It’s time to talk about Dean Huijsen. The 19 year old centreback, born in the Netherlands, grew up in Marbella, now showing what Dutch total football with a Spanish touch is all about. Huijsen is balling out at Bournemouth this season after joining from Juventus Next Gen in the summer. Another smart piece of business by Bournemouth, recognizing Juventus’s need to sell promising prospects to raise funds for the here and now. Signed for around a 15M euro fee, Huijsen was seen as a depth option for Bournemouth now, but was never expected to contribute as much as he has. Compared to other CB’s in the top European leagues, Huijsen registers in the 85th percentile or higher for all offensive metrics. Not to forget the primary focus of a central defender, Huijsen has been no slouch in his own end this year. See his comparison to other top league CB’s from FBRef, below:
As you can see, this is a CB who wants to be on the ball. Progressive passes, carrying the ball, getting forward to receive passes behind the first line of press, he’s been doing it all this year. At only 19, one has to wonder if the sky is the limit for Huijsen. Take social media rumours for what you will, but the fact I’ve seen him linked with interest from Real Madrid is at the very least a testament to his play this year.
The young Spanish/Dutchman has shown a love for the biggest stage already. Bagged the game winner over Spurs at home, and 3 games later scored again at Old Trafford leading to another Bournemouth win over a Top 6 opponent. In his last outing vs Everton, Huijsen did his part and then some in a clean sheet performance, registering 9 clearances and 4 ball recoveries, while winning the majority of his duels. At the rate he’s going, I wouldn’t be surprised if a club tries to prize Huijsen away from the south coast of England, with a hefty profit going to Bournemouth, of course.
He’s one to keep an eye on. Dean Huijsen. Remember the name.
It is obviously important to have a good goalkeeper if you wish to win football matches. But should you have two? This is the question I wanted to take a look at today. It’s something that has caught my eye before which got spurred on (pun intended) by transfer news today.
Spurs have signed 21-year old Czech youth international Antonín Kinský from Slavia Prague today. If you looked him up and are now wondering why Wikipedia says he’s 49, that’s due to his father sharing the same name and profession. In the Czech league this year, the younger Kinský was covering himself in glory, holding the highest save percentage across Europe’s Top 10 leagues, as well as looking mighty confident in build-up with the ball at his feet. The intent of the club with this signing is for Kinský to compete with Guglielmo Vicario for the club’s #1 keeper role, rather than be a set backup right from the start. This is what made me think of similar instances, most notably coming to mind the Alisson/Kelleher duo at Liverpool, or Arsenals’ Raya/Ramsdale duo last season. So lets take a look at what the pros and cons seem to be of having pair of “starting” keepers.
In the case of Liverpool, it seems to have been almost entirely beneficial keeping two quality keepers at the club. However, I’m not sure how much of Liverpool’s ability to do this was due to Kelleher not demanding a move. That’s the thing with this situation, you have to get a bit lucky with both keepers wanting to stay and compete with each other. They’re professional athletes who want to play football, it makes sense that a move to become a first-choice keeper again would appeal to whichever of the two ends up getting less playing time. In Liverpool’s case, the age gap between Alisson and Kelleher has helped, as with 6 years’ less experience than his Brazilian counterpart, it is perhaps easier for Kelleher to accept being the “backup” unless Alisson gets injured.
Now in Arsenal’s case, it seemed to not work as well long term. When David Raya was brought in from Brentford, Mikel Arteta said that he had two #1 keepers now, and that they would be competing for the starting spot. How much truth there was in this statement, I’m not sure, because very quickly into the season David Raya was starting near every game, and Ramsdale was already looking at summer transfers. Arteta couldn’t satisfy both keepers with enough playing time but he also might have personally considered Ramsdale the backup to Raya, and just said otherwise to the press. Raya is three years older than Ramsdale, who is 26, so I can see why Ramsdale might not have wanted to stick around to be Raya’s backup.
So it seems obvious that having two starting keepers is better than one, but the downside to this is how difficult it is to KEEP two starting-quality keepers for more than one or two seasons. That’s not to mention keeping both keepers happy. The arrival of a new keeper to compete for the starting role could damage the original starting keeper’s confidence. What happens with Vicario and Kinsky at Spurs will have to be seen. My guess is that for the next season or two they will compete for the #1 role, and then if Vicario wins the starting role, Kinsky is more likely to accept less play-time without requesting a transfer due to his age. Vicario is 7 years older than Kinsky, which is similar to the Alisson/Kelleher age gap. If all goes ideally, the competition will make both Kinsky and Vicario play better, then when the older of the two keepers moves on from Spurs, Kinsky will be very much in his prime to take over.
Think about what you’d prefer at your team! A clear #1 and #2 keeper tandem, or this #1a and #1b duo that we are starting to see more teams target in recruitment. There’s no one correct answer.
Hey Everyone, quick post here. It’s pretty clear to anyone who’s been paying attention to the Premier League that the past few weeks haven’t exactly been incredible for Tottenham Hotspur. Two wins from their last eleven games in all competitions, four draws, five losses. Perhaps it was a really tough schedule? I’ll let you decide, here are the opponents from the past twelve matches, and whether Spurs were home (H) or away (A):
Wins: Southampton (A), Manchester United (H)
Draws: Roma (H), Fulham (H), Rangers (A), Wolves(H)
Losses: Bournemouth (A), Chelsea (H), Liverpool (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Newcastle (H)
When you look at the opposition, its clear that the only wins have been against teams who would self-identify as “struggling” this season, and even against Man United, Spurs nearly threw the win away (albeit from two shocking errors by Fraser Forster). Several of the draws involved late goals as well! Mats Hummels scored a 91′ equalizer for Roma, Kulusevski was needed with a 75′ contribution to rescue a point against Rangers, Jorgen Strand Larsen executed a brilliant finish in the 87′ to tie the game for Wolves most recently. With a few chances going a different way, we might not even be having this conversation now.
Injuries have also been somewhat of a crisis. An overall lack of proper squad depth (players who are ready to compete in the Premier League right now) has forced several first-choice players to play far too many minutes, leading to a pileup of injuries. As it stands, Spurs are without Destiny Udogie, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, and Guglielmo Vicario for most if not all of the month of January before the first of them could return. Spurs might as well be without their captain Son Heung-Min, as he is showing signs of having played too much this season, and could do with a rest. However, the top 3 candidates to step into his position on the pitch and contribute, being Richarlison, Wilson Odobert, and Mikey Moore, are actually all currently injured. It’s a huge mess, and Ange Postecoglou has his work cut out for him to try and navigate this stretch, as it is going to be crucial for him to keep his job.
Most people can agree that Ange has so far done a pretty good job at Spurs. Sure you can criticize some things, like perhaps the high intensity training and tactics are causing some of this injury crisis, but overall he has moved Spurs in the right direction. However, the modern football world is not very patient with managers. The average manager at Spurs over the last few years has gotten about 18 months on the job before results hit a poor stretch, Daniel Levy feels the heat on his neck, and then makes a rash change. Reminder: he sacked Jose Mourinho the week of the League Cup final, which would’ve been Spurs first trophy since 2008.
It is due to this history in the league, and at Spurs specifically, that I worry for Ange’s position. December and January are probably the worst two months to have players injured in, due to the intense fixture congestion. Spurs need more players in January – I’m talking the busiest January window the club has ever had. The foundations for a bright future with Ange are there, but Spurs need to bring in reinforcements in January so that results don’t drop so far that Levy makes yet another managerial change.
As I’m writing this, it has been confirmed by Fabrizio Romano that Spurs are closing up a deal to sign a young Czech keeper from Slavia Prague, Antonin Kinsky, to challenge Vicario for the future #1 keeper role. This is already a step in the right direction, but more is needed, and specifically an established player or two to help all the youth on this team.
I’ll keep you updated on what goes on this January, hope you all have a great day!
Auf Wiedersehen, football fans! It is the eve of the summer tournament hosted by Germany, the 2024 Euros. Now I’m sure everyone reading this knows at least a little bit about the England, France, Germany, and Portugal squads that I would consider favorites to win this tournament. What about the other 20 squads competing for Europe’s greatest international prize, and does anyone else have a good chance to win the whole thing? I wanted to take a brief look at each squad today and give my prediction on how far they could “realistically” go. Realistically is in quotation marks because as we all know, this is football and anything can happen! So for example, if I say a country’s realistic best finish would be a Round of 16 exit, that does not mean I do not think they have any chance to win the tournament but rather that I think it would be a surprise if they were to advance further. With that said, let’s get right into it.
