockout stages will be drawn following the conclusion of the group stage, I cannot predict what the matchups will be at this point.
Final 16 – UCL
Group A: Bayern Munich, Galatasaray
Group B: Arsenal, PSV Eindhoven
Group C: Real Madrid, SSC Napoli
Group D: SL Benfica, Inter Milan
Group E: Feyenoord, Atletico Madrid
Group F: Newcastle United, PSG
Group G: Manchester City, RB Leipzig
Group H: FC Barcelona, FC Porto
When the knockout stages are drawn, I’ll be writing another prediction article for the rest of the competition! If you had any comments or disagreements, feel free to leave a comment. I hope you’ve enjoyed today’s article, and I’ll see you back soon!
Hello football fans, and I hope you sung that previous line just like I did! The UEFA Champions League qualifying rounds are nearly finished, with only the final legs of the last round to play next week. With that said, let’s take a look at some of the storylines that came from this year’s qualifying rounds, and which teams are starting to dream of making history in the main competition. I wanted to shine a light on the qualifiers specifically, to give some recognition to some of the best teams from the leagues that many likely don’t follow very closely.
History for Faroe Islands!
The first qualifying round of this year’s Champions League was composed of teams from countries all over Europe, with the smallest country represented being the Faroe Islands. While technically part of Denmark, the Faroe Islands compete separately in international and club play, with their own league. The Faroe Islands are home to just over 54,000 people, which leaves a large gap between their population and that of just the individual cities that call the other UCL clubs home. (Their only opponent from a city with a lower population than the Faroe Islands was Molde, a small town in Norway with 30,000 inhabitants). The winners of the Faroese league last year, earning them a spot in the first qualifying round, are Klaksvíkar Ítróttarfelag. Did you catch that the first time? If you also fear the thought of properly pronouncing their name correctly, they are commonly referred to simply as “KI” or “KI Klaksvik”. This is what their home pitch looks like:
It might be a far cry from the Santiago Bernabeu, but to me it’s just as beautiful. In the first qualifying round, Klaksvik were drawn against Hungarian champions, Ferencvaros. After holding the Hungarians scoreless at home on the islands, KI went on to Budapest for the return leg, and shocked the home crowd with a 3-0 win to move on to the next round! Swedish Allsvenskan winners BK Hacken were next up for the Faroese club, and after back to back draws with an aggregate score of 3-3, KI triumphed on penalties to make it 2 steps from the Champions League, something never achieved by a Faroese club before. In the third qualifying round, Klaksvik came up against Norwegian champions Molde, where 4,584 proud fans watched Klaksvik take a 2-1 win off an 86′ winner from Arni Frederiksburg. Unfortunately, the fairytale run would end in the second leg in Norway, where Molde would win 2-0 to advance. Still, this performance by KI Klaksvik has secured them the Europa Conference League group stage, with a chance still to qualify for the Europa League group stage with a win in the final qualifying round. A wonderful, historical achievement for the small club from the Faroe Islands, where the prize money from their performance in European competitions will surely give them the platform to aim even higher in future years.
An Atypical Family Reunion
Alright, so imagine you’re Óskar Hrafn Þorvaldsson, a former Icelandic professional footballer who after your playing career ended, decided to settle down and start a family. Your son, Orri Óskarsson, grows up wanting to play football as well, and when you decide to try your hand at management in the Icelandic third tier, give him his senior debut before his 14th birthday. You go on to win back to back promotions, earning you the managerial position at Breiðablik in 2020, one of Icelands top clubs. Your son Orri becomes a highly rated prospect after making his senior debut at age 13, and gets a move to FC Kobenhavn at the same time, joining their youth academy. Fast-forward 3 years, and you’ve won the Icelandic league with Breiðablik, and after beating Shamrock Rovers in the first qualifying round, are drawn against… FC Kobenhavn. Kobenhavn won the first leg away 2-0, and in the second leg are up 5-1 on aggregate. On comes your son Orri, who proceeds to score a second-half hat trick, sealing the victory for the Danish club and knocking you out of Champions League qualifiers. Talk about an awkward dinner the next time Orri comes home for a break. Currently, Breiðablik are still in contention to qualify for the Europa Conference League if they can manage to beat North Macedonian side FK Struga, while FC Kobenhaven are up 1-0 on Polish side Rakow Czestochowa going into the second leg of the final UCL qualifying round. I’m sure Óskar is rooting for Orri to make it into the Champions League group stage now!
