Hello again, apologies for the delay in posting, I just moved and have finally gotten settled and internet set up! Just in time too, because I couldn’t wait any longer to talk about today’s topic: has this been the strangest year in recent memory for managerial changes in England?
Vincent Kompany
The most unpredictable of the bunch, and the main reason why I felt there was enough evidence to look at this as a larger-scale trend, is the links between Bayern Munich and Vincent Kompany. Now this is very much in part due to the state of Bayern Munich, which is chaotic to put it nicely. Bayern memorably sacked Julian Nagelsmann last year because they wanted to bring in Thomas Tuchel, while Nagelsmann had been doing quite well at Bayern. In the end, Bayern decided to move on from Tuchel faster than they had from Nagelsmann! The German’s departure from the Allianz at the end of the 2023/24 season was announced with months still to play in the year, and the Bayern hierarchy has been trying to attract his successor since. In a strange deviation from what we are used to, Bayern have experienced nothing but rejection from every manager they’ve approached so far. Some managers that have rejected Bayern have been Xabi Alonso – who opted to remain at Leverkusen after their title-winning campaign, Julian Nagelsmann – who was not jumping at the chance to come back to Bayern, Ralf Ragnick – who preferred to remain as the Austrian national team manager, and Oliver Glasner – who was undesired by Bayern for years as he coached Eintracht Frankfurt, but was approached mere months after joining Crystal Palace. This wild goose chase of a search for a manager has finally led the Bavarians to approaching Vincent Kompany after he saw his Burnley side get relegated from the Premier League in their first season back up. Results aside, Kompany also made some serious mistakes, potentially assuming Burnley’s safety from relegation was assured. Kompany continued to play a possession, attacking style of football that worked well when he had one of the best squads in his league (in the Championship) but was heavily exposed at Premier League level. The choice of player transfers was very much for the future, with several young, unproven players coming in ahead of this past season. Some key deficiencies in the squad (like at LB for one) were not addressed, and Kompany stubbornly refused to change his tactics, resulting in relegation. We can argue that Kompany’s style would have more success with a squad like Bayern’s, who are indeed one of the best in their league, but the more concerning part for Bayern fans should be Kompany’s unwillingness to alter his approach when it was clearly not working well enough. This also goes to show that while football has evolved past the thought that a former great player will be guaranteed to be a great manager, but Kompany’s playing career and the reputation he gained from it is absolutely a factor in Bayern approaching him.
Steve Cooper
Onto other strange managerial changes: the first one this year was Steve Cooper’s dismissal from Nottingham Forest. Yes Nottingham Forest were 17th at the time, but the sales of key players (Brennan Johnson for one) and their injury situation played a big part in this. Over his Forest tenure, Cooper averaged 1.43 points per match, a very respectable number. His replacement? Nuno Esperito Santos, coming off a stint managing Saudi Pro League side Al-Ittihad. Nuno’s best work came at Wolves, where he did objectively great work at the Midlands side, averaging 1.68 points per match across 199 matches in the Championship and Premier League. His short time at Spurs was not inspiring, and after his appointment at Forest, he averaged 1.15 points per match, and Forest barely survived relegation, ending the season in the exact same place they were in when Steve Cooper apparently deserved to be sacked. Whether this really has more to do with the Forest management is unknown, but the change was not a noticeable improvement!
Mauricio Pochettino
I think most football fans were surprised to see Chelsea parting ways with Mauricio Pochettino at the end of the Premier League season. Yes, the side struggled early on in the season, but it cannot be argued how much they improved in the second half of the season, winning the 4th most points in the league in 2024, behind only the clear cut top-3 of Man City, Arsenal, and Liverpool. The squad of young players had finally shown some chemistry and will to fight for results, and Pochettino had clearly won over the dressing room. At the end of the season, Chelsea finished in 6th place (compared to 12th last year), and only missed out on Europa League qualification due to Manchester United winning the FA Cup final from 8th place in the league. The Chelsea players were noticeably unhappy about Pochettino’s departure, with many first team players expressing sadness on social media about the change. If there were a handful of elite managers available for hire at the end of this year, I would’ve been able to understand letting Pochettino go, but there isn’t a wealth of options. The 4 main candidates were Roberto de Zerbi (we’ll get to him later), Kieran McKenna from Ipswich, Brentford’s Thomas Frank, and Leicester City’s Enzo Maresca. Recent reports by the Athletic indicate that Chelsea have chosen Enzo Maresca as their preferred replacement for Pochettino, leaving Chelsea and neutral fans alike not knowing what to expect. The criticisms of Enzo at Leicester this season, with the most expensive squad the Championship has ever seen, were valid; his side were 11 points clear in the automatic promotion spots on January 1st with only 3 losses in 25 matches. Since then, Leicester lost 8 of their final 21 games, finishing with the 5th highest points total of 2024 but hanging on to the Championship title and automatic promotion in the end (helped by some poor form at the end of the year from promotion rivals Leeds and Ipswich). Often showing a possession game that consisted of a horseshoe of passing around the opponent’s box without any penetrative passes to speak of, Leicester fans have been left frustrated on more than a handful of occasions by Enzo’s approach. Chelsea suffered from the same problems this year – often lacking the penetrative passes into the box to produce goals and passing around in the opponent’s half without much threat. As it stands, it does not seem likely that Enzo will solve those problems for Chelsea unless he changes his approach. In the end, Chelsea targeting Championship managers feels a long way off from their recent history. If there is any Championship manager I think has the most potential, it is Ipswich’s Kieran Mckenna, who was informed recently he was no longer being considered for the Chelsea job.
Roberto de Zerbi
I said we’d get to Roberto de Zerbi later, and now we will. The Brighton manager who took England by storm after replacing Graham Potter and improving on what was already seen as a fine job done by Potter with Brighton, achieving Europa League qualification last season. Brighton’s results this year were not nearly as successful, but losing Moises Caicedo and Alexis Mac Allister without finding suitable replacements for them was always going to cause issues. Add in long term injuries to key players such as Kaoru Mitoma, and it makes sense why Brighton finished 11th this year with the added European schedule. With de Zerbi being linked to several jobs over the past year due to his impressive performances with Brighton, it seems likely that his departure “by mutual consent” was a decision by the club to let him go before he left them for another job. Now Brighton have the whole summer to decide on his replacement, instead of de Zerbi potentially accepting another job weeks before the start of the new season leaving Brighton scrambling for a new manager. As previously mentioned, de Zerbi does not appear to be the preferred candidate for the Chelsea job so it is unknown where he might end up next.
Erik ten Hag
Finally we will address Erik ten Hag’s potential departure from Manchester United. While not officially announced by the club, The Guardian reported that ten Hag’s future had been decided by new owners INEOS, with the Dutch coach to be sacked following the FA Cup final, regardless of the result of the final. As we now know, Manchester United won the FA Cup, which could give INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe a tougher decision to make, but press conferences by ETH around the FA Cup final did not offer any assurance that his future was secured. He notably said : “If they don’t want me, I will go anywhere else and win trophies. That is what I do.” So if he is sacked, he certainly doesn’t feel like he deserves to be, but it is hard to predict. Looking at ten Hag’s record with United, including his transfers, sacking him makes sense to me. However like with some of these other managerial changes, sacking him with the currently available pool of managers does not make sense, with no clear cut improvement available. United could just be victims of another trigger happy managerial change, with ETH’s replacement not faring any better, but only time will tell.
Thanks for joining me on this look back on what has undoubtedly been a strange year for managers in English football. Stay tuned for the next article!
Hello again, football fans! I hope everyone’s had an enjoyable holidays, and are ready for the second half of the season in Europe! As we are pretty much at the halfway point for Europe’s top 5 leagues, I thought I’d start a series looking at the top players from each position based on performance this season alone! Today’s article will be the keepers, and there are certainly some standouts to discuss, none more so than this articles headliner: Alvaro Valles.
Álvaro Valles (La Liga/ Las Palmas,/26 years old)
For me, the award of “Most Valuable Keeper” so far this season can only go to one man. Álvaro Valles is performing so much better than any other keeper could be expected to in his place, it is almost unbelievable. Playing for a newly promoted Las Palmas side in La Liga, Valles has accumulated a mind-blowing 10.3 Goals Prevented so far this season across 18 matches.
Goals Prevented and xG on Target (xGoT):
Goals Prevented is an advanced statistic that compares the total xGoT (xG on Target) a keeper has faced to the number of goals conceded. Most of you have probably heard of xG by now, but perhaps not xGoT. While xG is a measure of the quality of shot selection (location of shot, # of nearby defenders, type of shot), xGoT is a measure of the quality of the actual shot taken. The most obvious example to use is someone like Roberto Carlos, known for his powerful and accurate free kicks. The xG given to a Roberto Carlos free kick would be very low, because it is based on an average of all shots taken by all footballers in that league over time (let’s say the xG = 0.05). Now let’s say Roberto Carlos takes the free kick, and it is perfectly struck right into the top corner, off the post and in. The xGoT attributed to this shot would be very high, much higher than the initial xG, due to the quality of Carlos’s shot. This is why we use xGoT when analysing keepers, not xG. To summarize, “Goals Prevented” is the difference between all of the xGoT accumulated on a keeper, and that keeper’s goals conceded.
Now, back to Valles. Valles has a Goals Prevented total this year of 10.3 so far, meaning based on the quality of shots he has faced, we would expect at least 10 more goals to have been conceded by Valles. To put this stat into context, the next best in La Liga is Unai Simon, with 4 Goals Prevented, while the Premier League’s leader, Thomas Kaminski, has 5.0 Goals Prevented, less than half that of Valles! Las Palmas, as a newly promoted side, have the 2nd fewest goals conceded in La Liga after only Real Madrid, and Alvaro Valles is the biggest reason why. Las Palmas currently sit 9th in La Liga at the time of writing, and one has to expect them to stay mid-table if they can hold on to Valles, which may not be a sure thing. Barcelona are reportedly already looking at buying Valles from Las Palmas, which would make sense from their perspective.
Thomas Kaminski (Premier League/Luton Town/ 31 years old)
After making 118 appearances for Blackburn from 2020-2023, Thomas Kaminski signed with Luton Town ahead of their inaugural Premier League season. Since joining, he has been outstanding for the Hatters, seemingly giving them a chance in every game despite not having nearly as much talent in the squad as the rest of the league. This is reflected in the fact that Luton are 3rd worst in the Premier League in goals conceded this year, and yet Kaminski is still outperforming expectations, with 5.0 Goals Prevented this season. With Luton currently sitting one win from pulling themselves out of the relegation zone, there will be one main person to thank if they stay up this year, Thomas Kaminski. His performances against the best clubs in the league have been quite admirable , making 5 stops to earn a draw vs Liverpool, while outperforming his expected goals conceded in near every match Luton play.
Marcin Bulka (Ligue 1/OGC Nice/24 years old)
Undoubtedly the top keeper in Ligue 1 this season, and a major part in Nice sitting just 5 points off league leaders PSG by New Year’s, the Polish former Chelsea academy keeper is truly making a name for himself this season. 17 matches played, 11 clean sheets. Yes, you read that correctly. Bulka has recorded a clean sheet in 65% of Nice’s Ligue 1 matches this season, and Nice’s 9 goals conceded so far is the lowest in Ligue 1, 5 less than next best PSG and Lille. Bulka boasts the highest save percentage in Ligue 1, as well as a very respectable 4.0 Goals Prevented. Bulka has saved 2/3 of the penalties he’s faced this year, and looks to become one of the transfer market’s most wanted keepers if he can continue this form. At only 24 years old, the sky is very much still the limit for Bulka and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s moved on from Nice in a year’s time.
Guglielmo Vicario (Premier League/Spurs/27 years old)
Throughout last season, it became a sad truth to Spurs that their longtime leader in net, Hugo Lloris, was clearly past his prime and could no longer offer what is needed from a modern goalkeeper, especially with the ball at his feet and acting as a sweeper. Enter Guglielmo Vicario, fresh off a career season at Empoli where he was the main reason that Empoli did not get relegated (see: this year’s Serie A table), arriving at Spurs for a 18.5 million euro fee. Vicario wasted no time upon arriving, establishing himself as the clear #1 keeper of the future and showing how perfectly suited he was to play under Ange Postecoglu’s new system at Spurs. If there were any doubts about Vicario’s sweeping ability before this year, I’d like to turn your attention to the Chelsea 4-1 Spurs result from this year. In this match, Spurs went down to 9 men and played an extremely high line despite the disadvantage, often at the midfield line. Countless times Vicario sprung out of his box to clear a through ball sent in behind the Spurs’ backline, and he alone prevented the scoreline from being something closer to 8-1. Having watched every Spurs game so far this year, I have yet to see a bad performance from Vicario, he has been without a doubt Tottenham’s most consistent player this season, offering so much calmness and composure at the back. Even when his teammate makes a mistake, Vicario is quick to tell them to shake it off and move on, unlike many keepers we see who seem to love any opportunity to scream at their defence whenever they make a save. From his ball playing ability, to his shot stopping, to his mentality and leadership, Guglielmo Vicario has been a perfect signing for Spurs, and will be one of the Premier League’s top keepers for years to come.
Honorable Mentions: Lukas Hradecky (Leverkusen), Marvin Schwabe (Koln), Michele Di Gregorio (Monza), Yann Sommer (Inter), Brice Samba (Lens)
Conclusion:
So that wraps up my top performers in goal so far this season! How many of these keepers will remain on their team in a year’s time, and how many will be picked up by bigger clubs? By just how much will Alvaro Valles finish the season as the best keeper in La Liga? Will Thomas Kaminski or Guglielmo Vicario finish the year with the most Goals Prevented in the Premier League? We’ll have to wait and see to find out the answers to these questions, but that’s the fun of football isn’t it? Thanks to everyone for reading, and as always feel free to leave any comments or suggestions!
Hello football fans, I hope you’ve all been enjoying the interesting start to the season across Europe’s leagues! Today I’d like to look at some of my favorite success stories that were perhaps unpredicted heading into the year. With that, let’s start from the top of UEFA’s league rankings and go from there.