Group A: Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland
We start with the host nation Germany and Group A. Under Julian Nagelsmann, I expect to see Germany use a 4-2-3-1 formation. Ever-present German international Joshua Kimmich will likely start at RB, with a CB pairing of Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah alongside Stuttgart LB Maximilian Mittelstaedt, who is coming off a very strong Bundesliga season. A double pivot in midfield of Robert Andrich and Toni Kroos seems to be Nagelsmann’s preferred duo to start, with Jamal Musiala, Ilkay Gundogan, and Florian Wirtz set up behind striker Kai Havertz. Florian Wirtz is likely to play as a left winger on the team sheet, which is a departure from his usual #10 role at Leverkusen, however the fluidity of this front 4 means that Wirtz will be able to drift inside of the pitch to form a 4 man midfield alongside Gundogan, allowing for overlapping runs from Mittelstaedt and for Jamal Musiala to drive forward from the right wing more. Germany should top this group unless a shock result happens, and I believe they have the talent to go all the way. The home crowd behind them will surely be a massive boost to the players who will be very motivated to bring home their first Euro championship since 1996.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Scotland and their Tartan Army will be bringing all of the good vibes to Germany this summer, with the travelling fanbase being one of the most welcomed at international tournaments due to their passion. Scotland manager Steve Clarke may well have a few tricks up his sleeve, and he will need to in order to get the best out of his star players. Scotland have two standout left-backs in Andrew Robertson (who will be captaining the side) and Kieran Tierney. John McGinn will be asked to play a big role all over the pitch, while we may see Scott McTominay deployed in the most Libero of Libero roles. Clarke has experimented with McTominay playing as a right sided CB in a back 3, with full license to roam upfield and crash the box in attack. We are likely looking at a 5-4-1 formation, with Billy Gilmour and Celtic’s Callum McGregor as a midfield pair to provide stability while McGinn and McTominay roam around the pitch. While not guarantees to make it out of this group, I do believe Scotland can qualify for the Round of 16 if they bring their best football, but find it difficult to see them making it too much further into the knockouts
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
The Hungarian side is also a bit of a tough prediction. On one hand, they have an aging defence, anchored by Leipzig man Willi Orban, and Omonia Nicosia defender Adam Lang, both 31 years of age. On the other hand, they have a very competent attacking trio who will set up narrowly in this 3-4-2-1 formation, with Liverpool star man Dominik Szoboszlai and Freiburg’s Rolland Sallai in the 10 positions behind Ferencvaros striker Barnabas Varga. Young Milos Kerkez, playing at AFC Bournemouth, will play an important role for this Hungarian squad out wide, being asked to contribute on both ends of the pitch. This Hungary side also have a good amount of young talent coming off the bench, with the chance to change the game with their energy and make their mark on the international stage. I believe Hungary should be favorites to finish 2nd behind Germany in this group, but if not will likely advance as one of the top 4 third place teams. If they advance and get a favorable matchup in the Round of 16, there is every chance they can win a knockout match.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-finals
Finally we come to Switzerland. Just like Mexico keeper Memo Ochoa, who seems to come out from hiding every time the World Cup rolls around, Xherdan Shaqiri always seems to bring his absolute best form to the Swiss national team at the Euros. Expect the Swiss to also line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Granit Xhaka, fresh off a Bundesliga title-winning season at Leverkusen, will anchor the Swiss midfield alongside Bologna’s Remo Freuler. Manuel Akanji and Ricardo Rodriguez with his 115 caps will be at the centre of the backline providing a strong defensive base. Young Burnley striker Zeki Amdouni is prepared to make his arrival on Europe’s biggest stage and will be hoping to provide the attacking punch his team needs, although he will be competing with Noah Okafor and Kwadwo Duah for this position. Young, highly rated defender Leonidas Stergiou is also primed to make his appearance partnering Akanji and Rodriguez in defence. I believe this Swiss team has a relatively low floor (could very well not progress from the group stage), but if they do progress to the knockouts they should not be taken lightly. Peril has come to those who have made that mistake in the past.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania
We begin the chosen “Group of Death” with the Spanish. While the Spanish are again a bit of an unknown in terms of how they will deal with the best teams at this tournament having only played Andorra and Northern Ireland in the final 2 friendlies before the Euros begin, they certainly have the talent to go far. Alvaro Morata will captain the side and start up front, most likely alongside Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. Lamine and Nico are one of the most exciting winger duos to watch at this tournament, having both had standout seasons at Barcelona and Athletic Club Bilbao respectively. They will play in front of what is a very strong midfield with Pedri and Fabian Ruiz playing in front of Rodri, the best defensive midfielder in the world right now (and I don’t think there is much debate about that). Defence is where Spain’s weakness might lie. The experience of UCL winners Dani Carvajal and Nacho Fernandez will certainly be a big boost, the latter likely to start at CB alongside Ben Le Normand. Alejandro Grimaldo, who might just have been the best performing LB in Europe this season at Leverkusen (10 goals and 13 assists in the Bundesliga for the champions), should start at LB with Marc Cucurella as his backup. Surprisingly, Pedro Porro did not make Luis de la Fuente’s final Euro squad after a stellar season for Spurs, leaving the aging Carvajal and the already aged Jesus Navas as RB options. However, de la Fuente has experimented with Atletico’s Marcos Llorente at RB, who is naturally a midfielder but is extremely versatile in all parts of the game. Through midfield and attack, Spain have very solid depth which may help them gain an edge late in close matches. The likes of Dani Olmo, Alex Baena, Mikel Merino, Martin Zubimendi, Ferran Torres and Fermin Lopez are all available for de la Fuente to call upon. Overall the weakness of this Spain team may be as it has been in past years, a true goal threat at striker. Alvaro Morata is no bad player just to be clear, but we have often seen Spanish sides dominate possession in the opposition’s final third without being able to convert that dominance into goals. If Spain can produce balanced scoring from midfield and wing, they could go all the way.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Forgive me if I sound emotional when talking about Croatia, as this is almost certainly the last international tournament for Croatian legend Luka Modric. The motivation to make the most of this tournament will be strong amongst the Croatian side, with a very strong team throughout ready to punch above their weight yet again. While I am unsure what Zlatko Dalic’s exact starting lineup will be for their first game of the Euros, there are some positions I can expect to know the starters ahead of time. The midfield will most likely be Modric and Kovacic on either side of Marcelo Brozovic, with the next generation of Croatian midfielders ready to be called upon in needed. Luka Sucic and Martin Baturina will make their first major tournament appearances, with Sucic having been touted as Modric’s successor in the national team for a few years now. Josip Stanisic and Josko Gvardiol will most likely start at either full-back position having both enjoyed very strong seasons at club level this year. There is a strong veteran cast to select from at forward, with the likes of Andre Kramaric, Ante Budimir, Lovro Majer, and Ivan Perisic available. Having made it to the finals of the UEFA Nations League last summer, only losing out to Spain on penalty kicks, there is every reason to believe that this Croatia team is still built for knockout games in international tournaments. I would not be surprised to see them knock out a tournament favorite in the quarterfinals, although I would be surprised to see them win the entire tournament (but not disappointed).
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Finalists
Then on to the Azzurri, who are not widely considered favorites to win this Euros, but have often performed at their best in such circumstances. An injury issue has come up late for Luciano Spalletti, with Giorgio Scalvini, Francesco Acerbi and Nicolo Fagioli all picking up injuries in the leadup to the tournament. Scalvini and Acerbi will miss the entire tournament, while Fagioli is confirmed to be out for the first match against Albania. That being said, Italy still have a strong squad and should be considered one of the best-of-the-rest, in the sense that they are not a tournament favorite. Expect to see a starting lineup of Donnarumma in net, a back 3 of Darmian, Buongiorno and Bastoni, di Lorenzo and diMarco at wingbacks on either side of Jorghino and Barella, with Federico Chiesa and Pellegrini/Frattesi behind Scamacca up top. Spalletti looks to be choosing a 3-4-2-1 formation that most of his players will be comfortable in rather than using his 4-3-3 tactics that worked so well for him at Napoli. I believe that the Azzurri will only have a better chance at surprising everyone by taking home the trophy because they do not have the pressure of being a tournament favorite on them. I expect them to qualify from this group without much worry, and have the potential to make a deep knockout run. We should not be utterly shocked if Italy do go on to win this years tournament, although I am not saying that is the most likely outcome.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Finally we come to Albania. This is truly a case of poor luck, as they have been drawn into the toughest group they could have imagined. Albania was in great form in Euro qualifiers, topping their qualification group over the lies of Czechia and Poland. They have not had their chance to test themselves vs one of Europe’s best teams yet though, with pre-euro friendlies against Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan to prepare them for the tournament. It is no disrespect to the Albanian side to say that they are almost certainly going to finish last in this group, despite having some decent talent with the likes of Armando Broja, Kristjan Asllani, and Berat Djimsiti in the squad. I only hope to see Albania score some goals in this group (hopefully the first goal of the game to put some nerves onto their opposition) and give their travelling fans something to celebrate.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Out in Group Stage
Group C: Denmark, England, Serbia, Slovenia
Let’s start Group C by taking a look at the Denmark squad, who are returning several players from their Euro 2020 semi-final appearance. Kasper Schmeichel is still going strong at age 37 and will be backstopping this Danish team yet again. Bright fullback talents Alexander Bah (Benfica) and Victor Kristiansen (Bologna) will play alongside Joachim Andersen and Jannik Vestergaard/Simon Kjaer in defence. Captain Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has a very active role in this Danish team, especially in attack where he moves up the pitch much more often than he does at club level for Spurs. Alongside Hojbjerg in midfield will be Sporting CP standout Morten Hjulmand, who offers great defensive workrate alongside progressive passing. The third member of this midfield is most likely to either be Andreas Christensen in a holding role, allowing Hojbjerg and Hjulmand to move further up the pitch, or Christian Eriksen in a 10 role, with the double pivot covering more defensive ground. Young Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund will lead the line, accompanied by Andreas Skov-Olsen and Mikkel Damsgaard. Expect to see the likes of Jonas Wind, Thomas Delaney, Joachim Maehle, Kasper Dolberg, and Yussuf Poulsen feature prominently as well for Kasper Hjulmand’s squad. I believe the Danes should be favorites for a top 2 spot in this group securing them automatic qualification for the Round of 16, but from there it all depends on the draw. An unfavourable draw could see them up against it to qualify for the Quarter-Finals, but avoiding one of the giants in the first knockout round could see this team have another shot at making it as far as a semi-final.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