New Arrivals to The Champions League?
In the final round of qualifying, 4 teams remain that have never made it into the Champions League group stage: Royal Antwerp, Rakow Czestochowa, Panathanaikos, and Molde. Another Greek club, AEK Athens, is looking to return for the first time since 1994-1995. Currently, Antwerp are up 1-0 on AEK Athens after the first leg in Belgium and Rakow Czestochowa are down 1-0 to FC Kobenhavn after their home leg. Molde have shown a “never say die” attitude, coming back from a first leg deficit in each of their 2 qualifying round wins over Finnish side HJK and the aforementioned KI Klaksvik. In the first leg of their final qualifying round against Galatasaray, Molde fought back from a 2-1 deficit to tie the game in the second half, before Norwegian substitute Frederik Midtsjo scored a 94′ winner for Galatasaray. This will have been especially delighting for Midtsjo, who was a former Rosenborg player and rival of Molde during his time in Norway. In other ties, Panathinaikos go home down 1-2 on aggregate to Portuguese side Braga, Maccabi Haifa and Young Boys produced a scoreless draw, and Scottish runners up Rangers drew 2-2 with PSV Eindhoven in Scotland. The next leg of fixtures will finish next week, wrapping up the qualification campaign for this year.
By the end of August, the teams competing in the 2023-2024 edition of the UEFA Champions League will be set, with the group draw taking place shortly after. I’ll be releasing a full group-by-group prediction once the draw takes place. I hope you enjoyed this article, and will enjoy watching the Champions League this year!
The Final of this years Champions League is set: the seemingly inevitable Manchester City led by Pep Guardiola will take on Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan, who are not only fighting for the trophy now, but also fighting for their competitive future in the coming seasons. In this article, I will discuss the tactics employed by both managers, the storylines of the final, and predict how we are likely to see the game play out.
Manchester City: Striving for Immortality
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side could be as little as 3 wins away from becoming the second ever English team to win the treble of the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League. They would also be the 8th club to have accomplished the treble in Europe.
Celtic (1967), Ajax (1971), PSV Eindhoven (1988), Manchester United (1999), Barcelona (2009 and 2015), Inter (2010), and Bayern Munich (2013 and 2020) are the previous clubs to have completed the feat. Guardiola already features on the list with his 2009 Barcelona side – his very first full year in charge of the team. The greatest motivation on this list for City’s fans is to join their rivals, Manchester United, as the only English clubs to have won the treble. As it stands, that 1999 treble is something United fans have held over their heads for close to a quarter of a century now. A victory at the Atatürk Stadium in Istanbul would make the treble a very likely occurrence, as City are set to clinch the Premier League title with a single win from their last 3 games, and will then have to dispatch the aforementioned Red Devils in the FA Cup final at Wembley.
So how have the Cityzens arrived at this final? By bringing back one of the oldest tactics in football, of course. When the offsides rule was changed such that only two defenders (including the keeper) were required to play an attacker onside, many English teams starting sending more players forward, and would often line up in a 2-3-5 shape (yes, 5 forwards). To counteract this, a shift that at the time was considered very defensive was made: the W-M formation. The name comes from the shape that the players form, which is a 3-2-2-3 (the front 5 make a W, while the back 5 form a M-shape). If you take the 4 midfield players and rotate them to form a diamond, or a flat line, then this looks like a version of the 3-4-3 that we still see today. However, this is NOT a 3-4-3. Here is how Guardiola’s side lines up:
The first point I want to mention is the box in midfield formed by Rodri, John Stones, Gundogan, and Kevin De Bruyne. This midfield box is a shape commonly used in buildup in modern football, but is usually formed by a player moving infield. At Barcelona, Gavi is often played as a left winger, but drifts infield to form a box with the 3 midfielders in their 4-3-3. This box shape is so popular in midfield, as it provides the 4 players with a variety of passing options. Against most opposition, the midfield box is working around at most 3 midfielders in the centre of the pitch. If the defending team brings a 4th player in to press, then this opens up space elsewhere on the pitch. This is why many teams that use this box midfield shape are high-quantity passing, possession-based sides. I’ll take another look at how this could open up space against Inter’s side later in the article.