English Premier League: West Ham and Wolverhampton
At the start of the season, West Ham and Wolves both had a troubling lack of signings, and there were well-merited concerns that both clubs could be in relegation danger if things did not go their way this year. West Ham addressed their lack of signings, bringing in Mohamed Kudus, Edson Alvarez, and James Ward Prowse. The latter has been as sensational as you would expect the best set-piece taker in the league to be under David Moyes, a set-piece enamored manager. West Ham have marked wins over Chelsea and Brighton to start the season, with their only losses being to Liverpool and Manchester City. After just 7 games, I believe West Ham have shown enough for relegation concerns to be a thing of the past, and they very well might have their sights set on European places again! It will be interesting to see the toll their Europa League campaign takes on their Premier League season.
Wolves on the other hand, did not address their lack of signings, as their financial troubles handcuffed their player recruitment. However, Gary O’Neill deserves plenty of praise for the way Wolves have played to start the season. He has great attacking options in Matheus Cunha, Hwang-Hee Chan, and Pedro Neto, who have proven to be very dangerous breaking in the counter -attack against teams playing a high-line possession game. Wolves were unlucky not to get a point from Old Trafford in the season opener, with THAT Onana non-call robbing them of a last-minute penalty to secure a draw. I must say that they have been inconsistent. Wolves were heavily outplayed by Liverpool and surprisingly Luton Town, but were able to match Manchester United, Brighton, and Manchester City in terms of xG produced during those matches. A win over Manchester City last week is the biggest surprise of the Premier League so far, with few people expecting Guardiola’s men to lose their first game to Wolves. I cannot say that Wolves are guaranteed safety from relegation yet, but their performances have certainly been much better than that of a relegation side. If they can find some more consistency against the lower teams in the table, then I believe Wolves have every chance to stay up, and even finish in a mid-table position.
Honorable Mention: Spurs
(Disclaimer: I support Spurs)
I was optimistic about Spurs entering this season under Ange Postecoglu, especially with the signings of James Maddison, Guglielmo Vicario, and Micky van de Ven. Several problem areas from last season were addressed with those signings and I rate Postecoglu highly as a manager, he seems to be a perfect fit for Spurs so far. That being said, I did not expect Spurs to have this good of a start to the season. Postecoglu’s teams usually take a while before getting into their true stride, but the speed at which this new-look Spurs squad have adapted to his system is truly impressive. Maddison has been a revelation, being arguably the best player in the Premier League so far, producing 2 goals and 4 assists through 7 games. Yves Bissouma looks reborn in midfield, with everyone questioning why on earth Antonio Conte didn’t play him last year. No player across Europe’s top 5 leagues have had a more all-around impact in midfield than Bissouma, who is winning tackles, breaking presses, and making progressive passes constantly throughout each match. Even against strong pressing teams like Arsenal and Liverpool, Bissouma calmly kept possession under a press countless times, showing his class. Currently Spurs sit 2nd in the table, having notched wins over Manchester United and Liverpool, while showing incredible spirit to fight back twice to earn a 2-2 draw at the Emirates in the North London Derby. Squad depth and injuries are a potential issue for the team, but with no other competitions until January, Spurs can be optimistic about their chances of continuing this start into the January transfer window, where more reinforcements will be needed to mount a serious charge for the top spots in the table.
La Liga: Girona
After a 10th place finish last year, and being promoted from the 2nd division of Spain the year prior, I don’t think many expected Girona to start this La Liga season right up at the top of the table. Ukrainian attacking duo Artem Dovbyk and Viktor Tsigankov have been stellar for Girona to start the year, notching 3 goals and 4 assists between them. Savio Moreira, on loan from Troyes, is a promising Brazilian youngster who is the third main man in attack, with 4 goals and 2 assists through 8 games. Youth is a common theme in this team, with 3 out of 4 members of Girona’s most regular starting XI being 22 years old or younger. Veteran Daley Blind leads the young backline, complemented by Eric Garcia on loan from Barcelona, with Miguel Gutierrez and Yan Couto supporting from fullback. The one criticism of the hype around Girona could be their strength of schedule. They have not yet beaten a team that finished in the top half of La Liga last season, drawing Real Sociedad and recently losing 0-3 at home to Real Madrid. Time will tell if this young squad can maintain this blazing start and challenge the established elite in La Liga.
Serie A: Lautaro Martinez
With Romelu Lukaku departing for Roma in the offseason, and Andre Onana heading to Manchester United, Inter Milan needed someone to step up. That someone has been Lautaro Martinez. A whopping 9 goals through the first 7 matches of the Serie A campaign, with an average of 61 minutes played per goal. In addition, Martinez is outperforming his xG significantly, with those 9 goals coming from 4.6 xG. The addition of Marcus Thuram on a free transfer was priceless for Inter in a way, and the frenchman has found an instant chemistry with Lautaro up front in Inzaghi’s 5-3-2 system. Thuram has contributed 4 assists and added 2 goals of his own, to form Italy’s best attacking duo so far. Inter sit first in Serie A, ahead of their rivals AC Milan on goal difference, largely in part to the 5-1 win in the Milan derby. The Nerazzurri do not look to have lost a step from their UCL-final pace of last season, and should be considered early favorites for the Scudetto.
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen
Xabi Alonso’s squad is firing on all cylinders to start the Bundesliga campaign. 5 wins and 1 draw, with the draw being away to Bayern Munich, and Leverkusen sit top of the Bundesliga table after Bayern’s draw with Leipzig. In the match against Bayern, nothing separated the teams, with the usual Bayern dominance seeming to fade. That’s not to say Bayern aren’t playing well, but we aren’t used to seeing legitimate contenders for the German title, in the past Bayern have often already been 5-8 points clear at the top after 6 games. Both Leipzig and Leverkusen look to have the ability to truly challenge Bayern this season, and it may be the most interesting title race Germany has seen in a while.
Honorable Mention: Serhou Guirassy
The Guinean striker in his first season as a full time Stuttgart player has almost single handedly willed them to 2nd place in the Bundesliga off his incredible 10 goals through 6 games. Now the only top team played in this stretch was Leipzig, where Stuttgart lost 5-1, but Guirassy scored the only goal. While Stuttgart shouldn’t be expected to maintain their standing in the table, Guirassy has put himself in a place to challenge for the Golden Boot this year!
Eredivisie: Heracles Almelo
So far, the biggest surprise in the Eredivisie is not a good one, Ajax sitting 1 point above the relegation places after winning just 1 of their first 4 games. That win came against our positive surprise, Heracles Almelo. The newly promoted club from the Dutch 2nd division play in the town of Almelo, home to just over 70,000 inhabitants. This is their first year in the top-flight of Dutch football in 28 years, and they have made the most of it so far! Following their opening day loss to Ajax, Heracles have only fallen to FC Utrecht since then, earning wins against NEC Nijmegen, Excelsior Rotterdam, and PEC Zwolle, in addition to a strong result drawing away to AZ Alkmaar. That is enough to put Heracles in 7th place after the opening 7 games, 7 points clear of the relegation zone. There will be no dreams of a title this year, but Heracles are giving their fans plenty to be happy about, showing that they might be deserving to stay up this season!
Ligue 1: Akor Adams
I have to stop and say I told you so on this one, because I told you so. In my previous article on the top talents in the Norwegian league I thought would be getting a transfer soon, leading the list was Lillestrom’s striker Akor Adams. Montpellier noticed his talents and acquired the Nigerian striker for 4.5 million euros entering this season. After Montpellier’s teenage sensation Elye Wahi moved to RC Lens after scoring 19 goals in 33 Ligue 1 games last season, there was a hole to fill. Akor Adams has come in from the Eliteserien and made an instant impact, with 5 goals already in his first 7 matches, on pace to surpass Wahi’s total from the season prior. Adams is just another example of the talent level that’s available to teams in Europe in the Eliteserien, and you can be sure I’ll be flagging the next Akor Adams as soon as I spot him in Norway.
Liga Portugal: Robert Bozenik
The much needed future of the Slovak national team’s attack, Robert Bozenik is a name that is likely unknown to most of you reading this, which is why I chose him as my best surprise of the season. Already capped 33 teams by the senior national team by age 23, Bozenik has been the best striker option for Slovakia more due to a lack of depth in the position than his goalscoring record. With only 6 goals in 49 games while under contract at Feyenoord, Bozenik was sold to Boavista in the Liga Portugal this summer after spending last season on loan at the club. Last year, Bozenik tallied 4 goals in 27 appearances. This season, he has already surpassed this, with 5 goals in his first 7 matches, including a brace in Boavista’s win over Benfica! The young striker looks to be hitting his stride now, and if he can maintain this form over the season, he will be crucial in Slovakia’s quest to qualify for Euro 2024 and Boavista’s goal of a finish in the European places.
It’s still early in the season, but I thought these players and clubs deserved a mention for their strong starts to the season, despite what was expected of them. Hopefully you’ve heard of a player you didn’t know before, or learned about a new club! Be sure to check back in for more player scouting, game analysis, and overall football discussions. Thanks for reading!
I’m sure I was not the only one shocked when watching Monday’s game when Manchester United hosted Wolves at Old Trafford, and then proceeded to get completely outplayed but somehow came away with 3 points. Now some might say, “who cares, they got the win”, but ignoring the result there are some concerning takeaways from this game. Here’s how the two teams lined up:
Straight away, this is a squad worth nearly 900 million euros at home against a team worth a shade over 350 million euros who many (myself included) picked as potential relegation candidates this season. This should not have been a close game, never-mind a domination by Wolves in every area except the final score. However, Wolves seemed to have United figured out from minute one, and their pressing tactics proved to be extremely effective in preventing Manchester United from building out from the back.
The first thing to note is that Manchester United had a very small starting lineup, especially in midfield and up front. Marcus Rashford is the tallest of the bunch, at just over 6′ tall. This presents an issue in that Manchester United will have to be predictably one-sided in possession. The biggest risk to pressing high is that the space left behind the defence can be exploited by a long ball to a forward. However, none of Manchester United’s front 5 could reliably be expected to win headers over Wolves’ defenders. This meant that United had to play out from the back, on the ground. With this in mind, Gary O’Neill instructed his side to force United into playing the ball to Wan-Bissaka, identifying him as the weakest on-the-ball player in the United backline. Here is how the Wolves press looked on the pitch:
Note the clear shift of the team over to United’s left side of the pitch. Wolves know that United want to try and get the ball to Bruno Fernandes or Mason Mount, through the triangles formed by Casemiro and the defense which are supposed to help break through the initial line of press. On the left flank, Matheus Nunes pulled inside to block the passing lane to Bruno when United had the ball at the back. Pedro Neto positioned himself in a place to block the passing lane to Mason Mount, while being close enough to Luke Shaw to prevent him from becoming a viable passing option. The striker duo of Cunha and Sarabia aimed to further block off Mount and Casemiro, while forcing United to play the ball to the right. When this happened, the Wolves press shifted like so:
Matheus Nunes instantly charged out to meet Wan-Bissaka as he received the ball, while the strikers moved over to effectively remove the passing lanes to Casemiro and Fernandes. This meant Wan-Bissaka could play a rushed pass to Antony, where Ait-Nouri was waiting to instantly close him down to win the ball back alongside Mario Lemina, or he could pass back to Varane or Onana. Wan-Bissaka generally chose to pass back, and when the ball came back to Onana, the Wolves press had reset to its original position. Essentially, Onana’s only real option to try and progress the ball was to make a quick long-ball pass to Garnacho on the left flank. Garnacho did not have enough support from Mount and Shaw if the ball came to him in this position, as they were pinned back by the Wolves press and forced to stay closer to goal. The header would be won by Semedo or Dawson, and Wolves could generate a scoring opportunity. Just as Wolves exposed the weaker on-the-ball right side of United’s build-up play, most of the attack was targeted down United’s left flank. Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez struggled to make an impact in this game, as they were marked out of play in possession, and struggled to contain Pedro Neto out of it.
Now you might be thinking, “Ok, Wolves were better than United when United had the ball, and were better creating chances on the counter, but surely Wolves wouldn’t be able to build out from the back better than United?” Unfortunately, you would be wrong.
Manchester United attempted a similar pressing trap as Wolves, seeming to want the ball to go to the LB, Rayan Ait-Nouri. Wolves would have a numerical advantage playing out from the back, and with a few different passing patterns would be able to work the ball out to the free man, Ait-Nouri. At this point however, neither Bruno or Antony moved to press Ait-Nouri as Matheus Nunes did to Wan-Bissaka. United looked like they wanted to engage around the halfway point of the pitch, in an effort to have more space behind the defence when the ball was won back. Unfortunately for United, they did not win the ball back on that flank very often. Ait-Nouri had space to run, and by the time Wan-Bissaka met him at the halfway line, there was already a triangle with Nunes and Cunha that Wolves used to play around the United defence far too easily. Once the ball came to Cunha specifically, the striker was able to run through the midfield of United with ease, and bring Wolves into the final third by himself very often, setting up Sarabia and Neto for a few good chances. Neto had the best chance of the game and will be regretting not converting it.