England. Oh England, what to expect from you? With arguably the most talented player pool to pick from this year, England are considered strong favorites to win this year’s Euros. That being said, Gareth Southgate is still Gareth Southgate, who has struggled to make the most of this “golden generation” of England players, with his best result being the Euro 2020 final where they memorably lost to Italy at Wembley, on penalties. Criticism can be made of Southgates squad selection and tactics, especially in the biggest matches where he often opts to play very defensive. The notable absences of Jarrad Branthwaite, Jack Grealish and James Maddison could prove to be hurtful to England’s chances in international play, where they are much more likely to come across a strong defensive side than one that is willing to press them high up the pitch (which would benefit England). Several young faces are making their first appearance at a major tournament for England including Adam Wharton, Kobbie Mainoo, and Eberechi Eze. I think England is most set up to struggle against Serbia due to the way the Serbians will set up. Expect to see a 4-2-3-1, with Pickford starting in net, Walker, Stones, Guehi, and Trippier across the defensive line, Trent Alexander-Arnold partnering Declan Rice in midfield, with Jude Bellingham being the offensive focal point as the 10. Harry Kane is obviously going to be the starting striker, leaving the most uncertainty around the wing positions. When playing with 2 wingers who like to cut inside and drop deep to receive the ball, this can play into the hands of a team setup to defend their box with numbers and crowd the middle of the pitch (like Serbia). Will we see Phil Foden on the left and Bukayo Saka on the right, or will Eze, Gordon, or Cole Palmer get a start? This I cannot answer, but England should be favorites to top this group. How far they can go? Well that’s up to Southgate.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Now for Serbia, who I definitely think can progress from this group, either in 2nd place over the Danes or as one of the best 4 third placed teams. Specifically, I believe their match against England will be a very tactically interesting match. Serbia are likely to set up in a 5-3-2, with a very strong strike duo of Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandr Mitrovic. For games against teams that are considered favorites, this will mean 8 players defending around the edge of their box, stacking the middle of the pitch and making it extremely difficult to play through Serbia with some quick one touch passing. When they win the ball back, Serbia will rely on support in attack from their wingbacks. On the left side this will be one of two Filip’s, either Kostic (Juventus) or Mladenovic (Panathanaikos). On the right this should be Dusan Tadic or or PAOK’s Andrija Zivkovic. The midfield 3 shouldn’t see more than 2 players join in attack, as they have a lot of defensive tendencies. There is enough talent in midfield to have solid depth options, and expect the Serbian team to defend as a unit in numbers. I think if the Serbs advance from this group (which I expect them to) they will provide a very difficult challenge for any team to face them in the Round of 16. It was not so long ago that we saw Neymar completely taken out of the game by this Serbian defence in the last World Cup. If there is one thing you can expect from this Serbian team, it is effort. They will leave everything on the pitch and should make this group’s qualification race quite interesting. I expect England to struggle the most against this side, and the game with Denmark should also be a tight contest.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Finally to Slovenia, the last team in this group. They are also, barring any shock results or truly all-time performances from Benjamin Sesko, likely to finish last in the group table. It is no disrespect to the Slovenes, who have done brilliantly to qualify for this tournament. They have alternated between using a 4-4-2 during the Euro qualifiers, to a 4-3-3 formation in the most recent friendlies. A useful data point for the predictions were Slovenia’s matches in qualifying vs Denmark, their group-mates here. Those ties ended 1-1 in Slovenia, and 2-1 to Denmark in Copenhagen, showing that this (potentially unknown to many) Slovenia side is no pushover. This is in great part due to the their keeper, Jan Oblak. Oblak is approaching his 10th season at Atletico Madrid, and has accumulated 333 appearances for Diego Simeone’s men in his career at the highest level, as well as 65 caps for his national team. Slovenia’s lack of appearances at major international tournaments is the only reason Oblak does not have more caps, as he has been a nailed on starter in net for over 10 years now. A strong goalkeeper can win you games, or at the very least prevent you from losing them. Oblak will be protected by standout defender Jaka Bijol, who at age 25 has already earned 49 caps for Slovenia, and currently plies his trade at Udinese in Serie A. The rest of the defence is well experienced for the national team but perhaps lacks that bit of quality that comes from not playing at the top level of European football. Erik Janza at LB currently plays for Polish side Gornik Zabrze, Bijol will be partnered at CB with likely either Vanja Drkusic or David Brekalo, who play in Russia and the MLS, respectively. Right-back Zan Karnicik has spent most of his career playing domestically in Slovenia. In the 4-3-3, the midfield will be comprised of Jasmin Kurtic, Tomi Horvat, and Adam Gnezda Cerin to start matches, which follows the trend of lesser known names but a strong blend of experience and youth, with 129 NT caps between these three. Kurtic is the veteran presence in midfield, having earned 91 of those caps himself. On the wings, Andraz Sporar and Jan Mlakar will likely line up on either side of Slovenia’s starboy, Benjamin Sesko. The RB Leipzig striker has scored 14 goals in his first season in the German Bundesliga after playing for Austrian Red Bull side Salzburg beforehand, and was wanted by many of europe’s biggest clubs (with the most interest from Arsenal) before he re-signed at Leipzig, committing to at least one more year in Germany. He is a strong all-around striker, equally adept at finishing in the air or on the ground. Slovenia will heavily rely on Sesko to be clinical if they are to realize their dreams of making it out of this group. I must give a shoutout to my favorite club, Bodo/Glimt’s only representative at this tournament (thanks to Norway not qualifying), Nino Zugelj! After significantly upping his game this season for the Norwegian champs, Zugelj received his first national team cap in the leadup to this tournament, and has been selected in the final squad. He will be looking to change the game off the bench at the RW position if called upon. In short, this team is Jan Oblak, Benjamin Sesko, and several industrious players to play between them. Slovenia will not be an easy game for any team in this group, but chances are they could fail to win a match in this group stage and see an early exit. However, I won’t count them out right away, as in a 3 match group stage, 1 win could mean everything to qualification.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
Group D: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France
To start off with Group D, I will be looking at the team that likely has the worst chances of qualifying from the group: Poland. After having been touted as a tournament dark horse for much of the past decade and failing to deliver on that promise, Poland’s key players are approaching the ends of their career, and with a late injury picked up by Robert Lewandowski, they will have a mountain of a challenge to qualify from the group. Wojciech Szczesny, now age 34, is still between the sticks for Poland, and he will likely have either a 5-2-3 or 5-3-2 in front of him for this tournament. There is not an absence of young talent in this squad however, with the next generation of Polish players having made their way into the senior team. The standout player of this generation of players has to be Roma’s Nicola Zalewski, who will play as a LWB in this setup, but also can play up front as a LW. Brighton’s Jakub Moder will be looking to be called upon in midfield, and Arsenal’s Jakub Kiwior is already a nailed on starter at the LCB position. Poland should be difficult to break down in defense, but the real question lies in where their goals will come from, especially if they are without record goalscorer Robert Lewandowski for the entire group stage. Being in the same group as France and the Netherlands, alongside a very underrated Austria side will make the Polish task difficult. They have the talent to take a result against any team, but likely can not be relied upon to do so. While it is not impossible for Poland to qualify from the group, it is also not impossible that they finish with 0 points from this group stage. I find it hard to see Poland qualifying from the group, and if they do harder to see them winning a knockout stage game. The Polish faithful will be praying for Lewandowski’s return as early as possible.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Out in Group Stage
Onto the “Oranje”, Ronald Koeman’s contingent from the Netherlands. They suffered two major injuries in the lead up to the Euro’s opening matches in their midfield, with standout performers Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners both out for the tournament. The Dutch have a vast player pool to select from, and both Ian Maatsen and Joshua Zirkzee have been called up to fill the vacant spaces in the team. Given the midfield injuries, I would expect to see the Dutch play a 4-2-3-1 formation, allowing their attacking talent to fill the space left by the midfield losses. Alternatively, Koeman may use a 3-4-2-1 formation. In classic Netherlands fashion, there is a wealth of CB talent available, and we will likely see a CB playing at LB in this team. Nathan Ake would be the first choice here, with young Spurs star Micky van de Ven ready to offer his blistering pace when Ake begins to tire in a match. Denzel Dumfries offers impressive output at both ends of the pitch at RB, and will likely be backed up by versatile Feyenoord defender Lutsharel Geertruida. Virgil van Dijk and Stefan de Vrij will likely start at CB, with Matthijs de Light and Daley Blind offering cover. In midfield, Ryan Gravenberch will be asked to carry a lot of the load now, and will likely be partnered by one of the PSV duo of Schouten or Veerman. In attack, the Dutch have strong depth, and we are likely to see Leipzig star Xavi Simons at the heart of it as the 10. Leverkusen RWB Jeremie Frimpong will play up front as a RW, with Cody Gakpo taking a left inside forward role behind Memphis Depay. If no further injuries occur, this Dutch team definitely has the talent to go all the way, but like always it depends on the knockout round draw. Expect the match between France and the Netherlands to be the highlight of this group featuring a plethora of very good footballers.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Ralf Ragnick has transformed this Austria team into what can only be described as a team greater than the sum of its parts. His high pressing philosophy is well suited to this Austria side, and even without star defender David Alaba, will present an unwelcome challenge to any opponents. Experienced striker Marko Arnautovic leads the line, supported by a wealth of young talent in attacking midfield behind him: Patrick Wimmer, Christoph Baumgartner, and Roman Schmid were all selected for Austria’s pre-tournament friendly win over Serbia, with all 3 being 24 years of age or younger. Nicolas Seiwald adds to this trend from midfield, providing a creative spark. Seiwald should be partnered by veteran Konrad Laimer to provide a good balance for their double pivot. In defence, Ragnick has not given much away in terms of his selection, using two entirely different back 4 combinations in the two pre-tournament friendlies. The goalkeeper selection is also uncertain, with Heinz Lindner and Patrick Pentz are the more established keepers, while young Niklas Hedl (Football Manager addicts like myself will recognize that name), is the future of the Austrian national team in net and might just make an appearance at this tournament. If everything clicks, this Austrian team will at worst be a team no favourite will want to be drawn against in the knockoutst, and at best could make a strong run at this summer’s Euros.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Semi-Finals
Finally, France. I probably have the least insight to offer here, as this French team is very well known, having won the 2018 World Cup and reached the finals of the 2022 World Cup. Didier Deschamps’s managerial credentials cannot be doubted, although perhaps his loyalty to his top performers of past tournaments may start to affect the peak this France team can achieve in the coming years. Ibrahima Konate will likely partner Dayot Upamecano at CB, despite William Saliba having become one of the best CB’s in the Premier League. Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez are pretty nailed-on as starters at the fullback positions, but now for my favorite part of France’s team this year: N’GOLO N’GOLO, KANTE! The constantly smiling French midfielder makes his return to the national team for this year’s Euros as perhaps the biggest surprise of Deschamps team selection. France and neutral fans alike had no complaints, as we all love seeing Kante on the pitch. Kante, Camavinga, Youssouf Fofana, and young PSG star Warren Zaire-Emery are the players competing for the two midfield places in this team, and I would expect Deschamps to default to experience, starting Kante and Camavinga until shown a reason not to. Ousmane Dembele, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud will make up the attacking quartet, with a wealth of talent off the bench. Bradley Barcola, Randal Kolo-Muani, Kingsley Coman and Marcus Thuram are all available for Deschamps to call upon if needed. There’s no mincing words on this squad, they are arguably the strongest in the tournament, and if you include the manager in your assessment, they are very likely the strongest squad at this summer’s tournament. Nobody would be surprised if Mbappe and Co. take home the big prize.