The second main point I want to add is that this formation is not static in buildup. As many of you already know, Pep Guardiola teams play the positional-play style of football. A short explanation of positional play:
In positional play theory, the pitch is divided into spaces as shown in the image above. Simply put, no more than 2 players should be in the same vertical channel, and no more than 3 players should be in the same horizontal line to cover the full pitch as efficiently as possible and provide adequate passing options. You’d have difficulty finding a game where City showed how well drilled they are in these principles more than the second leg of their semi-final against Real Madrid. No player was stuck to a position on the field, and when one moved, the others adjusted accordingly to maintain positional-play on the field. The versatility of the City squad was also on full display, with each player showing their proficiency in different roles as the situation required. In buildup, City would often overload one side of the pitch. To me, it almost appeared as if Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan were positioning themselves in relation to Kevin De Bruyne, who is often given a free-roaming role in this system. When De Bruyne moved, with or without the ball, Gundogan and Bernardo reacted as if on cue.
When De Bruyne ran towards the right flank, an overload was created by Bernardo staying wide and moving forward, Kyle Walker moving up from his RCB position into a RWB space, and the rest of the midfield box moving over to match De Bruyne. Alternatively, De Bruyne would move all the way into the wide space, and Bernardo drifted inside to take his place in the midfield box. No matter the side of the field or the rotation of players, City’s midfield box was the only constant in a sea of movement, formed by committee with whoever was in the right position to take the spot. The fluidity was at a level higher than I’ve seen in recent memory, reminiscent of the glory days of Barcelona.
Path to the Final:
Group G: City topped their group with Dortmund, Sevilla, and Kobenhavn unsurprisingly, with little drama.
Round of 16 vs. RB Leipzig: 8-1 on aggregate, after a first leg 1-1 draw. Home field advantage seems real.
Quarterfinal vs. Bayern Munich: 4-1 on aggregate. Bayern is in a period of uncharacteristic chaos, and it’s translating to the pitch. Thomas Tuchel was given a warm welcome to his new job.
Semifinal vs. Real Madrid: 5-1 on aggregate. The score was 3-1 on aggregate going into halftime of the second leg, and after City withstood Madrid’s efforts early in the second half, Los Blancos looked resigned to their defeat
Inter: Restoring Past Success for The Future
Inter Milan had not made the Champions League semi-final stage since they won the competition in 2010 under Mourinho. Only 6 clubs have won more than Inter’s 3 UCL titles in history however, and winning this final would put them level with Ajax on 4 titles. Bringing the biggest trophy in Europe home to the San Siro would mean so much more than just the history being made, it could give Inter a much needed boost in finance and spirit to stay competitive and continue qualifying for the Champions League, which they have not failed to do since the 2016-17 season. This season, Inter’s financial position has been well known to fans and Directors of Football around Europe. To compete with billionaire-owned clubs in Europe, Inter Milan’s spending in recent years has not been sustainable. As a result of this, the club was forced to take out an emergency loan from American asset management firm Oaktree Capital totaling 275 million euros. This debt is due to be repaid in the summer of 2024, and if it cannot be repaid, Oaktree Capital could take control of the club. While the Champions League cannot provide all the revenue to make up that debt, it can certainly be said that missing out on the additional revenue that comes with playing in the Champions League would be a de-facto nail in the coffin for Inter. Below, I’ve attached the prize money breakdown for this season’s Champions League.