So how can Manchester United adapt to avoid being so one-dimensional and predictable? Bring back Wout Weghorst, of course! I joke, but the hole that Ten Hag brought Weghorst in to fill last year still remains void. If United aren’t going to bring in any more signings up front, we can assume that the long-ball won’t be a great option to get away from a high-press. If Ten Hag chooses to start Diogo Dalot at right-back instead of Wan-Bissaka, he would force opposition teams to be wary of the ball playing ability of either full-back and make them unable to force his team to one side before squeezing any space out. The downside to this, is that United would be dropping their best 1v1 defender in the team. Considering next week’s game is against Spurs, who could have any of Son Heung-Min, Ivan Perisic, or Manor Solomon starting on the left-wing, keeping Wan-Bissaka on the bench could make United extremely vulnerable in defense, as Dalot will have a hard time keeping any of those options in check for a full 90 minutes. It is possible that without any new signings, the best way to get rid of United’s biggest weakness in build-up may actually be the most unlikely change to happen. I say this because that change is the abandonment of positional play theory in build-up. Ten Hag is a coach of the Guardiola school, meaning he prefers to instruct his teams in positional play, which in essence is positioning your players to cover as much of the pitch as possible in possession. What I think Ten Hag might benefit from is studying the tactics of the Fluminense manager, Fernando Diniz. Diniz has revolutionized possession football, entirely abandoning positional play structures for something known as “relationism” instead. Diniz does not care about covering as much of the pitch as possible with his players’ positioning, as traditional positional play managers from the Guardiola school prioritize. However, his relationism tactics revolve around player’s positioning in relation to one another, instead of in relation to the space on the pitch. In build-up, you can often see almost the entirety of the Fluminense team shifted to one side of the pitch, to create numerical advantages that would not be possible in positional play. Instead of the set passing patterns of a Guardiola side, Diniz leaves the passing patterns up to his players’ creativity, instructing them to position themselves so that whoever gets the ball has a multitude of passing triangles available to them, so the specific pass is up to the player on the ball. Fluminense orchestrate very fast, intricate build-up moves, with no player holding the ball for longer than 2 seconds, and constant movement and interchanging between players to confuse defenses. With what United lack in size, they can make up for in the natural flair of their attacking players. While perhaps Antony likes to hold on to the ball a bit too long for this style of play and would require coaching into it, players like Garnacho, Sancho, Fernandes, Mount, and Rashford could suit this style perfectly. If United were to try overloading one side of the pitch in build-up, it could look more like this:
Now in the same situation as earlier, if the ball is played to Wan-Bissaka, his options are no longer only a pressured-pass to Antony, or a back-pass. Once the first open man is found, the players would quickly move to provide say, Casemiro, with a similar variety of passing options. This approach could help get the most out of a smaller team, and force defenders into some difficult decisions that they may not be used to. If the Wolves backline gets caught-up in the action on the right side, then Garnacho may be left open in much more space than he had in this match, and room to receive the ball and run. If you want to see more examples of this “relationism” I’m referring to, search up some Fluminense highlights from within the past year, and notice where the players position themselves in possession.
While admittedly this would be a huge change from the system Ten Hag is used to, I believe positional play is not suiting the current Manchester United squad, and a more relational approach could surprise the Premier League, which has become accustomed to Guardiola’s positional play and similar systems. As it stands, I think United need a tactical change, or need to bring in yet another new signing to make Ten Hag’s preferred system work best. I hope you found this insightful as the kind of article mainstream football media would not cover. Feel free to leave a comment, and check back soon for more football content!
Manchester City don’t look to be settling into complacency anytime soon. Erling Haaland opened his account for the season just 4 minutes into the match at Turf Moor. A de Bruyne cross from wide was headed back centrally by Rodri to be smashed into the bottom corner by Haaland. The Norwegian added his second off a first time finish from a Julian Alvarez pass, off the crossbar and in. Burnley were by no means a defeated team, and fought all game valiantly to break through the City defense. Substitutions of Zaroury and Bruun Larsen in the second half energized Burnley and led to some chances created, but in the end the final touch was not there. Josko Gvardiol made his debut as a substitute in the second half, on at LB, but did not get much time to show his quality. Rodri added City’s third of the game off a bouncing ball in the box that he was in the right position to slot home calmly. Zaroury was dismissed late in the second half for a bad challenge on Kyle Walker, who left the game after the tackle. Overall, Burnley showed promising signs, but there is still a significant ways to go before they can challenge Manchester City.
Game 2: Arsenal 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Arsenal started off their season strong in the first half, with intricate passing in build-up, and several chances generated. Mikel Arteta surprised again with his lineup, starting Thomas Partey at RB, playing him in the “John Stones” role from last season. The midfield was composed of Odegaard, Rice, and Havertz, with Eddie Nketiah starting between Martinelli and Saka up front. Nketiah struck first in the 26′, after a beautiful spin into a back-heel assist from Martinelli. Arsenal kept up the pressure, and Saka struck a beautiful ball from outside the box into the top left corner. In the second half, Arsenal started to let up towards the 70′, and after a corner Anthony Elanga and Taiwo Awoniyi broke the length of the field against Arsenal’s defence and scored to make the Gunners nervous for the final 15 minutes. However, there would be no shock result in the end, and Arsenal grab 3 points to get started.
Game 3: Bournemouth 1 – 1 West Ham
Bournemouth showed a new side of their game today, holding 63% of possession against the Hammers. However, chances created were similar, and although Bournemouth had more shots on target, they were unable to make the result show for it. West Ham got off to a great start to the second half with Jarrod Bowen scoring a beautiful curler into the top corner to go ahead. The Hammers were unable to hold their lead, and Dominic Solanke equalised for Bournemouth in the 82′, leading to a draw. New signing Milos Kerkez had a strong game, with a 77% pass completion rate, and 8 passes played into the final third. Had it not been for a wonderstrike from Bowen, Bournemouth might have gotten away with 3 points here, but they weren’t robbed by any means.
Game 4: Brighton 4 – 1 Luton Town
It was a bit of a baptism by fire for Luton Town on their trip to the South Coast to start their Premier League campaign. The xG created was 4.10 – 1.45 in Brighton’s favour, with the Seagulls accumulating 27 total shots, 12 of them on target. Kaoru Mitoma found Solly March with a tricky right-footed cross to put Brighton ahead in the 36′. Most of Brighton’s shots in the first half were off target, and the score was only 1-0 at halftime. In the second half, Brighton turned it up another notch. Joao Pedro won a penalty after being bowled over by Tom Lockyer, and then converted it himself to make the lead 2. In the 81′, Luton Town were given a glimpse of hope, converting their own penalty to draw within 1, but the hope was short-lived. New arrival Simon Adingra struck in the 85′ to add to Brighton’s lead, and Evan Ferguson finished off the game with a 95′ goal. New signings James Milner and Mahmoud Dahoud had strong first games for Brighton, and the Seagulls don’t appear to have lost a step without Caicedo and Mac Allister.
Game 5: Everton 0 – 1 Fulham
The story of this game was the German keeper, Bernd Leno. Although his side had 59% possession, this was due to Everton’s direct counter-attacking approach, which was able to generate 2.93xG to Fulham’s 1.48 over the game. Leno made 9 saves, and Fulham struck on their own counter-attack, with Mitrovic and Pereira combining before Bobby Decordova-Reid slotted home the cross from inside the 6 yard box. After being under pressure for the majority of the game, Fulham were able to grab a goal against the run of play, and fans will surely be happy to see Aleksandar Mitrovic playing, even if only as a substitute. Still a promising start for Everton, who surely deserved more from this game.
Game 6: Sheffield United 0 – 1 Crystal Palace
The home-field advantage of Bramall Lane wasn’t enough to help Sheffield United to any points on their opening match vs Palace. With no Olise in the lineup due to injury, and new signing Matheus França not available yet, Schlupp and Ayew started on either side of Eberechi Eze on the wings. Eze had a player of the match performance, looking cool under pressure and helping Crystal Palace to 67% possession in this match. The Blades could not create much in terms of chances, being outshot 3 to 1 by Palace, and only managing a lone shot on target. Palace created 2.01xG from 8 shots on target, and could have won by more had it not been for a few goals that were fractionally offside and rightly called back. A strong start for Crystal Palace, even if the scoreline does not reflect that.
Game 7: Newcastle 5 – 1 Aston Villa
In the most intriguing match of the day, Newcastle hosted Unai Emery’s rising Aston Villa squad. The early game was a story of new signings, with Sandro Tonali putting Newcastle ahead early before Moussa Diaby equalized for Villa inside 11 minutes played. Just after a quarter of an hour, Alexander Isak put the Geordies back in front, stabbing home a centred ball from Botman. Newcastle predictably held the majority of the possession, with their midfield trio of Tonali, Guimaraes, and Joelinton all being extremely press-resistant. Newcastle were vulnerable on the counterattack, especially if Dan Burn ever pushed up on the left flank. The speed of Diaby, Watkins, and Bailey caused problems on the counter-attack, with Villa playing a direct game in the first half. Soon after kick-off in the second half, Alexander Isak grabbed his brace in the 58′, and Newcastle started to run away with the game. Callum Wilson added another in the 77′, assisted by new signing Harvey Barnes, who himself scored in the 91′ to cap off a 5-1 emphatic home victory to start their campaign. Emery will have some lessons to learn from this game, but alarm bells shouldn’t be ringing after game 1.
Game 8: Brentford 2 – 2 Tottenham
The start of a new era of Tottenham Hotspur began with a trip to West London. Ange-ball in full-effect, Spurs held 70% possession in the match, and completed more passes in the opposition half (455) than they had in nearly 20 months of football under Antonio Conte. This was a fresh, exciting look on Spurs, who are no longer playing the dreadfully boring low-block counter approach that Mourinho and Conte insisted on. With this increased focus on attacking though, Spurs are bound to concede goals this season, especially until more centre-back reinforcements arrive. The lack of depth at CB was exposed early, with Cristian Romero having to leave in the 15′ due to a precautionary concussion check, being replaced by Davinson Sanchez. Romero left immediately after scoring a header from a Maddison set piece to put Spurs ahead. There was an immediate drop-off in the stability in which Spurs could play out from the back, and combined with Oliver Skipp having the least notable performance of the Spurs midfield on the right side, there was immediate pressure invited on this half of the pitch. New signing Micky Van de Ven was a sight for sore eyes for Spurs fans, who have been longing for a centreback with his explosive pace and defensive ability to pair with Romero for ages. Brentford was able to take the lead after winning a questionable penalty that was converted by Mbeumo to tie the game, then adding another from Yoane Wissa in the 36′. Spurs tied the game just before halftime, with Maddison dribbling around his marker and slipping the ball to Emerson before being fouled, who took a first time volley into the bottom-left corner. In Postecoglu’s system, the RB Emerson is drifting inside and acting as another centre midfielder in possession, while the #8’s (Maddison and Skipp today) attack the box. The second half was a story of Spurs attacking and generating by far more chances, but with the best chance only being worth 0.12xG. Kevin Schade had Brentford’s best chance of the second half, but missed his attempt in the 87′ that could’ve seen Brentford stealing all 3 points. In the end, it was a very promising start for Ange Postecoglu at Spurs, with his team looking to be one of the most exciting to watch for a neutral fan this season. There will be goals. Lots of goals. Who will score them? We’ll find out.
Game 9: Chelsea 1 – 1 Liverpool
In the 1st edition of the Moises Caicedo derby, the result between Chelsea and Liverpool was the same as usual, but today wasn’t a goalless draw at least! While the Ecuadorian was not playing, just hours before the game he rejected Liverpool’s massive bid for him, telling Brighton that his intention is only to join Chelsea. Chelsea soon found a spare 115 million pounds lying around to sign arguably the hottest defensive midfield prospect in world football right now. This game started surprisingly, with Mauricio Pochettino opting for a 5-back formation for what seems like the first time ever. After using a 4-2-3-1 to great success in pre-season, Pochettino opted for somewhat of a 5-3-2 formation to face Liverpool. I’d guess that this was a reactionary approach to Liverpool’s expected tactics, as Pochettino rarely opts to diverge from his preferred 4-back systems. Liverpool were able to take advantage of the slow start from the Blues and scored 18′ in thanks to Luis Diaz tapping home a Mohamed Salah cross. Before the 30 minute mark, there was another scare for Chelsea, as Salah scored a goal that would be ruled offside after VAR. At this point, Poch seemed to convert his team into a 4-back system, with Levi Colwill acting as the LB, and Ben Chilwell acting more as a LM. Chelsea fared much better, and were clearly the better team for the rest of the game. New arrival (I know that doesn’t narrow it down much) Axel Disasi poked home a deflected ball in the box off a set-piece and equalised for Chelsea in the 38′. In the second half, Chelsea held 64% possession, and generated more chances than the Reds, with Mikhailo Mudryks run in alone on Alisson leading to a Nicolas Jackson chance being the best opportunity of the half. In the end, it is hard to argue either team deserved 3 points, but Chelsea certainly had the run of play for most of the game after their slow start. Liverpool desperately need a defensive midfielder, with Mac Allister acting as their most defensive midfielder in this match. It has been tough to sign one though, with bids for Caicedo and Lavia failing recently, and attempts to sign other players such as Sofyan Amrabat also failing. If Liverpool cannot get this key reinforcement, they could be in for a long season.
Game 10: Manchester United 1 – 0 Wolverhampton
In the final game of the week, Manchester United kick off their season hosting Wolves at Old Trafford. In the first half, Wolves held their own much better than expected, generating similar xG to United, with the 61% possession being the only thing to really separate the sides in the first half. Pedro Neto caused havoc down the right flank of Wolves, and yellow cards for Luke Shaw and Lisandro Martinez coming as a result. Wolves breaking with 3 forwards seemed to be enough to generate chances vs. United, which should be a concern for Erik Ten Hag. 5 minutes into the second half, Matheus Cunha missed a wide open top-half of the net as the ball was flicked across the 6-yard box to him in space that should have put Wolves in front. Pedro Neto looked unbelievably good this game, dribbling United’s defenders with ease time and time again. Nelson Semedo, a fullback not known for defending, was able to make Garnacho look near-invisible on the left-wing. Mason Mount’s United debut wasn’t the one he would’ve liked, and he was subbed off in the 67′ for Christian Eriksen. Garnacho’s night ended then as well, with Jadon Sancho getting his first minutes. Eriksen immediately made United more of a threat, threading a long ball over the top that was close to Rashford chance. Wolves were able to keep generating chances on the counter, with Cunha doing well to drive the ball forward through the middle of the pitch despite lacking the finish today. Sancho also aided United after coming on, being much more dangerous down the flank. United got a goal a bit out of nowhere, with a chipped ball over the top to Wan-Bissaka, who centred for Raphael Varane to head home and give United the lead despite having generating fewer chances in the game. After the goal, Wolves poured on the pressure, and Manchester United used everything they had to stop the ball from entering their net, including a pitch invader running on the pitch to add a man to the press on Wolves! Onana rushed out to try and meet a cross, missed the ball entirely and smashed into the Wolves player. After a VAR check, a penalty somehow wasn’t given, and Manchester United managed to escape with a 1-0 win against the run of play. A very strong start for Gary O’Neill’s Wolves, who will feel much more confident they can avoid relegation after such a performance. They certainly deserved as least a point from this game.