Realistic Best Potential Finish: Winners
Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania
This group offers a lot of unpredictability, which is my way of saying the favourites on paper (Belgium) have noticeable weaknesses. They’ve played 3 different formations in their most recent 3 matches, so it is hard to predict what will be used for their opening match vs Slovakia. Instead, lets look at the talent they have at their disposal. In attack, Romelu Lukaku or Lois Openda are the main two striker options, with Charles de Ketelaere as another choice. Jeremy Doku, Leandro Trossard, Johan Bakayoko and Yannick Carrasco offer support from the wings. Group E fullbacks will have their work cut out for them dealing with this group. Andre Onana and Kevin de Bruyne should both play prominent roles in midfield, with up and comers such as Arthur Vermeeren and Aster Vranckx joining the national team for this tournament. The weakness of the Belgium team is in defence: no Thibaut Courtois available due to injury, so Koen Casteels will start in net. Zeno Debast, the young Anderlecht defender with 8 caps by age 20, and Arthur Theate are the only defenders with reasonable pace in this side which is full of veterans in defence (while only 26, Wout Faes can hardly be described as pacey and has the pace of 37 year old Jan Vertonghen). Axel Witsel is still in the squad, while Thomas Meunier and Timothy Castagne make up the rest of the defensive options. Belgium will rely on a potent attack to outscore opponents, and will not pick up many clean sheets in this tournament I believe. However their attack is so good it should still give them the edge to finish first in this group, though I think any of three teams could top this group depending on how the group stage plays out.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Semi-Finals
Before I begin discussing Slovakia, I should offer a disclaimer so you can decide whether what I say is in any way biased: I am Slovak-Canadian and am indescribably excited for Slovakia to begin their third ever Euro tournament with great optimism. HOWEVER, I’ll start off with the weaknesses of this slovak side to try to be unbiased. Aside from the retirement of possibly Slovakia’s greatest ever player Marek Hamsik (who joins this squad as the assistant coach), that weakness is scoring goals. In the lead-up to the Euro’s starting, Slovakia recorded back to back 4-0 wins over San Marino and Wales though. Given that those two teams are not the toughest competition in Europe, we should not overreact to the scoring, but Slovakia scored 17 goals and conceded 8 across the Euro qualifiers under Francesco Calzona, with half of the goals conceded coming to tournament favorites Portugal. In those two matches, only a goal separated Slovakia from Portugal, with a 1-0 loss in Bratislava followed by a thrilling 3-2 loss in Portugal. This bodes well for Slovakia’s ability to play against the best teams, as if it was their day both of those matches could’ve gone the other way. Slovakia likely have the best defence in this group, with Martin Dubravka in goal, and Milan Skriniar anchoring a defensive unit that should include Copenhagen CB Dennis Vavro, who has shown great ability on the ball in the lead-up to this tournament, and current active highest cap-holder Peter Pekarik at RB. Pekarik, 37 years old now, has amassed 127 caps for the Slovak national team and joins a defence full of experience. At LB, and for me the player who could potentially be Slovakia’s player of the tournament, is David Hancko. Hancko is a bit of a unicorn. Tall, physically strong, good pace and with great ability on the ball, Hancko is comfortable playing CB as well as LB, so he will offer defensive coverage as well as some beautifully whipped crosses into the box. The Slovak midfield 3 of Calzona’s 4-3-3 formation will be comprised of 234 national team caps between holding midfielder and Napoli man, Stanislav Lobotka, with Juraj Kucka and Ondrej Duda on either side of him. Keep an eye out for Slovakia on set-pieces, especially Duda’s deliveries. This is not bias but deserved praise when I say Duda’s corner delivery is better than many Premier League level players, able to put the ball in with pace and height to get past the first defender, before showing the ability to drop the ball right on the head of the first Slovak player at the near post. Excellent set piece delivery and having 3 CB-sized players in the backline makes for a dangerous recipe for defenders. Genk’s Patrik Hrosovsky and Hamburg’s Lazslo Benes will be the first options of the bench in midfield, with 21 year old Tomas Rigo potentially getting his first taste of major action. Up front young Boavista striker Robert Bozenik will start as the main man up front, with Sparta Prague’s Lukas Haraslin being a sure starter on the left wing. At right wing, Ivan Schranz is likely to start matches, where he often contributes just as much in tracking back and winning the ball as he does in attack which could be invaluable to a Slovak side that will not be able to be a possession dominant team in this tournament. 22 year old Tomas Suslov (Duda’s teammate at Hellas Verona in Italy) and David Duris are both solid options to be subbed on for Schranz. The one player in attack that I hope you all get the chance to see play is 18 year old Feyenoord winger Leo Sauer, who is without a doubt the best attacking prospect Slovakia has produced in my lifetime. Sauer moved to Feyenoord at 16 and became a regular squad player under (now Liverpool boss) Arne Slot this past season. In March, Sauer became the youngest ever player to play for the Slovak senior national team, and has his second cap from the recent pre-tournament friendlies. I believe the top 3 teams in this group will all have a chance to win the group and all 3 will advance to the knockouts, meaning a favourable knockout draw could see Slovakia surprise many. Realistically from what I’ve seen of the possible knockout matches, Slovakia will face a tournament favorite in the quarter-finals should they make it there, which I believe they absolutely have a solid chance to do.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Onto another potential surprise at this summer’s tournament: Ukraine. This is a very strong Ukraine squad and could be one of the 3 teams that I believe have a chance to come 1st in this group. Led by La Liga top scorer Artem Dovbyk up front, with his Girona teammate Viktor Tsygankov and Chelsea speedster Mykhailo Mudryk on the wings, the Ukraine attack is about as good as it has been in recent memory. Shakhtar Donetsk star midfielder Heorhiy Sudakov provides the vision and passing from the centre of the pitch. Several Premier League players populate the Ukrainian defence, with Vitaliy Mykolenko and Ilya Zabarnya sure to play prominent roles, while Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko is more likely to play as a holding midfielder. Real Madrid’s Andriy Lunin, fresh off backstopping Madrid to the Champions League final and La Liga title, will take the start between the sticks. Like the other top contenders from this group, there is a lot of unknowns. Whichever team of Belgium, Slovakia, or Ukraine brings their best form will likely finish 1st, while I believe all 3 will advance. Depending on the draw in the knockouts, I think it not impossible that Ukraine could win a knockout match as well, though I see it difficult for them to reach the semi-finals.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Finally, Romania, who seem the weakest team in this group by a fair margin, especially considering form coming into the tournament. The Romanians achieved a 1-0 victory over Switzerland in the final match of Euro qualifying, but since then in their friendlies before the tournament have drawn Northern Ireland, lost to Colombia, and had back to back 0-0 draws against Bulgaria and Liechtenstein. None of the European teams they drew against have qualified for this Euros, with Liechtenstein being the smallest European country outside of San Marino. It does not bode well for Romania’s chances to advance from this group. The star of this team is the 22 year old Spurs CB, Radu Dragusin. Captain Nicolae Stanciu and his 70 caps (active leader for Romania), will lead this side from an attacking midfield role, alongside Alaves midfielder Ianis Hagi, (yes, that’s Gheorghe Hagi’s son). The majority of this Romania squad plays their club football in Romania, Turkey, or the Italian Serie B. Lacking the same top-level talent as the other teams in this group, Romania could unfortunately end up without a point, while a draw is likely their best outcome from any of these matches. Dragusin is also the youngest player in this team and the only player younger than 24, so the experience of playing at this Euro’s will not benefit most of the younger generation of Romanian players who will be called upon in future years. Let’s hope they can give their passionate fans something to cheer for.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Out in Group Stage
Group F: Turkey, Georgia, Portugal, Czechia
Time for the last group, Group F. This group should be relatively easy for a strong Portugal side to finish 1st in, while the 2nd place qualification spot is up for grabs.
Starting with Turkey, who have some talent on this team but do not look to be in the best form coming into the tournament, having not won a match since November 2023. A draw to Wales, losses to Hungary and Austria (the latter by a 6-1 scoreline), a draw to Italy and a loss to Poland in their last 5 matches do not give too much room for optimism, but this group still offers a decent chance to qualify if the Turks can turn it around. Led by youth at the front, either 18 year old Besiktas striker Semih Kilcsoy or 19 year old Juventus up-and-comer Kenan Yildiz will be called upon to bring the goals. I expect Kerem Akturkoglu, Orkun Kokcu, and Arda Guler to start behind the strikers in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which offers a good attacking punch. Turkey legend and captain Hakan Calhanoglu, who is still performing for Inter Milan at age 30, will offer the playmaking from the midfield while paired with Dortmund defensive midfielder Salih Ozcan. Recently in defence, the back 4 has been chosen with a defensive mindset, with Roma’s Zeki Celik (a CB/RB hybrid player) and Mert Muldur (also a CB), are playing at the fullback positions. Abdulkerim Bardakci is likely to start at CB, with his partner not seemingly set yet, but I think Samet Akaydin from Panathinaikos is likely to start. New Manchester United #2 keeper Altay Bayindir is likely to get the start, although Besiktas Mert Gunok could start if Vincenzo Montella prefers the veteran presence in net. If Turkey can perform against Czechia and Georgia, they are in with a solid chance of qualifying, though I doubt their credentials to go deep in this tournament.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
Next, to Georgia, who had to run the gauntlet to qualify for this year’s tournament after not securing automatic qualification from their group. A 2-0 win over Luxembourg and a dramatic penalty shootout win over Greece booked their tickets to Germany, with keeper Giorgi Mamardashvili becoming a national hero for his saves in that shootout. Mamardashvil is a top keeper in my opinion, and has had another solid season in La Liga with Valencia. Georgia is in ways similar to Slovenia: one of their best players is their keeper, and the other is a forward. That forward being Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, who has an impressive 15 goals in 30 caps while playing as a winger for the national team. If “Kvaradona”, as he is affectionately nicknamed by the Napoli faithful, can produce some magic in this group stage, there is no reason to believe Georgia cannot continue this dream run just one step further. Winning a knockout game will prove to be a very tough task if they do qualify.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
Onto a tournament favorite, Portugal. The greatest weakness of this Portugal team is honestly their manager. Roberto Martinez is one of the most successful managers in the world at failing upwards – after underperforming with Belgium’s “golden generation”, culminating in a massive fallout within the squad at the last World Cup, he has somehow landed the Portugal job. This is a case where the players may need to just ignore the manager and do what they know is best in games, as there is the talent to go all the way. Porto’s Diogo Costa, who is seen as the next big thing for European keepers, will start in net, finally getting the #1 spot over aging Rui Patricio. Portugal have switched between a 4 and 5 back formation in their 2 pre-tournament friendlies, with the back 5 being used to allow talented young defenders Antonio Silva and Goncalo Inacio to play alongside veteran Pepe, who looks an ageless wonder still able to perform at top level while 41 years old. Diogo Dalot, Joao Cancelo, and Nuno Mendes are all very strong wingback options. In midfield, there are several options to use, with Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Joao Palhinha, and Vitinha being the major candidates to start (depending on formation). Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leao, Joao Felix and Goncalo Ramos are all candidates to start up front, with Cristiano Ronaldo likely to play a super-sub role in his final Euro tournament. This team has so much talent available to them, we should not be surprised if they do go all the way.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Finally we arrive at the Czech squad. This is a relatively weak Czech team compared to what we might’ve seen in Euro’s past, there are no Pavel Nevded’s in this year’s team. However, there is still some solid talent, with Leverkusen duo Adam Hlozek and Patrik Schick leading the attack. Fiorentina midfielder Antonin Barak adds quality to midfield alongside West Ham stalwart Tomas Soucek. Soucek’s teammate Vladimir Coufal offers veteran leadership in defence alongside some solid young talent. The player to watch for me is Sparta Prague midfielder Ladislav Krejci, who recently moved from CB to midfield at club level and has thrived in a tempo-controlling role. The Czechs can absolutely qualify from this group, but I find it tough to see a path far into the knockouts for them. A Round of 16 appearance will be seen as a success.