This season, Inter won 3 group stage games and drew 1, totalling 9.33 million euros. Reaching the final has since added another 48.2 million euros to their total, and winning the competition could take this years prize money up to over 75 million euros. This is not including broadcast revenue and match-day revenue (Inter raked in over 10 million euros of match-day revenue in their semi-final tie against AC Milan). If it couldn’t be any clearer by now, Inter need the Champions League to survive. At one point in the season, it looked in doubt whether Inter would qualify for next season’s Champions League by finishing Top 4 in Serie A. With 3 games to play, Inter now holds a 5 point lead over AC Milan in 5th place, putting them in a good position to qualify. If they fall out of the top 4 places in Serie A however, Inter will need to win this year’s Champions League final to qualify for next season’s competition. Talk about pressure. With the stakes known, let’s look at how Inter will likely line up.
Since Milan Skriniar went down with a spinal injury in the first leg vs. Porto, the only change to Inter’s main 5-3-2 formation arrived. Darmian was dropped back to RCB to take Skriniar’s place, and Denzel Dumfries came in at RWB. While Inter would love to have Skriniar in this final for his defensive capabilities, Dumfries and Darmian make for a much more offensive right side than Darmian and Skriniar. Accordingly, this formation will play more like a 3-5-2 than a 5-3-2.
Look for Federico Dimarco to keep a more reserved role on the left-hand side to allow him to mark Bernardo or De Bruyne when they run into the space. This will mean Mkhitaryan will be the more offensive midfielder behind Calhanoglu, while Barella, an excellent ball-winner, will play more of a box-to-box role. I can also see Barella dropping back centrally to allow Calhanoglu and Mikhitaryan to rotate into a box shape with the two strikers.
On Inter’s right flank, much will depend on how well Grealish and Gundogan can balance their offensive contributions with the marking of Denzel Dumfries, who Inter will look to find in space with switches of play. When City press, they often look to split the field in half down the centre line and overload the flank. If City can prevent the switch of play from left to right over to Dumfries, then Inter will find it much more difficult to break through.
The biggest unknown for City’s defense will be how they will approach the 2-striker front of Inter. City have yet to play a team that utilizes two strikers in the Champions League this season. It will be interesting to see if Rodri and John Stones opt to cover the strikers more often, or move upfield to press Inter’s midfielders. If Inter are able to counter with numbers into space behind City’s line of Grealish-Gundogan-De Bruyne-Bernardo, I can see several dangerous chances being created.
If City’s shape in defense is the 3-2-4-1 shown above, then I believe Inter will have plenty of opportunities to create chances. If Barella and Mkhitaryan can get behind Gundogan and De Bruyne, Inter will have an overload in the centre of the pitch, leaving City’s CB’s with constant decisions to make on whether to move wide and cover the wingbacks, or stay centrally to cover the strikers and runs from the midfield. The same goes for City’s wide players covering Dumfries and Dimarco. If the advanced midfield line of Manchester City neglects their defensive responsibilities, Inter will look far more dangerous. However, out of possession Manchester City often move into a 4-4-2 or a 4-1-4-1 shape. Personally, I think a 4-1-4-1 out of possession would provide cover in defense across the field and prevent Inter from finding man advantages, as shown below.
In this shape, City are not left with any free attackers in the centre of the pitch, as Rodri can move centrally to cover Inter’s front 3, freeing up Akanji and Walker to close down wide areas when needed. When defending in the second half vs. Real Madrid, City opted for this 4-1-4-1 shape, and I would not be surprised to see it in the final.
Path to the Final:
Group C: Inter finished 2nd behind Bayern Munich in a group that saw Barcelona sent to the Europa League.
Round of 16 vs. Porto: 1-0 on aggregate, Inter went to Porto and held a clean sheet to move on.
Quarterfinal vs. Benfica: A 5-3 tie on aggregate that looks closer than it was. Inter won a strong away game 2-0, and then were up 5-1 on aggregate in the 78′ of the second leg before two late Benfica goals gave the Portuguese side something to keep their heads high about.
Semifinal vs. AC Milan: 3-0 on aggregate. What could be the final Milan derby at the historical San Siro was more impressive in the record books than on the pitch, where AC Milan failed to show up.
June 10th, 2023
This is the date that the Champions League Final will be played, in Istanbul, Turkiye. We’ve laid out the tactics, the stories to watch, and what this win would mean to each club. All that’s left is to wait for the big match! If you’re still reading by now, thank you for your time and I hope you found something to enjoy in this preview.
futbird 