That makes for all of the matches on opening weekend! This looks to be one of the most interesting Premier League seasons in recent years, so be sure to stay tuned for what’s next! I’ll be providing regular updates as the season goes on.
Welcome back football fans, the summer break has ended, the transfer window has been in full swing, and clubs have started their pre-season tours around the world. In this article, I will look at each team’s offseason changes, what we could learn from their preseason games to-date, and my prediction for where they will finish in the league this season. Note that the transfer window is still open until September 1st, meaning we have a full month of possible transfers still ahead. For this reason, I will also explore potential transfers for the clubs that seem to still have some moves to make before the season starts. This article took a lot of time and research to complete, so if you enjoy, feel free to leave a comment!
First, let’s take a look at the map of teams in the 2023-2024 Premier League:
From last season, the Premier League lost Leicester City, Leeds United, and Southampton due to relegation. Replacing them from the Championship are Vincent Kompany’s Burnley, entering the Premier League as winners of the Championship, Sheffield United, making their return for the first time since the 2020-2021 season, and surprise playoff winners Luton Town, who have completed their rise from non-League to the Premier League. The longest away day of the season still belongs to the Newcastle-Bournemouth fixture, while England’s northwest gets two more teams in the region with Burnley and Sheffield United, both similar distances from Manchester. West London remains the area most populated with Premier League clubs, home to Chelsea, Fulham, and Brentford. Now, let’s go through the clubs competing in this Premier League season and explain my predictions.
*All league predictions are based on certain transfers going through, which at this point (August 11, 2023) are not finalized. All incomplete transfers will be underlined and marked with an asterisk*
My predicted final league table of the 2023-2024 English Premier League season is shown below – the European competition in brackets next to some teams indicate those that are competing in the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League this season:
1) Manchester City (2022-2023 Position: 1st)
Players Out: Ilkay Gündogan, Riyad Mahrez, Kyle Walker*, João Cancelo*
Players In: Mateo Kovacic, Josko Gvardiol*, Benjamin Pavard*, Michael Olise*
Best Possible XI: Ederson, Gvardiol*, Dias, Stones, Akanji, Rodri, Kovacic, de Bruyne, Grealish, Haaland, Olise*
The champs are back. Fresh off completing the second treble in English football history, Pep Guardiola’s men look to claim their 4th consecutive title this season. While Man City are still big favorites to win the title again this season, there have been some significant squad changes at the Etihad. Captain and arguably the most clutch player of their UCL triumph, Ilkay Gündogan, departed for Barcelona on a free transfer. Riyad Mahrez also left Manchester to join Al-Ahli in Saudi Arabia, leaving 2 large holes in the squad. Also looking increasingly likely is the end of Kyle Walker’s time at City, with the former Spurs RB looking for regular playing time after being dropped to the bench for much of last season. These are players who have been a part of each of the past 3 Premier League titles and will be taking valuable experience with them. So, what does Pep have planned to re-vamp his team for yet another title challenge?
The only official signing of the summer for City is Mateo Kovacic from Chelsea, a UCL winner in his own right, and a solid replacement for Gündogan in terms of playstyle. The main difference is that Kovacic is likely to stay further back and contribute less goals than Gündogan, so expect to see City’s tactics shift to accommodate this change. With a #8 signed, there remains the likely departure of Kyle Walker to address, as well as the confirmed departure of Riyad Mahrez. For the defence, City is heavily rumored to be interested in signing Benjamin Pavard from Bayern Munich, and nearly already completed their deal for Josko Gvardiol before Leipzig seemingly decided to ask for more money as the deal was nearly complete. Why is Gvardiol the highest priority target? First, he can play at LB or CB, letting Pep keep his system of playing 4 CB’s in his backline. With João Cancelo likely to be departing Man City soon as well, the addition of Gvardiol replaces that hole, while allowing Manuel Akanji to return to his preferred right side. Benjamin Pavard is also of this same player profile: experience playing at RB, but also is a CB and will play there frequently. Pavard’s addition would likely be only if/when Kyle Walker leaves, to balance out the backline depth. The final rumored signing that I believe makes a lot of sense for City is Michael Olise from Crystal Palace. If you need a Mahrez replacement, I think Olise is the closest thing we have to it in the Premier League right now. A left-footed right winger who plays inverted, cutting inside the pitch to help the midfield in buildup, and loves to pick out a shot to the far top-left corner.
City already had a fantastic squad, and if they complete the signings of Gvardiol and Olise, I believe they will be good for the title again this season. Good thing Pep won’t be renewing his contract in 2025 right, fans of every other team?
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 1st
2) Liverpool (2022/2023 position: 5th)
Players Out: Jordan Henderson, Roberto Firmino, Naby Keita, James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
Players In: Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Sofyan Amrabat*
Best Possible XI: Alisson, Robertson, Konaté, Van Dijk, TAA, Amrabat*, Mac Allister, Szoboszlai, Gakpo/Diaz, Darwin, Salah
As Anfield prepares for another season, its beloved Reds have had to do more re-building than we are used to over the past few seasons. Though it hasn’t been a full squad overhaul, the players that were brought in are very exciting, and will help Klopp implement his new system. The original “heavy-metal football” that Klopp joined the Premier League with has taken a toll on the players who have been at the club for some time. This past season, Klopp successfully switched his tactics into more of a mid-block in defense, preventing his team from being caught on the counter as much, as well as moving Trent inside the pitch, almost playing the same role in build-up that John Stones was playing for Man City. First, Liverpool signed Alexis Mac Allister from Brighton for a bargain fee of 42 million euros (in today’s market, that is a huge bargain). Mac Allister is a versatile midfielder who can play as any of a #6, #8, or #10. His penetrative passes from deep will unlock Liverpool’s extremely fast front 3, all while providing added support in midfield for Fabinho, who no longer has the stamina and pace to cover the entire midfield in defence like he used to unbelievably do. Trent’s inversion into midfield is another way of shoring up the defense in front of the back 4. As we saw last season, the box midfield was the most used tactic in buildup for strong teams. These 4 players are the foundation of the team’s buildup, and if they develop chemistry with one another can destroy defences. For next season, Liverpool will slot Mac Allister in as the left, more advanced of the midfield box, where he is quite comfortable and will cut inside before picking a pass or shooting. The last member of this midfield box that will be at the centre of Liverpool’s offense next season is my personal favorite transfer: Dominik Szoboszlai. The Hungarian from RB Leipzig can play across the front 4, or in midfield. Best used as an attacking midfielder, making runs into the box and being the main goal threat from midfield, Szoboszlai is also a set-piece specialist and a mentality monster. The poise with which he carries himself on the pitch is that of a 35 year old veteran, not a rising star. This combination of Szoboszlai and Mac Allister is going to bring some much needed energy and creativity to the Liverpool midfield.
On their ways out of Anfield are some of the aging squad members who were a part of Liverpool’s 2019 Champions League triumph. Captain Jordan Henderson joins Steven Gerrard at Al-Ettifaq, Roberto Firmino heads the same way to Al-Ahli, Naby Keita is off to Werder Bremen, and James Milner signed with Brighton. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is a free agent now as well, yet to sign with a club. This may seem like a significant number of players, but Liverpool already had replacement plans that were carried out in previous seasons: Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo came in to aid the forward line, Ibrahima Konaté has proven to be an excellent CB partner for Van Dijk, and youngsters Harvey Elliott and Stefan Bajcetic became established first-team members. The only signing I can see Liverpool making before the upcoming season is a defensive midfielder to replace Fabinho as the starter, but not someone who will block Stefan Bajcetic’s path to the starting XI one day. Fiorentina’s Sofyan Amrabat is one player who fits that profile perfectly. One of the best players of the 2022 world cup, the Moroccan was a space-eating defensive midfield vacuum and a large reason why Morocco made the semi-finals. Currently 26 years old, he is a player who could play 2-3 seasons for Liverpool as a starter in his prime before Bajcetic takes the reins, as he looks like the future for Liverpool.
I believe Liverpool will have a very strong season coming up. Anfield will be a fortress, and I do not expect the Reds to drop many points at home. Their hopes on a title challenge may balance on their away performances, and how well Liverpool can keep pace with Man City’s away results.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 2nd
3) Arsenal (2022/2023 position: 2nd)
Players Out: Granit Xhaka, Ainsley Maitland-Niles, Pablo Mari
Players In: Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Jurrien Timber, Folarin Balogun (back from loan)
Best Possible XI: Zinchenko, Saliba, White, Timber, Thomas, Rice, Ødegaard, Martinelli, Jesus, Saka
After a season that surprised most, including Arsenal fans, Mikel Arteta’s men fell just short at the final hurdle to win the Premier League. In the end, the biggest issue seemed to be the injury to William Saliba, and the lack of squad rotation leading up to that injury. Rob Holding and Jakub Kiwior were thrown into the fire with hopes that they would not burn, and although they cannot be blamed for Arsenal not winning the league, one can only imagine what might have been had Saliba not gone down.
In the summer, Arteta has gone out to address his squad depth in hopes that a stronger title challenge can be mounted this year. The only major departure is Granit Xhaka to Leverkusen, who played 37/38 matches in the league for Arsenal. To replace him, Arsenal have splashed a record transfer fee to pull Declan Rice away from West Ham, where he has played his entire career to-date. Also joining the midfield, while also being able to supplement the attack up front, is Kai Havertz from Chelsea. The 75M euro fee paid for Havertz seems a bit excessive when looking at his on-pitch production and not just at the fact that he has won a Champions League. I expect Havertz to play mostly in the midfield alongside Ødegaard in a 4-3-3, but also could see Arteta playing a 4-2-3-1 to allow both Rice and Thomas to play as double pivots, in which case Havertz/Ødegaard would play as the #10. Finally, Jurrien Timber has come in to bolster the backline, such that a major injury to Gabriel/Saliba/White would not grind the title challenge to an immediate halt. Arteta’s biggest challenge will be balancing squad rotation (looking long-term) with getting results and keeping up with what will likely be a very high standard set by Manchester City. I believe playing in the Champions League this year will have an impact on Arsenal’s league performance, and for that reason have given Liverpool the nod for 2nd, as Liverpool are more likely to prioritize the Premier League over the Europa League than Arsenal are to prioritize the Premier League over the Champions League.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 3rd
4) Manchester United (2022/2023 position: 3rd)
Players Out: David de Gea, Anthony Elanga, Alex Telles, Phil Jones
Players In: Rasmus Højlund, Andre Onana, Mason Mount, Leon Goretzka*
Best Possible XI: Onana, Shaw, Martinez, Varane, Dalot, Casemiro, Mount, Bruno, Rashford, Højlund, Antony
Manchester United are also back in the Champions League after several seasons finishing outside the top 4! Some might argue it was Liverpool, Spurs, and Chelsea all having poor seasons that allowed United back into Europe’s elite competition, but one cannot blame United for taking advantage of their rivals slipping. The Erik Ten Hag rebuild continues with a level of spending expected of Man U, with over 190M euros spent on the acquisitions of Onana, Højlund, and Mount. Onana replaces longstanding starter David de Gea, as the Spaniard finally departs Old Trafford after 12 years at the club. The Cameroonian keeper has played very well, both domestically and in the Champions League, for both Ajax and Inter Milan, leading Ajax to the semi-final and Inter to the final this past year. Onana reunites with his former boss Ten Hag, and hopes to give United supporters more confidence when playing out from the back this year, as a true sweeper keeper.
Mason Mount joins from Chelsea, able to help in the midfield or on the wing, giving Ten Hag some tactical flexibility if one of Rashford or Antony is injured. Yes, the fee was very high at over 64M euros, but a “Manchester United” tax is to be expected. Ten Hag will be hoping that this addition can help give Christian Eriksen more rest, as well as provide his team with UCL-winning experience. The final acquisition confirmed is that of Atalanta striker Rasmus Højlund. Højlund is a player I have had my eye on for years now, and have touted as the best striker to come out of Scandinavia since Erling Haaland. However, we should not be comparing the two players, as that will likely only lead to Højlund being unfairly criticized for not scoring at the record-breaking levels that Haaland has. What United now have is a true #9, a powerful left-footed striker who will certainly score more than Wout Weghorst last season. If given a few years, I believe Højlund has the potential to become one of the best strikers in the Premier League.
Overall, I believe that Manchester United have improved their squad enough to maintain their top-4 finish from last year, although this could be their last year in the top-4 for a few seasons if the club keeps spending so much every transfer window, especially given the trajectory of Newcastle, as well as the rebuilds of Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs.
Best Possible XI: Pope, Burn, Botman, Schar, Trippier, Guimaraes, Joelinton, Tonali, Barnes, Isak, Almiron
Money talks. Well, this is the Premier League, so you shouldn’t be surprised. After Newcastle were taken over by the foreign investment fund of the government of Saudi Arabia, they have risen from mid-table finishes, to challenging the elite of the Premier League. Last season, this was confirmed with a top-4 finish, earning the Geordies Champions League football. Eddie Howe has done well to bolster his squad ahead of a much more congested year of fixtures (last season, Newcastle did not play in a European competition). The most surprising transfer, and well the best example of Newcastle’s recent rise, is the 64M euro purchase of Sandro Tonali, AC Milan’s midfield engine. Tonali is one of the best midfielders in world football, end of sentence. Newcastle have made a statement, and brought in a proven winner with years of Champions League experience. Up front, Harvey Barnes was added from relegated Leicester to go along with the departure of Allan Saint-Maximin. Barnes and Saint-Maximin are not the same type of player, what Barnes lacks in flair and skill moves, he makes up for with his directness and better final-third play than ASM. I think Barnes is the starter at left-wing for the start of the season, as I think he has a more complete all-around game than Anthony Gordon.