This past season I noticed the further emergence, or re-emergence, of a tactical trend, and thought it would be worth a discussion. Across Europe, it seems as if the days of the False 9 are over for now, as many sides have reverted to using a more traditional out and out #9. Why is this the case? Have managers just gotten nostalgic for the “good old days” where a striker’s job was simply to put the ball in the back of the net and win aerial duels? Was Sean Dyche right all along? Why are playmaking #9’s less effective at Europe’s top level now? I believe there are several reasons for this.
Reason 1: Pressing
High-intensity pressing is the norm more than the exception now, especially in the Premier League. When Jurgen Klopp joined Liverpool nearly 10 years ago now in October 2015, he brought his “gegenpress” style to England, and at the time this was a unique approach. Many teams preferred to sit deeper in a mid or low block, and look to build counter attacking moves from their own half. Now, the value of winning the ball high up the pitch has become apparent: the closer to the opposition goal you win the ball, the less distance there is to cover to get to goal, and generally less offensive actions are required before a scoring chance is created. More and more modern managers are selecting this approach, whether they are a title challenger or a relegation-battling club. When teams press you high up the pitch, there are generally two options: try to play through the press, which risks turning the ball over close to your goal with more of your players committed up the pitch, or attempt a long ball to bypass the press entirely. While most teams prefer to play from the back (thanks Pep), having the outlet long ball pass be available is a handy “get out of jail free card” when under pressure. This is one reason why the traditional #9 is being used more. Erling Haaland at Manchester City is a prime example. Now this past season, Mikel Arteta adjusted his pressing approach vs City to not commit as many players forward to the press. He learned this lesson in Arsenal’s 4-1 defeat to City on April 26, 2023. Look how the first City goal was created:
Ederson plays the ball out wide to John Stones, who is immediately under pressure from Martinelli and Jesus. He opts not to pass short to Walker, but waits until the Arsenal players close him down more, before opting for a long ball.
The target of this long ball? Erling Haaland of course. You can see how as the ball comes in to Haaland, he has gotten body positioning on Rob Holding and is able to control the ball down and make a pass to Kevin de Bruyne, who has slipped past Thomas Partey with his run through midfield:
Seconds later, de Bruyne runs towards the edge of the box and unleashes a low strike into the bottom corner. 1-0 City.
If Manchester City still had Gabriel Jesus, or even Sergio Aguero as the lone striker, they would be much less likely to win the aerial duel vs Arsenal’s CB and retain possession. Having the option to both play short through a press or send a long ball to the ST to hold possession, allowing midfielders to make supporting runs for a pass forward gives teams more unpredictability in their buildup, and forces the opposition to think twice about committing so many players forward to the press. This past season, Postecoglu’s Spurs encountered this difficulty, with Richarlison being their best forward equipped to perform this role. When he was not fit and Son Heung-Min played in the #9 role, there was a noticeable difference in Spurs’ ability to retain the ball when under high pressure in their own end of the pitch: teams could cover the short passing options, with some degree of confidence that a long ball towards their CB’s would be dealt with and the ball would be won back. Now I used this as an example because Son is clearly a world class player, but holding up the ball under physical challenges is not his biggest strength, one of the reasons he is more effective off the left wing. Having a physical striker able to win duels vs opposing CB’s offers a lifeline when the opposition is committing a lot of players up the pitch to press and at the same time, will offer more space to play out from the back, as the risk of the long ball needs to be considered by the defence before pressing.
Reason 2: Structured Defences
In current-day football, teams are more structured than ever and are well drilled defensively to protect their box when under attacking threat. Arsenal, one of the best teams in world football at the moment, have encountered the issue of not being able to convert extreme amounts of attacking threat to shots on goal and goals scored. They would frequently make several passes in the box before a shot attempt was taken, which allowed defenders to close them down, and any backtracking players to arrive in the box to help. With defences being as well organized as they are now, it is more imperative than ever to generate chances quickly, and take the opportunities when they present themselves instead of overpassing or trying to be too fancy dribbling around the box. This is the same reason why high-pressing has become so popular, it allows your team to get the ball in a good offensive position, with the least amount of opposition players in position to defend. So for this reason, having a physical striker who can operate at times like a pure poacher is more valuable than it has been in past years. Not to overuse Haaland as an example, but just think, how many times have you seen Haaland receive the ball in the box and try to make an extra pass, or dribble a defender before shooting? His job in the final third is to put the ball in the net, so when he is in a position to shoot, he does so immediately, while also offering an aerial threat of any subsequent set pieces that might arise from a blocked shot or defensive clearance.
This is more than a trend in the Premier League however. La Liga’s top two scorers this year? Girona’s Artem Dovbyk, and Villareal’s Alexander Sorloth, two imposing strikers who are aerial presences and not so much known for their dribbling or playmaking ability. In Serie A? 6 of the top 8 goalscorers fit this player profile, all being physically strong and primarily looking to score when in the box (Lautaro, Vlahovic, Osimhen, Giroud, Zapata and Lukaku). The leading goalscorers of the Liga Portugal and the Eredivisie? Viktor Gyokeres and Luuk de Jong. It seems that now more than ever, the most efficient way to play against modern defences is to bring back the traditional #9. Small, agile, skillful players are showing to be much more effective on the wings or through midfield, while leaving the physicality to be brought by the striker in attack.
Now like always, I don’t want you to take my word for it but rather consider my ideas with what you yourself have seen in European football this year compared to previous years. In addition, keep an eye on the ST transfers this summer to see what teams are prioritizing for their #9. Do you agree that there has been a larger shift back to the traditional #9, and how long do you think this may continue before there is a defensive change to the game that continues the constant tactical evolution in football?
Thanks for reading, I hope you found some insight in this article. I’ll be looking to publish a preview of the summer’s Euros and Copa America tournaments in the coming days, so stay tuned!
The 2023 African Cup of Nations tournament began just over three weeks ago on the 13th of January, 2024. The tournament was initially scheduled to be played in the summer of 2023 (why it’s not called the 2024 AFCON), but was rescheduled due to concerns about the hot summer weather in the Ivory Coast, the host nation. To me, AFCON represents everything football stands for. In the modern era of football, clubs are owned by venture capitalists, oligarchs, and even entire countries (looking at you, Man City, PSG, and Newcastle). Football is seen more and more as a business, and players seen as assets of those businesses. For those in charge, the profits are never enough, culminating in ideas like the Super League, which goes against pretty much everything football stands for. In this climate the African Cup of Nations is a breath of fresh air, and I have enjoyed every minute of it so far. Here you see international football in its purest form, with all the passion, creativity, and unpredictable moments you could hope for as a fan of the game. The many different cultures and fans of Africa all coming together for a truly one of a kind tournament had made for an unforgettable experience. Today I’ll give a review of how each of our four semi-finalists made it here, and what the final matches might look like.
Semifinal 1: Nigeria (Group A) vs South Africa (Group E)
In the first semi-final, we have representatives from Group A and Group E. Starting with Nigeria, the Super Eagles did not perform as well as they might have expected in the group stage, but still did more than enough to qualify for the knockouts in 2nd place behind Equatorial Guinea, who shocked Group A coming out on top led by their defender-turned-striker Emilio Nsue, who was AFCON’s top scorer in the group stages. Nigeria started their tournament with a 1-1 draw against Equatorial Guinea thanks to a Victor Osimhen equaliser. In their next match, they played tournament hosts Ivory Coast in what was a very fast and direct game from the Nigeria side. Despite Ivory Coast holding 64% possession, Nigeria produced almost 3 times the amount of expected goals as the hosts and deserved their 1-0 win from a William Troost-Ekong penalty. In their final group stage match, Nigeria needed a point to secure qualification, and got all three, scraping a 1-0 win over Guinea-Bissau thanks to an own-goal, in a game that could’ve gone either way. Although it wasn’t a dominant group stage performance, the Super Eagles certainly deserved a place in the knockout stages. In the Round of 16, Nigeria were drawn against their neighbors Cameroon, in what looked to be a potentially close match following Cameroon’s momentous final matchday to qualify for the knockouts. In reality, Nigeria dominated this game, preventing Cameroon from registering a single shot on target, and comfortably winning 2-0 to advance. Onto the quarterfinals, where Group D winners Angola awaited. Angola looked to be Nigeria’s toughest opponent yet, and this proved to be the case. Almost exactly even on expected goals and shots on target, the Angolans held a 55% possession advantage in the game, but could not convert any of their chances. A lone Ademola Lookman strike just before halftime would be the only goal of the match, as Nigeria advanced to the semi-finals!