In the league this year, I see Newcastle having a home fortress, and dropping very few points at St. James’ Park. However, a longer season full of European football will likely result in more points being dropped on the road, in games scheduled between UCL matches. For this reason, I do not think Newcastle will repeat their top-4 finish from last year, but will be able to build with the added funds from competing in the champions league, play Europa League football next season, and expect to be back in the top-4 by the 2025/2026 season.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 5th
6) Tottenham Hotspur
Players Out: Harry Winks, Lucas Moura, Davinson Sanchez*, Harry Kane
Players In: Micky van de Ven, James Maddison, Edmond Tapsoba*, Manor Solomon, Guglielmo Vicario, Ashley Phillips, Alejo Veliz, Pedro Porro (loan-to-buy), Dejan Kulusevski (loan-to-buy), Destiny Udogie (return from loan), Giovani Lo Celso (return from loan), Sergio Reguilon (return from loan), Tanguy Ndombele (return from loan), Bryan Gil (return from loan)
Best Possible XI: Udogie, Van de Ven, Romero, Porro, Bissouma, Maddison, Bentancur, Son, Kane, Kulusevski
Spurs are at the start of what could be a very exciting project. As you can see from the list of Players In, several players who were purchased in previous seasons only to be deemed surplus-to-requirements by the past 2 managers have returned from loans with a fresh slate and a new manager to impress. Let’s be honest too, Spurs needed a clean slate. The past seasons under Mourinho and Conte seemed like an identity crisis for the club, who took the overachievement of Pochettino as a level of results that needed to be matched. This led to the hiring of managers who were proven title-winners, and a change in recruitment strategy from young, high-potential prospects, to the acquisitions of more established veterans for higher transfer fees. Historically, this has always been a club who played high-energy, attacking football, and did not attempt to follow the transfer strategies of clubs like Chelsea and Manchester United, who regularly spend much more than Spurs. Finally, that can change. Appointing Ange Postecoglu as the new manager is a statement that Spurs are returning to the strategy that worked much better in the past: Hire a promising manager who has had success but never managed at the level of a club like Spurs, sign young players who fit the manager’s preferred style, and build up a strong squad over multiple seasons.
Postecoglu’s first signing was James Maddison from Leicester for just over 45M euros. Tottenham had been missing a creative midfielder since Chrisian Eriksen was sold to Inter Milan, and Maddison fits that bill. In addition, Maddison can provide more goals from midfield than any of Spurs’ prior options. Maddison will likely start the majority of league games in midfield, alongside Yves Bissouma, who has established himself as Postecoglu’s preferred #6. Expect Bissouma to regain the form he showed at Brighton this season; last year under Conte his personality and creativeness was stifled, and he was never given much of a change to be a regular starter. During pre-season, Bissouma looks to be a central member of the squad and to have regained his confidence.
Spurs have signed a defender finally, with Micky Van de Ven joining the club from Wolfsburg. A much needed CB signing, this means that Romero won’t be on his own in a backline with Dier, Davies, and Sanchez all starting together, and all Spurs fans know just how much that means. Van de Ven is the perfect partner for the aggressive stopper Romero, able to use his excellent pace to sweep and recover through balls. Now that Spurs will be playing a higher line under Postecoglu’s more possession based approach, a player like Van de Ven is essential to make that system work. Still young and with room to improve, this was money well spent. Another needed replacement was in net, with Hugo Lloris showing clear signs of declining last year. The Spurs club legend will be replaced by Empoli’s Guglielmo Vicario, a very highly-rated keeper who was wanted by Inter Milan to replace Onana as well. Vicario is a result of Spurs more data-driven recruitment approach, exceeding keeper averages in several key sweeping statistics, although he was playing for a bottom-table club who ceded the majority of possession. Under Postecoglu’s system, Vicario will have his opportunity to show that he is capable of becoming one of the world’s best, as Italian legend Gianluigi Buffon predicted he could.
The first time I wrote this, I asked the biggest question for Spurs, will Harry Kane stay? Well, like all other Premier League clubs, Spurs took personal offence to me trying to finish this article without 80 revisions, and sold Kane to Bayern Munich 2 days before their first game of the season! I’ll be honest, as a Spurs fan myself, I’ve tried to be optimistic, but selling your club’s all-time top scorer and best player to Bayern (the team who wins their league every year) because he wants to win trophies seems kinda… meh. I worry for Kane that a few trophies at Bayern will do nothing to change the narrative that has followed him through his career to-date. Unless he can win a Champions League with Bayern, no amount of trophies won in Germany will lessen the hate Kane has been unfairly given for ages. For Spurs, losing Kane 2 days before the season opener is truly less than ideal to put it lightly, having this deal completed weeks ago would have been much better but Bayern had no reason to care about what’s best for Spurs. In the meanwhile, don’t expect an immediate striker signing, that would be a foolish use of the Kane money. Now, every club in Europe knows Spurs have 100M to spend, and due to such will increase asking prices for any player. Signing a striker who is currently at Kane’s level would cost more than what Kane was sold for and be a bad piece of business. Richarlison will lead the line, as he does for Brasil, and finally get his chance to establish himself at Spurs. New signing Alejo Veliz from Rosario Central should also get much more gametime this season than he would have otherwise. The money should be spent on bringing in one or two more centre-backs, with Edmond Tapsoba and Aymeric Laporte being the two most likely targets, and then potentially adding a young winger with potential, as the loss of Kane could mean we see Son Heung-Min line up as the #9 some games.
My original Top 5 prediction has been thrown out the window by the Kane sale, and even if the money is re-invested into the squad intelligently, the Spurs project will need a season to get off the ground in their first season in over a decade without Harry Kane. Top 4 is very unlikely this season, but I think Spurs could still set their sights on a European finish and build on for next season.
Best Possible XI: Martinez, Moreno, Torres, Konsa, Cash, Diaby, Luiz, Kamara, Ramsey, Watkins, Buendia
We might have to start calling him Chef Emery after what he is doing with Aston Villa, because the man is cooking. After what was very clearly an overachievement last season taking Villa all the way up to 6th place from 16th place, where Villa sat after 12 games last year when Emery was appointed, Unai Emery has done some fantastic business to help give his squad the best chances of building on last year’s achievements. A statement of 88M euros was spent on bringing Pau Torres and Moussa Diaby to the club. Torres is a former player of Emery’s at Villareal, and has been one of the best centre-backs in La Liga for the past few seasons. I’m honestly surprised it’s taken this long for a Premier League team to buy him. Diaby is another huge signing for Villa. The winger registered an average of 0.6 G+A per 90 minutes for Leverkusen in the Bundesliga, Europa League, and Champions League matches last seasons, being highly sought after by many top clubs. Aston Villa made it a hat-trick of great signings, bringing in Youri Tielemans from Leicester on a free transfer. As Tielemans is getting older, he will likely be a squad option to help give Villa’s starting midfielders a rest, but brings a wealth of experience to a squad that still has many young players. While Villa will be competing in the Conference League this season (the only reason i haven’t predicted them higher), Emery has built a squad that is prepared for the Premier League and will have a chance to beat anyone. I believe Villa can finish as high as 5th place this year, if everything goes their way. However, I am a more pragmatic person than that, so I have them down for a strong 7th place finish.
Players Out: Alexis Mac Allister, Robert Sanchez, Deniz Undav (loan), Moises Caicedo*
Players In: João Pedro, Bart Verbruggen, Igor, Adrian Mazilu, Mahmoud Dahoud, James Milner, Mohamed Kudus*, Simon Adingra (return from loan)
Best Possible XI: Verbruggen, Estupinan, Igor, Dunk, Lamptey, Caicedo, Kudus*, Gross, Mitoma, Pedro, March
It is no secret now that Brighton are one of the best-run clubs in the Premier League. Over the last year, Brighton have made more money than it cost to build the AmEx Stadium through selling players (and managers) to Chelsea. Just Chelsea. Every time a Brighton player is bought by one of the big clubs in the league, it seems like the scouting department is able to find a replacement with relative ease. Here’s how Brighton have updated their squad for the coming season, in preparation for their first season of European football. In goal, Robert Sanchez was dropped in favor of Jordan Steele towards the end of last season due to his poor distribution specifically, but poor form overall. Brighton have since sold Sanchez to Chelsea and replaced him with Anderlecht’s Bart Verbruggen for a net profit, who I see as an immediate upgrade in net. While there were no major departures in defense, Fiorentina’s Igor has been brought in to help at CB. A 17M euro fee for a 25 year old central-defender is quite cheap in today’s market, and Igor will have every chance to impress and take a starting spot alongside presumably Lewis Dunk. In midfield, the loss of Alexis Mac Allister to Liverpool was mitigated by two excellent free transfers, and one excellent non-free transfer: Mahmoud Dahoud, James Milner, and Mohamed Kudus are joining the Seagulls. Dahoud and Milner seem like depth and experience acquisitions on free transfers, and will likely serve as backups. Mohamed Kudus’s 40M euro transfer is in the final stages, with personal terms remaining to be negotiated. Assuming the deal doesn’t fall through, Kudus will step into Mac Allister’s attacking midfield role and provide Brighton with the creative spark and attacking threat that they lost when Mac Allister was sold. I predict Brighton to remain a very tough team to beat in the league, but the Europa League will likely cause a drop from last season’s 6th place finish. Similar to Newcastle, the first year back in European football will cause a drop in the league performance this year, but expect to see both teams back to their last season finishing places in 2024/2025.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 8th
9) Chelsea (2022/2023 position: 12th)
Players Out: Kai Havertz, Mason Mount, Kalidou Koulibaly, Mateo Kovacic, Christian Pulisic, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, N’Golo Kante, Cesar Azpilicueta, Ethan Ampadu, Joao Felix (end of loan), Aubameyang.
Players In: Christopher Nkunku, Nicolas Jackson, Axel Disasi, Lesley Ugochukwu, Robert Sanchez, Ângelo, Levi Colwill, Ian Maatsen, Malo Gusto, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Andrey Santos,
Best Possible XI: Kepa, Chillwell, Colwill, Thiago Silva, Reece James, Enzo, Andrey Santos, Mudryk, Nkunku, Madueke, Jackson
So Chelsea are playing a game of Football Manager apparently. It seems like as soon as another young player is highly regarded, Chelsea submit a bid. Florentino Perez may even find some competition scouting the favelas of Brasil for a change. Regardless, the Chelsea rebuild is in full effect. Was it incredibly fortunate for the Blues that the Saudi Pro League’s first summer with buckets of money to spend happened to coincide with several older players needing to be sold, resulting in over 40 million euros brought in for Edouard Mendy and Kalidou Koulibaly, both in their 30’s? Was it also fortunate that this same summer, Arsenal had pressure to spend and ended up paying 75 million euros for Kai Havertz? Absolutely, Chelsea needed these clubs to buy their players to avoid breaching Financial Fair Play rules, and getting what seemed like better than market value bids was a stroke of good fortune. Now we have to look at the facts: Mauricio Pochettino, one of the best managers for developing young talent at a high level, has been given free-reign to build the team of wonderkids from his dreams, and an unlimited budget. From watching Chelsea’s preseason games, I was very impressed with the style of football, as a Spurs fan myself I know Poch well.
I believe that the most crucial player in this Chelsea side is their new striker, Nicolas Jackson. When I first saw him play, my initial thoughts were that he takes after Didier Drogba, and after further investigation found out that both players actually produced the same G+A per 90 over their final seasons before joining Chelsea (cool, right?) Jackson is the definition of clinical, he will not need 10 chances a game, just one or two good ones. Jackson and Mudryk have already shown great link-up chemistry together, and if he stays healthy, we could be looking at Nicolas Jackson in the top 5 for the Premier League Golden Boot this year (obviously proven scorers like Haaland, Kane, or Salah still deserve to be favorites for the award). I have included Chelsea here in 9th because I think a single long-term injury to a key player has the potential to derail their season much more than the clubs around them. Christopher Nkunku has already gone down with a knee injury and will be out for months. An injury to Jackson would really hurt Chelsea’s chances of qualifying for Europe. However, if everyone stays fit, I see Chelsea capable (note: capable, not guaranteed) of finishing as high as 4th.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 9th
10) Crystal Palace (2022/2023 position: 12th)
Players Out: Wilfried Zaha, Luka Milivojevic, Michael Olise*
Players In: Matheus França, Jefferson Lerma, Lewis Hall* (loan)
Best Possible XI: Johnstone, Mitchell, Guehi, Andersen, Ward, Doucouré, Lerma, Eze, França, Olise, Edouard
After 9 years at Selhurst Park, the player that comes to mind first to many when you say “Crystal Palace”, has left the club. Wilfried Zaha helped Palace be regulars in the Premier League and pull off the regular upset over the biggest clubs in the league. Now he’s departed on a free transfer for Galatasaray, but Palace fans still have reason to be optimistic. One of the most exciting transfers in recent history for the club was confirmed recently, Matheus França from Flamengo. The young attacking midfielder slots in the best as a #10, and will stand to forma formidable attacking quartet next season alongside Eberechi Eze, Michael Olise, and Odsonne Edouard. Eze has elevated his game significantly in recent seasons, and earned his first England callup last season. He will slot into Zaha’s position at LW and provide just as much of a threat to opposing defenders. The biggest question mark at Selhurst Park is the future of Michael Olise, who has attracted interest from both Manchester clubs and Chelsea, who are close to triggering his release clause. As a football fan, I don’t want Olise to move to any of these clubs this summer (City: trophies don’t mean much there in terms of legacy, United: this club ruins young talents like it’s their day job, Chelsea: would have 3 other wonderkids in his position). Also, I think this attacking 4, if kept together, would be as good as most of the top-half teams.