The Super Eagles would have to wait to see who their opponent would be, as Cape Verde and South Africa played out the other quarterfinal after the Nigera-Angola match. Cape Verde, winners of Group B over Egypt and Ghana, had made an impressive run to the quarterfinals this tournament, and knocked out Mauritania to face South Africa. South Africa were not considered the favorites in this match based off performances at this AFCON so far, having finished 2nd in their group behind Mali to qualify for the knockout stages. This was due to an opening day 2-0 loss to Mali in which the South Africans were not without chances. Bafana Bafana responded well with a 2nd matchday 4-0 win over Namibia, before closing out their group stage in a 0-0 draw against Tunisia. This final point would be just enough to qualify in 2nd place over Namibia on goal difference, setting up a Round of 16 match against tournament favorites Morocco. What a game this was. Morocco only have themselves to blame in a match where they showed uncharacteristically poor finishing, generating 0.33 xGoT from 1.94 xG (for context, “average” finishing should’ve seen Morocco score 2 goals from these chances). On the other side, South Africa only generated 0.32xG, but took those chances extremely well, producing 1.16xGoT from that 0.32xG. 11 of Morocco’s 13 shot attempts were either off target, or blocked. A 57′ strike from Evidence Makgopa from the left side of the box into the bottom right corner gave South Africa a shock lead, where they dug in to try and defend the Moroccan response. In the 85′, Morocco finally broke through, winning a penalty that could tie the match. Achraf Hakimi stepped up to take, and rattled his shot off the crossbar and over the net! This miss looked to crush the Moroccan side, who looked visibly defeated afterwards. Then, in the 95′, South Africa won a free kick just outside of the box when Sofyan Amrabat was sent off with a red card. Mamelodi Sundowns man Teboho Mokoena stepped up to take, and caressed the ball into the top left corner, sending the South African fans into absolute pandemonium! Morocco was sent home, and Bafana Bafana advanced to face Cape Verde. Against the Blue Sharks, South Africa were very much on the defensive for much of the game. After a back and forth first half without too many dangerous chances created, Cape Verde put on the pressure in the second half, throwing everything they had on net. 13 shot attempts in the second half, with 11/13 shots off target or blocked by the South African defense. Into stoppage time, it looked like Cape Verde might win it late on a fast break. Gilson Tavares collected a pass just inside the box, and fired his shot to the top right corner. The quality of this shot meant it had an xGoT value of 0.91 (this quality of shot placed where it was would be expected to go in 91% of the time). However, South African keeper Ronwen Williams refused to go home yet, and stretched his fingertips to the ball to make the most crucial save of the match. Cape Verde gave their all in the 2nd half to try and win the match, and that showed once Extra Time started. Having already used 5 substitutions by the 86′, Cape Verde only had one remaining for extra time, while South Africa had 4 substitutions saved for extra time, and used them. South Africa controlled the first half of extra time, with two excellent chances in the 92′ saved and 63% possession. The second half of extra time looked like both teams had gotten tired, understandably, and without any major chances in the final 15′, this quarterfinal went to penalties. In the penalty shootout, it was a match to remember for Ronwen Williams. After keeping his side in the match with his crucial 92′ save, Williams went on to SAVE FOUR OUT OF FIVE PENALTIES. I can’t remember the last time I’ve seen such a dominant performance in a penalty shootout from a keeper, and South Africa only needed to convert 2 of their 4 penalties before clinching their trip to the semi-finals. This South Africa team is on an unlikely run, and we cannot count out another surprising match in their semi-final vs Nigeria. Expect the South Africans to allow Nigeria possession, defend strong, and try to expose the Super Eagles on the counter.
Semifinal 2: Ivory Coast (Group A) vs DR Congo (Group F)
In the other semifinal, we have two very interesting stories. We will start with the hosts, Ivory Coast, who are our second semifinal representative from Group A. I watched every match Ivory Coast played in the group stage, and was thoroughly underwhelmed. With the squad available to the Ivorians, the performances on the pitch were very sub-standard. Their tournament started with a win, albeit over the lowest ranked team in their group, Guinea-Bissau. As previously mentioned, in their second match, Ivory Coast would lose 1-0 to Nigeria, conceding the Super Eagles’ only shot on target from the penalty spot. Going into the final matchday, the Ivorians were on 3 points and a win would guarantee them a qualification spot. However, they went out in front of their home fans and were shocked 4-0 by Equatorial Guinea. In a match where Ivory Coast produced 2.06xG to their opponent’s 1.39xG, they could only manage 0.67xGoT to Equatorial Guinea’s 3.17xGoT. Ivory Coast was not clinical with their chances and cannot say they deserved anything from the match. This result meant that Ivory Coast had to wait out the rest of the group stage results to see if they would qualify for the knockouts as one of the four best 3rd place teams in the group stage. The Equatorial Guinea result was also the final straw for their manager, who was sacked immediately after Ivory Coast’s final group stage match. In the end, it would be Morocco who would help the hosts qualify as the final team in the knockouts with their final matchday win over Zambia. Going into the Round of 16 with a new manager, Ivory Coast were drawn against another tournament favorite in Senegal, the defending champions. After going down 4 minutes into the first half, the Ivorians showed their resilience by coming back to dominate the rest of the game and earning a deserved 86′ penalty converted by Franck Kessié to equalise the match and force extra time. In the first half of extra time, Senegal had the better chances, with Sadio Mané seeing his 105+2′ shot from 5 feet saved. The second half of extra time saw no big chances, and this match went on to penalty kicks. This would not be a penalty shootout for a keeper to be the hero in, as 9 of 10 penalties taken were converted. After Moussa Niakhaté hit the post with Senegal’s 3rd penalty, Sebastian Haller, Serge Aurier, and Franck Kessié stayed cool to convert their attempts and send the host nation into the quarterfinal! Against Mali in the next round, Ivory Coast had to yet again come from behind, this time late. The first half was all Mali, but thanks to a saved penatly from Yahia Fofana, the Ivory Coast was able to get to halftime all square, despite being down a man after Odilon Kossounou’s second yellow card in the 43′. In the 71′, Mali struck with a beautiful strike from distance thanks to Nene Dorgeles and took the lead. This turned out to be Mali’s last good chance of the game and after extended pressure, Ivory Coast managed to force the equaliser through Simon Adingra in the 90′ even though they were down a player, forcing extra time yet again in these AFCON knockouts. In extra time, Mali dominated the ball, averaging 78% possession, but could not generate any attacking threat aside from a missed chance from a corner. In the 120+2′, Ivory Coast won an indirect free kick from outside of the box. The ball was delivered in and cleared to Seko Fofana at the edge of the box, who took the volley on first time. Fofana’s shot cannons into the box, and takes a deflection off Oumar Diakité right in front of the Mali keeper, rolling in at the death to steal the win for Ivory Coast! Against all odds, the Ivorians went from nearly missing out on the knockouts altogether to playing in their home tournament’s semifinal.
Our final semifinalist balances out the North/South African representatives, as the Democratic Republic of Congo joins Bafana Bafana as southern Africa’s second semifinalist in this year’s AFCON. Coming into this tournament as FIFA’s #67 ranked national side, not much was expected from DR Congo in terms of a knockout stage run. In fact, the group stages did not seem to change expectations much, as DR Congo did not win a single match. However, they did not lose a single match either, and after equalising in both of their first two matches to claim 1-1 draws against Zambia and Morocco, Congo would play a 0-0 draw on the final matchday against Tanzania to secure themselves 2nd place in Group F behind Morocco. Their Round of 16 matchup was drawn to be Egypt, pre-tournament favorites who had lost their talisman Mohamed Salah in the group stages to injury but had fought their way into the knockout stage regardless. DR Congo would strike first thanks to Meschack Elia in the 37′, but their lead would not last until halftime as Mostafa Mohamed converted an Egyptian penalty in the 45+1′ to draw level. Congo did not have a shot on target in the second half, but held strong to take the game to extra time. In the 97′ Egypt picked up a second yellow card on Mohamed Hamdi, who was sent off. Despite having a man advantage, DR Congo could not manage to convert a chance in extra time, leading to a penalty shootout that would require 9 shooters to decide the match. Both sides converted their first penalty, missed their second penalty, and scored the next 3. Tied at 4-4, the shootout would have to move on into sudden death. Egypt and DR Congo both converted their next 3 penalties as well, sending us to the 9th round, where the keepers would shoot on one another. The Egyptian keeper Mohamed Abou Gabal rang his shot off the crossbar, giving Lionel Mpasi-Nzau, the Congolese keeper, a chance to win the match for his side. He would convert his penalty, sending Gabal the wrong way and sparking electric celebrations amongst the DR Congo team and supporters. In their quarterfinal match, DR Congo faced Naby Keita’s Guinea and made no mistake, scoring each of their 3 shots on target including an Arthur Masuaku free kick from distance en route to a 3-1 win. This gave DR Congo their chance at a semifinal matchup against the host nation Ivory Coast.
This semifinal could truly go either way as both sides have shown remarkable resilience and self-belief to make it this far. DR Congo are making only their third AFCON semi-final appearance since 1974, when they won their 2nd and most recent AFCON. Ivory Coast are making their first semi-final appearance in four tournaments, last reaching this stage in the 2015 AFCON, which they would go on to win. Will the West African powerhouses book their places in the final, or will the Southern African teams continue to shock us at this AFCON and make history? The last southern African nation to make the final of AFCON was Zambia in 2012, with South Africa being the next most recent, making the final in 1998. Every team left in these semifinals has won an AFCON before. Nigeria hold the most out of any remaining team with 3 wins (most recently in 2013), Ivory Coast(1992, 2015) and DR Congo (1968, 1974) each have 2 AFCON wins to their name, and South Africa can also call themselves AFCON champions, having won the 1996 edition of the tournament. Take your pick, it will be a great finish to what has been a wonderful tournament so far!
Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy the rest of this year’s AFCON!
Manchester City don’t look to be settling into complacency anytime soon. Erling Haaland opened his account for the season just 4 minutes into the match at Turf Moor. A de Bruyne cross from wide was headed back centrally by Rodri to be smashed into the bottom corner by Haaland. The Norwegian added his second off a first time finish from a Julian Alvarez pass, off the crossbar and in. Burnley were by no means a defeated team, and fought all game valiantly to break through the City defense. Substitutions of Zaroury and Bruun Larsen in the second half energized Burnley and led to some chances created, but in the end the final touch was not there. Josko Gvardiol made his debut as a substitute in the second half, on at LB, but did not get much time to show his quality. Rodri added City’s third of the game off a bouncing ball in the box that he was in the right position to slot home calmly. Zaroury was dismissed late in the second half for a bad challenge on Kyle Walker, who left the game after the tackle. Overall, Burnley showed promising signs, but there is still a significant ways to go before they can challenge Manchester City.
Game 2: Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Arsenal started off their season strong in the first half, with intricate passing in build-up, and several chances generated. Mikel Arteta surprised again with his lineup, starting Thomas Partey at RB, playing him in the “John Stones” role from last season. The midfield was composed of Odegaard, Rice, and Havertz, with Eddie Nketiah starting between Martinelli and Saka up front. Nketiah struck first in the 26′, after a beautiful spin into a back-heel assist from Martinelli. Arsenal kept up the pressure, and Saka struck a beautiful ball from outside the box into the top left corner. In the second half, Arsenal started to let up towards the 70′, and after a corner Anthony Elanga and Taiwo Awoniyi broke the length of the field against Arsenal’s defence and scored to make the Gunners nervous for the final 15 minutes. However, there would be no shock result in the end, and Arsenal grab 3 points to get started.