In less flashy, but equally helpful additions, Palace have signed Jefferson Lerma from Bournemouth on a free transfer to partner Doucouré in midfield, offsetting the loss of longtime player Luka Milivojevic. Also rumoured to be nearing completion is the loan signing of Lewis Hall from Chelsea, after the young full-back/midfielder signed a new 6 year deal at Stamford Bridge. Hall brings maturity beyond his age to the pitch, and would be a calm presence subbing in at LB or as a defensive midfielder. If the Eagles of Selhurst Park can keep hold of Michael Olise, I believe Palace could well be in for a top-half finish and could well improve following the loss of Zaha.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 10th
11) Brentford (2022/2023 position: 9th)
Players Out: David Raya, Ivan Toney (suspension), Mads Bidstrup, Halil Dervisoglu
Players In: Kevin Schade, Nathan Collins, Mark Flekken
Best Possible XI: Flekken, Collins, Ajer, Mee, Henry, Jensen, Norgaard, Onyeka, Schade, Mbeumo
Last season, Brentford finished 9th with the lowest wage budget in the division. So if the squad seems underwhelming at first with the losses of Raya and Toney, trust that Thomas Frank knows how to get results without the biggest names in the world on his team. Aside from Roya and Toney, the core of last year’s squad is still here, so the replacements in net and up front will determine Brentford’s ceiling this year. Having David Raya refuse repeated contract extensions, and then demand a move led Brentford with little choice but to loan him to Arsenal with an option to buy, and little time to bring in a replacement. They settled on Mark Flekken, the 30 year old Dutch keeper who played last season in the Bundesliga for Freiburg, and received his first caps for the Netherlands. Also joining from Freiburg permanently is Kevin Schade, who spent the first half of last season at Freiburg before being loaned to Brentford in January. Brentford have made the move official, paying a 25 million euro fee to secure the young German’s services. Both players helped SC Freiburg to a 5th place finish last season, above the likes of Leverkusen, Frankfurt, and Wolfsburg. It will be interesting to see how Flekken adapts to the Premier League, and whether his distribution is comparable to David Raya’s.
Overall, the loss of Toney will hurt. Mbeumo, Wissa, and Schade will be heavily relied on to score while Toney is suspended. I can’t see Brentford maintaining the same level of goals scored without Toney, but that overall the squad is good enough to outperform the wage gap once again. Next season might be more realistic to set their sights on European qualification, but expect the Bees to give any team a tough game and take points off the big clubs.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 11th
12) Bournemouth (2022/2023 position: 15th)
Players Out: Jefferson Lerma, Jordan Zemura, Junior Stanislas, Siriki Dembélé
Players In: Hamed Traore, Alex Scott, Milos Kerkez, Justin Kluivert, Max Aarons
Best Possible XI: Neto, Kerkez, Senesi, Zabarnyi, Aarons, Billing, Scott, Traore, Kluivert, Solanke, Ouattara
While Bournemouth had somewhat of a chaotic season last year, with 2 managers sacked, Andoni Iraiola has been trusted to take the team into next season and has had a pretty impressive first transfer window as a Premier League manager. The former Rayo Vallecano manager has brought in the best young player in the Championship last season, Alex Scott, alongside top Hungarian talent Milos Kerkez from AZ at left-back, Justin Kluivert from Roma on the wing, and Max Aarons from Norwich at right-back. Kerkez and Aarons are some of the most promising young talents at fullback and will provide plenty of energy up and down the pitch. Kerkez is the more defensive of the 2, and should tuck in alongside the centrebacks in possession at times. Alex Scott is a much needed boost in the midfield much like Hamed Traore, back from loan. Those two should combine with Phillip Billing as an anchor to form the core of Bournemouth’s midfield next season. Up front, Dango Ouattara and Dominic Solanke return after strong ends to their campaign last season, and will be partnered by Kluivert on the left. These signings are surprising to see Bournemouth secure, but perhaps is an indication of the players being convinced after speaking with the new manager Iraiola. Overall, I’m excited to see what Bournemouth can do this season, and believe they can optimistically look comfortably to mid-table and not have to worry about relegation this year.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 12th
13) Nottingham Forest (2022/2023 position: 16th)
Players Out: Sam Surridge, Jesse Lingard, André Ayew, Renan Lodi
Players In: Anthony Elanga, Chris Wood, Matt Turner, Ola Aina
Best Possible XI: Turner, Aina, Niakhaté, Worrall, Felipe,Williams, Gibbs-White, Danilo, Elanga, Awoniyi, Johnson
Last season, Nottingham Forest consistently exceeded my expectations in getting results. This year, I’ve decided to give them credit where credit is due, and pick them for a mid-table finish. The signings of Anthony Elanga and Chris Wood will help bolster the sometimes inconsistent attack, with Taiwo Awoniyi and Brennen Johnson hoping to improve upon their solid performances last year. Matt Turner is a good signing in net, with plenty of experience from being in the Arsenal squad, as well as starting for the USA national team. Ola Aina brings good experience at fullback, and will compete for a starting position with Serge Aurier and Neco Williams. Steve Cooper’s side have shown to, aside from the odd blowout, give any team a difficult game and can take points off of technically superior sides. It is refreshing to see how few signings there have been this summer vs the insanity of last year’s transfer window, where almost 2 full squad’s worth of players were brought in. This will surely help with consistency and squad morale. I pick Nottingham Forest to have a solid season that might not be the most exciting football, but they will ruin more than a few weekends for the top-half teams.
Players Out: Bobby Thomas, Wout Weghorst (loan), Ashley Barnes
Players In: Zeki Amdouni, James Trafford, Jordan Beyer, Sander Berge, Dara O’Shea, Michael Obafemi, Luca Koleosho, Nathan Redmond, Jacob Bruun Larsen (loan)
Best Possible XI: Trafford, Roberts, O’Shea, Beyer, Vitinho, Zaroury, Berge, Cork, Redmond, Amdouni, Foster
Welcome to the Premier League, Vincent Kompany! Here’s a gift: an opening weekend match against the defending champions, Manchester City. It’ll also be the first time you’ll be on the same competitive pitch as your old club, but this time you’re not part of Team Goliath. You’re David now, and you better have a gameplan.
Alright, I’m done addressing Burnley’s manager, don’t worry. Turf Moor is going to host Premier League football again, after Burnley blew away the Championship last year in Vincent Kompany’s first season. Unlike the other two newly promoted teams, Burnley have had a transfer market that indicates they plan on staying promoted. In come England U21 World Cup winning goalkeeper James Trafford, last year’s best CB Jordan Beyer permanently, promising Irish CB Dara O’Shea, and DM Sander Berge from Sheffield United to bolster the defence. Up front, Michael Obafemi and Zeki Amdouni join this season’s squad as well. Amdouni, a 22 year old Swiss international signed from FC Basel, has averaged a goal every 200 minutes in the Swiss league over 120 games. In the Europa Conference League, that drops to a goal every 120 minutes. Burnley clearly see potential in the young centre-forward and hope that he can lead their line consistently this season.
I believe the signings brought in are better than several Premier League clubs who did not get promoted last year. That combined with Kompany’s vast experience playing and winning in the Premier League should be enough for Burnley to stay up this season. Look for Kompany to play similarly, but not identically, to the system he learned under Pep at City. The game plan he comes up with for a team he knows so well will be very interesting to see, who knows, maybe Pep gets surprised on Gameweek 1?
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 14th
15) West Ham United (2022/2023 position: 14th)
Players Out: Declan Rice, Gianluca Scamacca, Nikola Vlasic, Arthur Masuaku, Manuel Lanzini, Lucas Paqueta*
Players In: Edson Alvarez, James Ward-Prowse, Harry Maguire*
Best Possible XI: Areola, Emerson, Aguerd, Zouma, Coufal, Alvarez, Ward-Prowse, Soucek, Paqueta, Antonio, Bowen
West Ham may stand to make the most profit from player transfers on a per player basis this summer, with Lucas Paqueta rumored to be subject of a 100M+ bid from Manchester City after Declan Rice already departed the Hammers to Arsenal for the same price. What will David Moyes do with that money? So far, it seems he’s going to try and revive Brexit-ball once again. By that I mean, play for set pieces and get some big angry players signed. James Ward-Prowse, Mr. Set-Piece if you will, was brought in from Southampton for a 30 million euro fee. Joining him in midfield is Ajax’s midfield pitbull Edson Alvarez, a fiery player who can cover ground all game long and isn’t afraid to get stuck into a tackle. Rumored to be joining the defence is long-maligned Manchester United ex-captain, Harry Maguire. I honestly believe that a move to West Ham would truly revive Maguire’s confidence and form, allowing him to prolong his international career which might be in danger if he can’t find game time at United.
Before any signings were made, which was just a week before the season began, I was worried about West Ham being in danger of relegation. The additions of Ward-Prowse and Alvarez can help to replace what Declan Rice brought to the team in aggregate. The loss of Paqueta to Manchester City certainly would damage West Ham’s open-play attack and force them to be somewhat predictably reliant on counter-attacking and set-pieces. I believe there will be enough teams who have worse seasons for West Ham not to be in danger of relegation. If they sell Paqueta and any other players without properly replacing them, we might be having a different conversation by mid-season.
Players In: Youssef Chermiti, Arnaut Danjuma (loan), Ashley Young, Andre Gomes (back from loan), Dele (back from loan), Jarrad Branthwaite (end of loan)
Best Possible XI: Pickford, Mykolenko, Tarkowski, Keane, Coleman, Gray, Onana, Doucouré, McNeil, Calvert-Lewin, Danjuma
I would never predict a Sean Dyche team getting relegated, but I find it hard to see Everton doing much better than avoiding relegation this season when looking at the teams I’ve put above them. Youngster Youssef Chermiti joins from Sporting CP for a 12.5 million euro fee, the first transfer fee paid this summer at Goodison Park. This is a likely indication of the club’s precarious financial situation, with the decision to build a new stadium right in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic coming back to bite the Toffees. Do you recall a few years ago when Spurs had a self-imposed transfer ban (yes, you read that correctly) for 2 windows to save money for their new stadium? Let’s just say Everton did not follow suit, and are in the position where they need to stay in the Premier League to financially sustain the club but can hardly afford to spend enough to keep up with the current player market and stay up.
Enter Youssef Chermiti, the imposing (1.92m) centre-forward who will be Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s partner up front this year. As an 18 year old in the Liga Portugal, Chermiti scored 3 goals and added 2 assists in just over 800 minutes of football, while producing 0.54 non-penalty xG per 90. Those are very strong numbers for an 18 year old pllaying in the Portuguese top-flight, but he will require some resilience to succeed at Everton where it might be a challenging season. Fighting against relegation is not something Sporting CP is very used to, so Chermiti’s adaptability will be tested, but I believe he can succeed and help Everton do juuust well enough to finish in 16th again. Just get that stadium done so we don’t have to say this every year please.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 16th
17) Fulham (2022/2023 position: 10th)
Players Out: Paulo Gazzaniga, Shane Duffy, Ivan Cavaleiro, Steven Sessegnon, Manor Solomon, Aleksandar Mitrovic*
Players In: Calvin Bassey, Raul Jiminez, Kevin Mbabu (return from loan)
Best Possible XI: Leno, Robinson, Diop, Bassey, Tete, Palhinha, Cairney, Pereira, Willian, Mitrovic, Wilson
Fulham in the Premier League has in the past years been synonymous with one player, Aleksandar Mitrovic. The Serbian striker has won Fulham more points than seemingly any other player has won for their team single-handedly in the Premier League. When they stay up, he’s the reason why. We could be coming to a cross-roads for Fulham, with Mitrovic seemingly unhappy at the club, requesting a move and remaining interested in Al-Hilal’s offer to play in Saudi Arabia. Whether he plays another game for Fulham is yet to be determined, but assuming he doesn’t, Fulham are in trouble. Vinicius has struggled to come anywhere near Mitrovic’s level of productivity when played, and that leaves them reliant on Harry Wilson and Willian for goals. Both are fine players, but they won’t score 25 goals between them from long shots. If they can’t score, then Fulham will need to be able to defend. Securing the signing of Calvin Bassey from Ajax will go a long ways towards helping out Bernd Leno in goal, who had a remarkably underrated season last year and was a large reason why Fulham finished 10th. That will be Fulham’s identity this year, defensive but lacking finishing in attack. The only reason I haven’t picked them to be relgated this year is that there are simply 3 teams with more abysmal outlooks to their campaigns.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 17th
18) Wolverhampton (2022/2023 position: 13th)
Players Out: Ruben Neves, Nathan Collins, Conor Coady, Raul Jiminez, Ryan Giles, Joao Moutinho, Adama Traoré
Players In: Matheus Cunha, Boubacar Traoré, Matt Doherty, Goncalo Guedes (return from loan), Fabio Silva (return from loan)
Best Possible XI: Sa, Ait-Nouri, Kilman, Dawson, Doherty, Traoré, Lemina, Matheus Nunes, Guedes, Silva, Neto
What is going on at Wolves? The team that shocked the Premier League, finishing 7th in their first two seasons up, have seemingly lost all ambition to the point where relegation is a very real possibility. Manager Julen Lopetegui’s patience finally reached its limit with the Wolves ownership, and he walked away from his role with under a week before the season starts. In the past seasons, Wolves have spent their way to within a perilous margin of the Premier League’s maximum allowable loss for a club over a three year period. Accordingly, the club informed fans that players would need to be sold before any new arrivals could be brought in. Players were indeed sold, totalling over 105 million euros in revenue for Wolves. However, no new faces appear at Molineux. Due to the loan agreement with Atletico Madrid, Wolves were obligated to purchase Matheus Cunha for a whopping 50 million euros, double the player’s market value, according to Transfermakt.com. This after Cunha scored 2 goals after just under 1000 minutes of play at Wolves, being subbed off in 11/12 of his starts. Boubacar Traoré’s loan deal was made permanent from FC Metz for an 11 million euro fee, but as he already spent the latter half of last season playing for the club, this will not seem like a new signing to Wolves fans either. It is very possible that Wolves will not be able to sign any more players before the season starts, leaving them with Matheus Cunha and young Fabio Silva as striker options. Staying up in the Premier League requires a consistent striker, and that’s not to mention the other holes in the squad that need addressing. There, I’m referring to the losses in midfield of Neves and Moutinho, who played nearly every game for Wolves last season; this summer, no new midfielders have joined. The story of Wolves rise to the Premier League, and now possible fall, should be studied as a case of mis-management. A team qualifying for Europe in their first two seasons after getting promoted should not be in danger of both relegation and breaching Financial Fair Play regulations, just a few seasons on. Wolves will very likely go down, and might take a while to come back. Best of luck to them.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 18th
19) Sheffield United (2022/2023 position: 2nd [Championship])
Best Possible XI: Foderingham, Trusty, Ahmedhodzic, Egan, Bogle, Larouci, Souza, Slimane, Traoré, Norwood, McBurnie
Sheffield United are enduring a difficult offseason for a club about to play in the Premier League again. Star players Iliman Ndiaye and Sander Berge were both sold, generating over 30 million euros for the club. So far 25 million euros have been spent, but on players with potential and promise, rather than proven players to replace the ever-consistent Ndiaye and Berge. Shefield United have lost the heart of their team, and it will be interesting tosee how quickly the new signings can fit in. Auston Trusty was brought in from Arsenal, likely to be deployed as a 3rd centre back playing at LB. To help in defensive midfield, Vini Souza was signed from Belgian side Lommel SK. The 24 year old Flamengo youth product will have high expectations, as his 12 million euro fee was the highest paid by Sheffield United this summer. Anis Slimane was brought in from the Danish league, and will likely partner Souza in midfield. Up front, Bénie Traoré was signed from Swedish champions Hacken after a strong year in the Allsvenskan. I could see him lining up at striker, or on the right wing, depending on the formation used.