Game 3: Bournemouth 1 – 1 West Ham
Bournemouth showed a new side of their game today, holding 63% of possession against the Hammers. However, chances created were similar, and although Bournemouth had more shots on target, they were unable to make the result show for it. West Ham got off to a great start to the second half with Jarrod Bowen scoring a beautiful curler into the top corner to go ahead. The Hammers were unable to hold their lead, and Dominic Solanke equalised for Bournemouth in the 82′, leading to a draw. New signing Milos Kerkez had a strong game, with a 77% pass completion rate, and 8 passes played into the final third. Had it not been for a wonderstrike from Bowen, Bournemouth might have gotten away with 3 points here, but they weren’t robbed by any means.
Game 4: Brighton 4 – 1 Luton Town
It was a bit of a baptism by fire for Luton Town on their trip to the South Coast to start their Premier League campaign. The xG created was 4.10 – 1.45 in Brighton’s favour, with the Seagulls accumulating 27 total shots, 12 of them on target. Kaoru Mitoma found Solly March with a tricky right-footed cross to put Brighton ahead in the 36′. Most of Brighton’s shots in the first half were off target, and the score was only 1-0 at halftime. In the second half, Brighton turned it up another notch. Joao Pedro won a penalty after being bowled over by Tom Lockyer, and then converted it himself to make the lead 2. In the 81′, Luton Town were given a glimpse of hope, converting their own penalty to draw within 1, but the hope was short-lived. New arrival Simon Adingra struck in the 85′ to add to Brighton’s lead, and Evan Ferguson finished off the game with a 95′ goal. New signings James Milner and Mahmoud Dahoud had strong first games for Brighton, and the Seagulls don’t appear to have lost a step without Caicedo and Mac Allister.
Game 5: Everton 0 – 1 Fulham
The story of this game was the German keeper, Bernd Leno. Although his side had 59% possession, this was due to Everton’s direct counter-attacking approach, which was able to generate 2.93xG to Fulham’s 1.48 over the game. Leno made 9 saves, and Fulham struck on their own counter-attack, with Mitrovic and Pereira combining before Bobby Decordova-Reid slotted home the cross from inside the 6 yard box. After being under pressure for the majority of the game, Fulham were able to grab a goal against the run of play, and fans will surely be happy to see Aleksandar Mitrovic playing, even if only as a substitute. Still a promising start for Everton, who surely deserved more from this game.
Game 6: Sheffield United 0 – 1 Crystal Palace
The home-field advantage of Bramall Lane wasn’t enough to help Sheffield United to any points on their opening match vs Palace. With no Olise in the lineup due to injury, and new signing Matheus França not available yet, Schlupp and Ayew started on either side of Eberechi Eze on the wings. Eze had a player of the match performance, looking cool under pressure and helping Crystal Palace to 67% possession in this match. The Blades could not create much in terms of chances, being outshot 3 to 1 by Palace, and only managing a lone shot on target. Palace created 2.01xG from 8 shots on target, and could have won by more had it not been for a few goals that were fractionally offside and rightly called back. A strong start for Crystal Palace, even if the scoreline does not reflect that.
Game 7: Newcastle 5 – 1 Aston Villa
In the most intriguing match of the day, Newcastle hosted Unai Emery’s rising Aston Villa squad. The early game was a story of new signings, with Sandro Tonali putting Newcastle ahead early before Moussa Diaby equalized for Villa inside 11 minutes played. Just after a quarter of an hour, Alexander Isak put the Geordies back in front, stabbing home a centred ball from Botman. Newcastle predictably held the majority of the possession, with their midfield trio of Tonali, Guimaraes, and Joelinton all being extremely press-resistant. Newcastle were vulnerable on the counterattack, especially if Dan Burn ever pushed up on the left flank. The speed of Diaby, Watkins, and Bailey caused problems on the counter-attack, with Villa playing a direct game in the first half. Soon after kick-off in the second half, Alexander Isak grabbed his brace in the 58′, and Newcastle started to run away with the game. Callum Wilson added another in the 77′, assisted by new signing Harvey Barnes, who himself scored in the 91′ to cap off a 5-1 emphatic home victory to start their campaign. Emery will have some lessons to learn from this game, but alarm bells shouldn’t be ringing after game 1.
Game 8: Brentford 2 – 2 Tottenham
The start of a new era of Tottenham Hotspur began with a trip to West London. Ange-ball in full-effect, Spurs held 70% possession in the match, and completed more passes in the opposition half (455) than they had in nearly 20 months of football under Antonio Conte. This was a fresh, exciting look on Spurs, who are no longer playing the dreadfully boring low-block counter approach that Mourinho and Conte insisted on. With this increased focus on attacking though, Spurs are bound to concede goals this season, especially until more centre-back reinforcements arrive. The lack of depth at CB was exposed early, with Cristian Romero having to leave in the 15′ due to a precautionary concussion check, being replaced by Davinson Sanchez. Romero left immediately after scoring a header from a Maddison set piece to put Spurs ahead. There was an immediate drop-off in the stability in which Spurs could play out from the back, and combined with Oliver Skipp having the least notable performance of the Spurs midfield on the right side, there was immediate pressure invited on this half of the pitch. New signing Micky Van de Ven was a sight for sore eyes for Spurs fans, who have been longing for a centreback with his explosive pace and defensive ability to pair with Romero for ages. Brentford was able to take the lead after winning a questionable penalty that was converted by Mbeumo to tie the game, then adding another from Yoane Wissa in the 36′. Spurs tied the game just before halftime, with Maddison dribbling around his marker and slipping the ball to Emerson before being fouled, who took a first time volley into the bottom-left corner. In Postecoglu’s system, the RB Emerson is drifting inside and acting as another centre midfielder in possession, while the #8’s (Maddison and Skipp today) attack the box. The second half was a story of Spurs attacking and generating by far more chances, but with the best chance only being worth 0.12xG. Kevin Schade had Brentford’s best chance of the second half, but missed his attempt in the 87′ that could’ve seen Brentford stealing all 3 points. In the end, it was a very promising start for Ange Postecoglu at Spurs, with his team looking to be one of the most exciting to watch for a neutral fan this season. There will be goals. Lots of goals. Who will score them? We’ll find out.
Game 9: Chelsea 1 – 1 Liverpool
In the 1st edition of the Moises Caicedo derby, the result between Chelsea and Liverpool was the same as usual, but today wasn’t a goalless draw at least! While the Ecuadorian was not playing, just hours before the game he rejected Liverpool’s massive bid for him, telling Brighton that his intention is only to join Chelsea. Chelsea soon found a spare 115 million pounds lying around to sign arguably the hottest defensive midfield prospect in world football right now. This game started surprisingly, with Mauricio Pochettino opting for a 5-back formation for what seems like the first time ever. After using a 4-2-3-1 to great success in pre-season, Pochettino opted for somewhat of a 5-3-2 formation to face Liverpool. I’d guess that this was a reactionary approach to Liverpool’s expected tactics, as Pochettino rarely opts to diverge from his preferred 4-back systems. Liverpool were able to take advantage of the slow start from the Blues and scored 18′ in thanks to Luis Diaz tapping home a Mohamed Salah cross. Before the 30 minute mark, there was another scare for Chelsea, as Salah scored a goal that would be ruled offside after VAR. At this point, Poch seemed to convert his team into a 4-back system, with Levi Colwill acting as the LB, and Ben Chilwell acting more as a LM. Chelsea fared much better, and were clearly the better team for the rest of the game. New arrival (I know that doesn’t narrow it down much) Axel Disasi poked home a deflected ball in the box off a set-piece and equalised for Chelsea in the 38′. In the second half, Chelsea held 64% possession, and generated more chances than the Reds, with Mikhailo Mudryks run in alone on Alisson leading to a Nicolas Jackson chance being the best opportunity of the half. In the end, it is hard to argue either team deserved 3 points, but Chelsea certainly had the run of play for most of the game after their slow start. Liverpool desperately need a defensive midfielder, with Mac Allister acting as their most defensive midfielder in this match. It has been tough to sign one though, with bids for Caicedo and Lavia failing recently, and attempts to sign other players such as Sofyan Amrabat also failing. If Liverpool cannot get this key reinforcement, they could be in for a long season.
Game 10: Manchester United 1 – 0 Wolverhampton
In the final game of the week, Manchester United kick off their season hosting Wolves at Old Trafford. In the first half, Wolves held their own much better than expected, generating similar xG to United, with the 61% possession being the only thing to really separate the sides in the first half. Pedro Neto caused havoc down the right flank of Wolves, and yellow cards for Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez coming as a result. Wolves breaking with 3 forwards seemed to be enough to generate chances vs. United, which should be a concern for Erik Ten Hag. 5 minutes into the second half, Matheus Cunha missed a wide open top-half of the net as the ball was flicked across the 6-yard box to him in space that should have put Wolves in front. Pedro Neto looked unbelievably good this game, dribbling United’s defenders with ease time and time again. Nelson Semedo, a fullback not known for defending, was able to make Garnacho look near-invisible on the left-wing. Mason Mount’s United debut wasn’t the one he would’ve liked, and he was subbed off in the 67′ for Christian Eriksen. Garnacho’s night ended then as well, with Jadon Sancho getting his first minutes. Eriksen immediately made United more of a threat, threading a long ball over the top that was close to Rashford chance. Wolves were able to keep generating chances on the counter, with Cunha doing well to drive the ball forward through the middle of the pitch despite lacking the finish today. Sancho also aided United after coming on, being much more dangerous down the flank. United got a goal a bit out of nowhere, with a chipped ball over the top to Wan-Bissaka, who centred for Raphael Varane to head home and give United the lead despite having generating fewer chances in the game. After the goal, Wolves poured on the pressure, and Manchester United used everything they had to stop the ball from entering their net, including a pitch invader running on the pitch to add a man to the press on Wolves! Onana rushed out to try and meet a cross, missed the ball entirely and smashed into the Wolves player. After a VAR check, a penalty somehow wasn’t given, and Manchester United managed to escape with a 1-0 win against the run of play. A very strong start for Gary O’Neill’s Wolves, who will feel much more confident they can avoid relegation after such a performance. They certainly deserved as least a point from this game.
That makes for all of the matches on opening weekend! This looks to be one of the most interesting Premier League seasons in recent years, so be sure to stay tuned for what’s next! I’ll be providing regular updates as the season goes on.
The Final of this years Champions League is set: the seemingly inevitable Manchester City led by Pep Guardiola will take on Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan, who are not only fighting for the trophy now, but also fighting for their competitive future in the coming seasons. In this article, I will discuss the tactics employed by both managers, the storylines of the final, and predict how we are likely to see the game play out.
Manchester City: Striving for Immortality
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side could be as little as 3 wins away from becoming the second ever English team to win the treble of the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League. They would also be the 8th club to have accomplished the treble in Europe.
Celtic (1967), Ajax (1971), PSV Eindhoven (1988), Manchester United (1999), Barcelona (2009 and 2015), Inter (2010), and Bayern Munich (2013 and 2020) are the previous clubs to have completed the feat. Guardiola already features on the list with his 2009 Barcelona side – his very first full year in charge of the team. The greatest motivation on this list for City’s fans is to join their rivals, Manchester United, as the only English clubs to have won the treble. As it stands, that 1999 treble is something United fans have held over their heads for close to a quarter of a century now. A victory at the Atatürk Stadium in Istanbul would make the treble a very likely occurrence, as City are set to clinch the Premier League title with a single win from their last 3 games, and will then have to dispatch the aforementioned Red Devils in the FA Cup final at Wembley.
So how have the Cityzens arrived at this final? By bringing back one of the oldest tactics in football, of course. When the offsides rule was changed such that only two defenders (including the keeper) were required to play an attacker onside, many English teams starting sending more players forward, and would often line up in a 2-3-5 shape (yes, 5 forwards). To counteract this, a shift that at the time was considered very defensive was made: the W-M formation. The name comes from the shape that the players form, which is a 3-2-2-3 (the front 5 make a W, while the back 5 form a M-shape). If you take the 4 midfield players and rotate them to form a diamond, or a flat line, then this looks like a version of the 3-4-3 that we still see today. However, this is NOT a 3-4-3. Here is how Guardiola’s side lines up:
The first point I want to mention is the box in midfield formed by Rodri, John Stones, Gundogan, and Kevin De Bruyne. This midfield box is a shape commonly used in buildup in modern football, but is usually formed by a player moving infield. At Barcelona, Gavi is often played as a left winger, but drifts infield to form a box with the 3 midfielders in their 4-3-3. This box shape is so popular in midfield, as it provides the 4 players with a variety of passing options. Against most opposition, the midfield box is working around at most 3 midfielders in the centre of the pitch. If the defending team brings a 4th player in to press, then this opens up space elsewhere on the pitch. This is why many teams that use this box midfield shape are high-quantity passing, possession-based sides. I’ll take another look at how this could open up space against Inter’s side later in the article.
The second main point I want to add is that this formation is not static in buildup. As many of you already know, Pep Guardiola teams play the positional-play style of football. A short explanation of positional play:
In positional play theory, the pitch is divided into spaces as shown in the image above. Simply put, no more than 2 players should be in the same vertical channel, and no more than 3 players should be in the same horizontal line to cover the full pitch as efficiently as possible and provide adequate passing options. You’d have difficulty finding a game where City showed how well drilled they are in these principles more than the second leg of their semi-final against Real Madrid. No player was stuck to a position on the field, and when one moved, the others adjusted accordingly to maintain positional-play on the field. The versatility of the City squad was also on full display, with each player showing their proficiency in different roles as the situation required. In buildup, City would often overload one side of the pitch. To me, it almost appeared as if Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan were positioning themselves in relation to Kevin De Bruyne, who is often given a free-roaming role in this system. When De Bruyne moved, with or without the ball, Gundogan and Bernardo reacted as if on cue.
When De Bruyne ran towards the right flank, an overload was created by Bernardo staying wide and moving forward, Kyle Walker moving up from his RCB position into a RWB space, and the rest of the midfield box moving over to match De Bruyne. Alternatively, De Bruyne would move all the way into the wide space, and Bernardo drifted inside to take his place in the midfield box. No matter the side of the field or the rotation of players, City’s midfield box was the only constant in a sea of movement, formed by committee with whoever was in the right position to take the spot. The fluidity was at a level higher than I’ve seen in recent memory, reminiscent of the glory days of Barcelona.
Path to the Final:
Group G: City topped their group with Dortmund, Sevilla, and Kobenhavn unsurprisingly, with little drama.
Round of 16 vs. RB Leipzig: 8-1 on aggregate, after a first leg 1-1 draw. Home field advantage seems real.
Quarterfinal vs. Bayern Munich: 4-1 on aggregate. Bayern is in a period of uncharacteristic chaos, and it’s translating to the pitch. Thomas Tuchel was given a warm welcome to his new job.
Semifinal vs. Real Madrid: 5-1 on aggregate. The score was 3-1 on aggregate going into halftime of the second leg, and after City withstood Madrid’s efforts early in the second half, Los Blancos looked resigned to their defeat
Inter: Restoring Past Success for The Future
Inter Milan had not made the Champions League semi-final stage since they won the competition in 2010 under Mourinho. Only 6 clubs have won more than Inter’s 3 UCL titles in history however, and winning this final would put them level with Ajax on 4 titles. Bringing the biggest trophy in Europe home to the San Siro would mean so much more than just the history being made, it could give Inter a much needed boost in finance and spirit to stay competitive and continue qualifying for the Champions League, which they have not failed to do since the 2016-17 season. This season, Inter’s financial position has been well known to fans and Directors of Football around Europe. To compete with billionaire-owned clubs in Europe, Inter Milan’s spending in recent years has not been sustainable. As a result of this, the club was forced to take out an emergency loan from American asset management firm Oaktree Capital totaling 275 million euros. This debt is due to be repaid in the summer of 2024, and if it cannot be repaid, Oaktree Capital could take control of the club. While the Champions League cannot provide all the revenue to make up that debt, it can certainly be said that missing out on the additional revenue that comes with playing in the Champions League would be a de-facto nail in the coffin for Inter. Below, I’ve attached the prize money breakdown for this season’s Champions League.
This season, Inter won 3 group stage games and drew 1, totalling 9.33 million euros. Reaching the final has since added another 48.2 million euros to their total, and winning the competition could take this years prize money up to over 75 million euros. This is not including broadcast revenue and match-day revenue (Inter raked in over 10 million euros of match-day revenue in their semi-final tie against AC Milan). If it couldn’t be any clearer by now, Inter need the Champions League to survive. At one point in the season, it looked in doubt whether Inter would qualify for next season’s Champions League by finishing Top 4 in Serie A. With 3 games to play, Inter now holds a 5 point lead over AC Milan in 5th place, putting them in a good position to qualify. If they fall out of the top 4 places in Serie A however, Inter will need to win this year’s Champions League final to qualify for next season’s competition. Talk about pressure. With the stakes known, let’s look at how Inter will likely line up.
Since Milan Skriniar went down with a spinal injury in the first leg vs. Porto, the only change to Inter’s main 5-3-2 formation arrived. Darmian was dropped back to RCB to take Skriniar’s place, and Denzel Dumfries came in at RWB. While Inter would love to have Skriniar in this final for his defensive capabilities, Dumfries and Darmian make for a much more offensive right side than Darmian and Skriniar. Accordingly, this formation will play more like a 3-5-2 than a 5-3-2.
Look for Federico Dimarco to keep a more reserved role on the left-hand side to allow him to mark Bernardo or De Bruyne when they run into the space. This will mean Mkhitaryan will be the more offensive midfielder behind Calhanoglu, while Barella, an excellent ball-winner, will play more of a box-to-box role. I can also see Barella dropping back centrally to allow Calhanoglu and Mikhitaryan to rotate into a box shape with the two strikers.
On Inter’s right flank, much will depend on how well Grealish and Gundogan can balance their offensive contributions with the marking of Denzel Dumfries, who Inter will look to find in space with switches of play. When City press, they often look to split the field in half down the centre line and overload the flank. If City can prevent the switch of play from left to right over to Dumfries, then Inter will find it much more difficult to break through.
The biggest unknown for City’s defense will be how they will approach the 2-striker front of Inter. City have yet to play a team that utilizes two strikers in the Champions League this season. It will be interesting to see if Rodri and John Stones opt to cover the strikers more often, or move upfield to press Inter’s midfielders. If Inter are able to counter with numbers into space behind City’s line of Grealish-Gundogan-De Bruyne-Bernardo, I can see several dangerous chances being created.
If City’s shape in defense is the 3-2-4-1 shown above, then I believe Inter will have plenty of opportunities to create chances. If Barella and Mkhitaryan can get behind Gundogan and De Bruyne, Inter will have an overload in the centre of the pitch, leaving City’s CB’s with constant decisions to make on whether to move wide and cover the wingbacks, or stay centrally to cover the strikers and runs from the midfield. The same goes for City’s wide players covering Dumfries and Dimarco. If the advanced midfield line of Manchester City neglects their defensive responsibilities, Inter will look far more dangerous. However, out of possession Manchester City often move into a 4-4-2 or a 4-1-4-1 shape. Personally, I think a 4-1-4-1 out of possession would provide cover in defense across the field and prevent Inter from finding man advantages, as shown below.
In this shape, City are not left with any free attackers in the centre of the pitch, as Rodri can move centrally to cover Inter’s front 3, freeing up Akanji and Walker to close down wide areas when needed. When defending in the second half vs. Real Madrid, City opted for this 4-1-4-1 shape, and I would not be surprised to see it in the final.
Path to the Final:
Group C: Inter finished 2nd behind Bayern Munich in a group that saw Barcelona sent to the Europa League.
Round of 16 vs. Porto: 1-0 on aggregate, Inter went to Porto and held a clean sheet to move on.
Quarterfinal vs. Benfica: A 5-3 tie on aggregate that looks closer than it was. Inter won a strong away game 2-0, and then were up 5-1 on aggregate in the 78′ of the second leg before two late Benfica goals gave the Portuguese side something to keep their heads high about.
Semifinal vs. AC Milan: 3-0 on aggregate. What could be the final Milan derby at the historical San Siro was more impressive in the record books than on the pitch, where AC Milan failed to show up.
June 10th, 2023
This is the date that the Champions League Final will be played, in Istanbul, Turkiye. We’ve laid out the tactics, the stories to watch, and what this win would mean to each club. All that’s left is to wait for the big match! If you’re still reading by now, thank you for your time and I hope you found something to enjoy in this preview.
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