I believe the Blades definitely have potential to pick up some wins this season, but the bar for avoiding relegation has been raised in recent years, with established Premier League clubs like Everton nearly avoiding going down last season. When I compare Sheffield United’s squad with those of the teams they will be fighting against relegation with, I think it would require a truly incredible season to stay up. When Sander Berge helps Burnley to an away win over Sheffield United, it will be the moment that sums up the campaign for the Blades. Sheffield United are just too close to being in FFP danger to spend tons this summer and potentially be relegated anyways. I don’t want to see Sheffield United go down, but that seems like the most realistic outcome for the year as the club won’t risk their long-term financial future on a spending spree to try and stay up in a year where that is a more difficult task than past.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 19th
20) Luton Town
Players Out: Sonny Bradley, Harry Isted, Carlos Mendes
Players In: Ryan Giles, Tahith Chong, Mads Andersen, Marvelous Nakamba, Thomas Kaminski, Ross Barkley, Issa Kabore (loan), Chiedozie Ogbene
Best Possible XI: Kaminski, Giles, Andersen, Lockyer, Kaboré, Nakamba, Barkley, Chong, Freeman, Ogbene, Adebayo
I’m sorry to any Luton fans that might be reading this, I truly wish I didn’t have to do this. After an unpredicted and shocking rise to the Premier League through the English football pyramid, Luton Town won the Championship playoff and secured their spot in the 2023/2024 Premier League season. This season was never going to be easy, with significant stadium renovations required simply to qualify to play in the Premier League, which has shown in the level of spending ahead of their first season in the top flight. The squad has some bright young prospects in Giles, Kaboré, and Chong, coming from Wolves, Man City, and Manchester United respectively. The free transfer addition of Ross Barkley is also a smart piece of business, however Marvelous Nakamba is their only other signing with proven Premier League experience. This should lead to a difficult season, with Luton finding themselves up against it in the majority of games. The football fan in me wants to see them pull off some upsets, but the realist in me is worried that may be unlikely. Regardless, going back down this year shouldn’t be seen as a failure for Luton, although the lack of spending is understandably frustrating for their fans. The Premier League’s parachute payments allow any relegated club to have a significant financial advantage over other Championship clubs, which should allow Luton to build on their stadium renovations and come back to the Premier League in a season or two, better prepared to stay up.
Predicted Finish in 2023/2024: 20th
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Well, that’s all then! Thanks for making it this far, I hope you found some enjoyment in this article and are a bit more excited for the upcoming season. Be sure to leave a comment with any thoughts, and check back in soon for the next article, I’ve got a big project to share soon!
Hello again, and welcome back for a very exciting day for Spurs fans, possibly the only exciting day they’ve had this season apart from the day Manchester City ensured their North London rivals would not win the title. It has been a rough few seasons in the white half of North London: the big-name manager appointments of Jose Mourinho and Antonio Conte have failed with fireworks. Each manager grew increasingly frustrated with the club failing to meet their demands in terms of player recruitment, and both were sacked in dramatic fashion – Mourinho days before what could have been Tottenham’s first trophy since 2008 in the League Cup final, and Conte hours after delivering a a press conference filled with criticisms and frustrations of managing Spurs, effectively forcing his own departure.
It makes complete sense though.
To not be mistaken by the reader, both Mourinho and Conte are two of the game’s best ever managers, and their history of accomplishments cannot be denied. However, they were never the right fit for Tottenham, and the signs of discontent were evident long before each manager’s eventual departure. Daniel Levy has been the chairman of the club for almost the entire Premier League era, taking the role in 2001 when ENIC purchased Tottenham. Since his arrival, Spurs have created a club identity around attacking, entertaining football. The transfer profile of the club has been to purchase younger players with potential to develop and then be sold on at a healthy profit to sustain the club’s operations. This has been effective for Spurs, albeit obviously not in the trophies department (Let’s get all the trophy jokes out now so we can discuss the less amusing but more relevant details). Despite never winning the Premier League, or other major silverware recently, this approach by Tottenham has led to increased fan support and financial stability.
In an era where it no longer feels uncommon to hear about some of the biggest clubs in world football having severe financial issues, Spurs have stayed clear of any danger without the unlimited budget that comes with a club owned by an entire country with massive oil reserves. Did Spurs become the first team in history to have a self-imposed transfer ban for 2 consecutive transfer windows? Yes they did, and I shared the frustration of all the fans during that time period. The lack of spending helped Spurs complete the construction of their new stadium, which provides a massive boost to revenue compared to the old White Hart Lane. Once the stadium was completed, the plan was to start spending with more ambition. This was the right idea, but as we have seen through the Mourinho and Conte eras, the right manager for the project was not chosen.
Both managers prefer older, more established players, and play a strict defense-first style. These two preferences directly contrasted with the club identity and culture that Spurs had worked to build over the past 15+ years. High potential young players were not trusted enough to be given game time, and the overall age of the squad increased. Under Pochettino, Spurs regularly lined up with a starting XI who were on average, younger than 25 years old. Meanwhile, Antonio Conte’s most recent edition of Tottenham had the oldest average age of starting XI players (29.6 years) since Glenn Hoddle managed the team in the early 2000’s. The abandonment of “The Tottenham Method”, if you will, resulted in a significant portion of the fanbase losing all trust with upper management, and calling for Daniel Levy’s exit. Gone was the exciting, free-flowing attacking football that entertained fans, win, lose, or draw. Instead, Spurs fans sat through 3 years of boring, pragmatic, defensive football.
“When you’re winning, nobody cares how you play” – A smart man, probably
That’s the thing about defensive football, it’s only tolerable to the fans for so long after the results stop coming. Now, that’s enough about how we’ve gotten to this point, time to talk about the main point of the article: Ange Postecoglu is taking over as the next Spurs manager. This is exactly what Spurs need. Here’s why:
Postecoglu has made his career playing attacking, high-pressing football. An early mentor in his career was his coach in Australia, Ferenc Puskas, who imparted his philosophy of playing a beautiful attacking game over a more pragmatic one to Postecoglu, who acted as a translator for Puskas upon his arrival in Australia (Puskas spoke little English but was fluent in Greek, which Postecoglu also spoke). He believes in this philosophy, and will not abandon his approach due to a bad run of results. A favorite quote of mine from Ange sums it up perfectly: “The way I see it is this: if you are a vegetarian, you’re not just going to pop into a Macca’s (McDonald’s) because you’re hungry!”
Naturally suiting his brand of football, Postecoglu has no qualms about playing young players, seeing the energy and potential they bring to the game rather than their lack of experience.
His teams are families. Any interview of one of Ange’s former players shows nothing but good signs. He knows when to be a disciplinarian and knows when to be a father figure. A change in mentality around the locker room is exactly what Spurs need after 3 years of failure.
He has never managed a top club at the level of the Premier League. Confused as to why this is a positive? Postecoglu will have a level of motivation that is hard to match once you’ve won everything there is to win in club football. Additionally, he comes across as a very selfless individual. In his interview following Celtic’s completion of their treble, Postecoglu was filled with nothing but praise for his team, accrediting all their success to his players, seemingly uninterested in discussing his own personal contributions. This lack of reputation and ego will likely result in much less frustration and clashes with the management of Spurs. The club will feel less of a need to change their entire identity, and rather have Postecoglu integrated into the Spurs Process.
Before arriving in North London, Ange Postecoglu has managed, and won titles, with the Brisbane Roar of the A-League, the Australian national team, the Yokohama Marinos in the J-League, and finally with Celtic in Scotland. These teams have received some high praise: his Brisbane side are often affectionately referred to as Roarcelona (a compliment to the Catalonians), and the former coach of the alluded-to Barcelona side, Pep Guardiola, heaped praise on Postecoglu’s Yokohama Marinos side (who are interestingly enough also owned by the City Football Group). Most recently, he became one of just a handful of managers to have won the treble with Celtic. The man wins wherever he goes.
How might Spurs line up under Postecoglu?
Ange Postecoglu likes to use a 4-3-3 shape in his teams.
Out of possession, the wingers often stay high up on the pitch, and do much less tracking back than in other systems. They will often stay in line with the striker, acting as an outlet for a quick counter if the ball is won back. Their role is very much single-minded, focused on creating offensive chances. In possession, Postecoglu instructs his wingers to stretch the pitch wide and stay near the touchline, operating in more space with which to beat a defender and get the ball into more central areas. The fullbacks generally tuck into the midfield in buildup, with one playing as a more traditional inverted fullback, and the other operating more in the wide areas of the pitch, but not making many overlapping runs. This forms the 2-3-5 buildup shape that we see many possession-based, high-pressing sides use. With the fullbacks more inverted, this opens up space for the two CM’s to make forward runs into the half-spaces, which is where Postecoglu wants the ball to end up in the final third. Now here is where Ange might need to tweak his approach to fit the current Spurs squad. Assuming there isn’t an entire overhaul of the midfield and fullback positions, the players in the Tottenham squad at CM and FB do not often play the roles they would under Postecoglu. Players like Pedro Porro and Destiny Udogie prefer to be influencing the final third more often, using the width of the pitch. To make matters more complicated, Tottenham’s midfielders all fall more into the holding midfield or box-to-box role than a playmaker. So the question I will attempt to answer is: How can Ange Postecoglu best recreate his offensive build-up shape with the current Spurs team?
In this lineup, I attempted to emulate Postecoglu’s Celtic lineup. Here, Ben Davies is playing as the inverted LB, and Pedro Porro is operating as the wider, inverted RB. Naturally, the CM on the right side will be dropping slightly deeper in buildup to account for Porro’s offensive contribution, and the RW Kulusevski can move inside to the half-spaces, allowing Porro to overlap down the flank. Runs behind the defense from Porro will certainly be a target for switches from the left flank. Alternatively, the fullback combination of Destiny Udogie and Emerson Royal could be used, with Emerson filling the more inverted fullback role, and Udogie given more freedom to make forward runs. This would flip the formation I’ve lined up, and result in the more attacking CM moving over to the right side of the pitch.
Generally, the striker in a Postecoglu team plays right on the last line of defense, moving into the channels to find space and support build-up, while looking for his opportunity to make a run behind the defense. This is different from the role Harry Kane usually occupies, as he likes to drop deeper to create from midfield, often finding a winger making an inverted run. If Kane stays at Spurs next season, Postecoglu will have to make a decision on whether he asks Kane to play a different role than he is used to, or whether he will change his system to adapt to Kane. If Kane leaves North London, Richarlison fits the mold of a Postecoglu #9 much better.
I’ve mentioned that Tottenham’s central midfielders are hard-working solid players, but they lack creativity. Giovani Lo Celso, who I think is the most needed in the team from the players out on loan, fits the #10 role the best, but I would expect Postecoglu to address that deficiency in the transfer market if he wants to play his style without making any changes. Another way that Spurs could form the 2-3-5 buildup shape in a slightly different manner is from a 4-4-2 defensive shape. We saw Ryan Mason use a 4-4-2 out of possession shape in his time managing the club this season to good effect. The benefits of this are that the 4-4-2 takes advantage of Tottenham’s squad strength, allowing an extra wide player on the pitch instead of a third midfielder. Porro can play RM with Emerson at RB, or Udogie can play LM with Davies at LB. Son and Richarlison can be played both in the wide roles or as a striker. My favorite part about this shape for Spurs is that it allows Kane to effectively function as the team’s creative midfielder in build-up, something he is so good at doing. As Davies inverts, the midfield duo of Bissouma and Hojbjerg/Sarr will slide over, creating the 2-3 base of the buildup shape. This lets both Porro and Udogie drive forward into wide areas, Kulusevski and Son occupy the half-spaces, and Kane can play centrally, dropping deep if he wants to with plenty of passing options. I’ve shown the shift from the 4-4-2 starting shape into the 2-3-5 buildup shape below.
I believe that if Postecoglu wants to play his style of attacking football, he could achieve that without any transfers by lining the team up in such a fashion. To truly make Ange-ball successful, Spurs should look to bring in a left-sided CB, an inverted fullback, and a creative attacking midfielder, along with a new keeper capable of playing the modern sweeper role effectively.
In conclusion, Ange Postecoglu brings a strong mindset, an unyielding self-belief, an electric brand of attacking football, and reason for Spurs fans to be optimistic once again. He has turned every team he has managed into a family of winners, and now he takes on his toughest test yet: bringing silverware to Tottenham. If he is given patience and time (looking at you Mr. Levy), Spurs will soon find themselves back up fighting for Champions League qualification and entertaining their fans with beautiful football.
Keep an eye on the summer transfers and the start of next season! Spurs will bring a much different look than in recent history, and look to be on the right course. Thanks for reading!
Hello football fans, I hope you’re all having a solid morning and are ready for another weekend of English Premier League action! While the title race came to a head at the Etihad with Manchester City’s 4-1 win over Arsenal, there is still much more left undecided with only 4 games to play. Today, I’ll be looking at a few of the more interesting stories as the season comes to a close. Before we get into it, here’s the current league table for reference as we go.
Are Brighton going to Europe?
One word answer? Yes. The seagulls from the south coast have had a remarkable season under Graham Potter and Roberto de Zerbi, and now look to be locking themselves into the Europa League places (5th and 6th). Winning their 2 games in hand over Liverpool would see Brighton move level with the Reds on points, and likely ahead on Goal Differential into 5th place. Behind Brighton are Spurs, Aston Villa, and Brentford. Brighton also have 2 games in hand over all of these teams, and currently sit higher on points, meaning finishing ahead of the clubs currently in 7th or lower is entirely in Brighton’s control. Finishing in the Top 4 is still possible for the Seagulls, but would require overcoming a 6 point deficit to Manchester United, provided Brighton win their game in hand.
A major collapse from Manchester United or Newcastle with 4 games to play could open the door for one of Liverpool or Brighton, or both(?) to sneak into the Top 4. However, Brighton recently won all 3 points hosting Man U off of Alexis Mac Allister’s last minute penalty, and this could be a knock to United’s confidence. I believe with the way de Zerbi’s team has played this season, I cannot see them finishing any lower than 6th. Tottenham are an uninspiring outfit at the moment, and Villa have already overachieved to be in 8th at this point of the year.
So, what stops Brighton from qualifying to Europe?
Not to leave you under the impression that nothing could go wrong, Brighton’s remaining schedule has some difficult fixtures: Everton (H), Arsenal (A), Newcastle (A), Southampton (H), Man City (H), Aston Villa (A). That’s 3 Top 4 clubs, and their rivals for European qualification Aston Villa. To make things worse, only Manchester City is a home game for Brighton. Expecting them to pick up 6 points against relegation candidates Everton and Southampton (although Southampton are a bit more than a candidate at this point), the biggest fixtures will be Newcastle (A), and Aston Villa (A) on the final day of the season. My prediction is that wins against both Newcastle and Villa will result in Brighton finishing Top 5. If they can also somehow manage to steal 3-4 points from the Arsenal and City fixtures, they will finish the season on 70/71 points, which would put pressure on Man United to match, who would need 7/8 points from their final 5 matches to finish ahead of Brighton.
Ok, wrap it up already. I’ve never watched a Brighton game in my life, move on to the Big 6.
In conclusion, if you haven’t been watching Brighton play this season, you’ve made mistakes. Possibly the most exciting team in the Premier League, only 4 games stand between the seagulls and finishing out their best ever season in club history. For a club that only got promoted to the Premier League for the first time in 2018, going to European competition is pretty darn impressive.
2. Mason at the Wheel?
Let’s face it: Tottenham’s season has not gone according to plan. This was supposed to be the year Antonio Conte took the next step forward from the Top 4 finish he engineered at the end of last season, to push Spurs closer to the top of the table. This did not happen. Spurs tactics under Conte this season were inflexible and uninspiring, his 5-2-3 being oh-so constant through his departure following the 3-3 Southampton draw. In many press conferences, Conte gave off the impression that he was not doing anything wrong, and that it was the players and club who were letting him down. This closed-mindedness from Conte and unwillingness to deviate from his original plan was the main reason for his failure at Tottenham. It takes a different type of manager to succeed at Spurs than one to succeed at Chelsea, as Daniel Levy could not be more different from free-spending counterparts Roman Abramovich and Todd Boehly. Conte made several mistakes in the transfer market this season as well, which Spurs will feel the effect of for another few years. Bringing in Ivan Perisic, planning for him to start the majority of the season at LWB, at age 34, after having spent most of his playing career playing LW (not defending), was abysmal. Perisic shouldn’t have been more than a squad player to provide cover at LW and LWB, and to mentor the younger players on the squad. Ryan Sessegnon was only given 6 starts all season, and following a hamstring injury picked up in February, he has not been back in the squad. Conte’s tendency to prefer older, more experienced players also hurt Spurs this season, with exciting young midfielder Pape Sarr barely seeing the field, Djed Spence being ousted from the squad and sent out on loan, and after telling the press he would have a place in the squad for the rest of the season, Conte sent Bryan Gil away on loan as well. All of this is to say, Antonio Conte is a great football manager, but he was absolutely not the right person for the Spurs job.
So who is?
Maybe, just maybe, it’s Ryan Mason. For those of you that don’t know, Ryan Mason is a former Spurs player who’s career was tragically cut short due to a skull injury sustained in a match while playing for Hull City. Originally a Spurs academy graduate, Mason debuted for the first team in 2008 (the last year Spurs won a trophy), after scoring 29 in 31 matches for Spurs academy in the Premier Academy League. After several loan spells, he broke into the first team in 2014 and spent 2 years in the first team before moving to Hull City for a then club record 13 million pounds. On the 22nd of January 2017, Ryan Mason played his last professional match as a footballer, retiring from professional football following medical advice.
Following his playing career, Mason rejoined Tottenham as a member of the coaching staff in 2018, was appointed official academy coach for the 2019 UEFA Youth League, and went on to be Spurs’ head of U-17 to U-23 player development in 2020. This is a manager who’s learned and worked his way up through the ranks, and who received his first appointment as interim first team manager following the departure of José Mourinho in 2021, making him the youngest ever Premier League manager at age 29. Now that you know how he got here, let’s talk about why he might be the perfect fit for Spurs.
He’s one of their own. Tottenham love an academy graduate, and even more so love telling the world that a player was once part of the Spurs academy. Imagine appointing a former academy player as head coach? The club’s philosophy would be consistent from the top down, and you would have a manager who understands Tottenham Hotspur, the club, better than any past managers. This is extremely important in my opinion. The biggest reasons why Mourinho and Conte couldn’t succeed at Tottenham is due to differences with the ownership group, and Daniel Levy. Both of these managers most recent EPL experience was at Chelsea, and both won titles at Chelsea. Arriving at Tottenham only to find out that you can’t create the starting XI of your dreams due to self-imposed transfer restrictions might cause a bit of a disagreement. One of Ryan Mason’s best strengths would be that it’s unlikely he would expect Spurs to act like anyone else besides Spurs, the club he’s known since he was a child. This would almost certainly eliminate the chance of him leaving the club in the same way Mourinho and Conte did (in chaos).
Not a Bus Driver. After consecutive defense-first managers, Spurs fans are crying out for some offensive creativity. Heung-min Son has been a shadow of himself for large portions of the season under Conte, as Conte insisted that Son take most of his touches centrally with back-to-goal in hold-up play, while the LWB makes the run behind the defense. Son scored a large chunk of his Golden Boot-winning tally last season off of fast runs behind the defence where he could be picked out by Harry Kane or Kulusevski with a pass. This season, it’s not even that he isn’t able to perform this as well, it’s that Conte actively tried coaching this out of his game, wanting him to play more like an Italian centre-forward than the Inverted Winger/Inside Forward role Son thrives in. While just one player as an example, it is indicative of Spurs season as a whole. After just two games of all Conte influence gone (after Stellini left), Ryan Mason’s Tottenham have scored 5 goals against Manchester United and Liverpool (and deserved at least a point at Anfield). Additionally, Son has scored in both games off his trademark runs behind the defence, running to celebrate with Mason in likely appreciation of the tactical change.
Low-ego, open-minded thinker. Mason has shown an open-mind, which I believe is paramount to designing and adjusting a tactic. Instead of there being set ideas for what each player must do in the game, Mason has shown that he is more open to making changes to find the right formula. In a recent press conference he commented on Harry Kane dropping deeper in buildup, something Spurs fans have seen him do very very well in the past, but something that was absent under Conte, who wanted Kane to stay as far forward as possible in his system. Under Mason, the players look to have rediscovered some of their freedom and creativity, which is a welcome sight to any Spurs fan.
Today’s match against Crystal Palace will be the best test yet for if Ryan Mason is suited for the full-time manager role next season. 2-2 vs. Man United and the 3-4 loss to Liverpool were both decent results, great results to some fans given the way the season’s gone, but now there is the first game Spurs will be looking at as a “Should-Win”. With the heaviest criticism of Spurs style of play in recent years being an overreliance on counter-attacking football, seeing what Mason chooses to do vs. Crystal Palace will be very telling as to what his overall approach to managing a full season would be. You’ll always have to play the Big 6, but you’ll also always have to play the bottom half of the table, and to compete for the top places, you need to win those games.
To conclude, Ryan Mason is the breath of fresh air that Tottenham Hotspur so desperately needed after what seemed like a bad break-up with Antonio Conte. Whether he will remain as manager longer than just a breath of fresh air will be determined by his approach in the final 4 games of the season. As a human being, he is the perfect person for Spurs. The biggest criticism will be his inexperience, which will only become less of a flaw over time. I’d like to see Daniel Levy give Mason a proper look if he can lead Spurs to a strong finish to the season.
(Note: Lineups for the Tottenham vs. Crystal Palace game just released, and Mason’s going with Emerson at LWB instead of Perisic for defence. This is great, should allow Son to play with freedom down the left today. Will be interesting to see how Richarlison and Porro link up on the right.)
Hello again! First of all I want to thank all the various readers from all around the world who have taken the time to read my work. If there are any specific stories or topics that you would be interested in, feel free to leave a comment! There is no area of football too isolated or niche for me to be interested in. Now, let’s get into today’s article on the final weeks of the English Premier League.
Matchweek 29Table:
To start, I’ve split up the table into two parts, to discuss clubs with similar aspirations and worries together. First up, our clubs who still have a shot at the European qualification spots.
League Table Part 1: We’re Going to Europe?
Before looking at any of these clubs, I thought it might be useful to remind ourselves of the UEFA qualification places in the EPL. The top 4 teams qualify for the UEFA Champions League. The 5th place team, as well as the winner of the FA Cup, qualify for the UEFA Europa League. If the FA cup winner finishes in the top 5, then their UEL qualification place goes to the highest finishing club without European qualification. The final spot, in the UEFA Conference League, is awarded to the team that wins the League Cup. Similarly to the UEL, if the League Cup winners finish in the top 5, the UECL qualification spot is awarded to the next highest finishing team without European qualification. So that being said, let’s look at the teams still with a chance to win the FA and League Cups in the top positions.
TheFA Cup:
The Semi-finals of the FA cup are set, with Manchester City facing off against Sheffield United of the Championship, while upstart Brighton and Hove Albion play Manchester United for the other spot at Wembley. Unless Sheffield United pull off a miraculous victory, I believe the winner of the FA cup is very likely to finish in a Top 6 place in the Premier League, with Brighton looking more and more deserving of that place every week. This being considered, we should reasonably expect the teams that finish 5th and 6th this season to gain Europa League Qualification.
The EFL League Cup:
The League Cup winners have already been confirmed as Manchester United! Assuming they will finish in a Top 6 place, this will mean that the UEFA Conference League qualification spot will go to the team finishing 7th in the Premier League this season. With all this in mind, let’s discuss the possible candidates.
The UEFA Champions League:
There is still a lot of change that can happen in the Top 4 places throughout the rest of the season. The two likely locks are Arsenal and Manchester City, who hold 22 and 14 point leads over 4th place. Only a colossal collapse would see either of these squads fail to qualify for the Champions League, and in terms of the title-race, Arsenal have shown that it is their trophy to bottle. Look forward to the match at the Etihad vs. City that might decide this season’s winner for good. The real intrigue is in the final two UCL spots. After their victory over Ten Hag’s Red Devils, Newcastle have tied United on points, and are ahead on goal differential in 3rd place. After seeing off Antonio Conte, Spurs are 1 point behind Newcastle and Manchester United, provided having played one more game. The remainder of the season will show if Conte was the problem at Tottenham, if Spurs can finish strong to claim a Top 4 place. However, they are likely the greatest uncertainty in the UCL race, with both teams on their heels, Brighton and Brentford, showing much more consistent form over the season. Brighton has 2 games in hand, and can pass Spurs on goal differential for 5th place by winning both games. An extremely strong finish to the season for either Brentford or Liverpool could see them snag the 4th spot, but their future is more in the hands of the teams above them than in their own control. I do not think there is a significant enough chance of any teams below Liverpool to challenge for the UCL places this season to discuss.
The UEFA Europa League:
As we noticed earlier, the UEL qualification spots will likely go to the 5th and 6th place teams. At this stage of the season, the teams most likely to finish in these places are: Manchester United, Spurs, Brighton, or Liverpool. If you’ve noticed I haven’t included Newcastle here, this is because I believe their remaining schedule for the season is the least congested, with only Premier League games to play. Spurs are also out of all cup competitions, but have not looked as functional as Eddie Howe’s men this year. Manchester United are still in the Europa League and the FA Cup, have struggled in the Premier League recently, and I could see them dropping points in the league around the European fixtures vs. Sevilla. One of the four teams I’ve mentioned will finish in the Top 4, so you could say these are my choices to finish in places 4th through 7th.
The UEFA Conference League:
The Premier League representative in the Europa Conference League will be the 7th placed team in the Premier League, provided Manchester United finish no lower than 7th (as League Cup winners). I do not think United will fall to 7th, so I believe we should be looking at Brentford and Liverpool for this spot. Liverpool’s recent resurgence give reason for optimism, but the work done by Thomas Frank at Brentford cannot be ignored, and there is every chance Brentford could be in Europe next season. If Aston Villa, Fulham, or Chelsea are to qualify to Europe after the way their seasons have gone, that will be quite the achievement. Chelsea have not named their (possibly interim) replacement for the recently-sacked Graham Potter, but who knows, maybe they can work some magic?
The League Table Part 2: Let’s Not Get Relegated Lads
I’ve separated the table here, as Chelsea on 38 points, with the squad they have, SHOULD have no chance at relegation. Crystal Palace on the other hand, are sitting just 4 points clear of the relegation zone, with an extra game played over the teams on the verge. Add in yet another sacked manager in Patrick Viera, and Crystal Palace are a large unknown. We could see a resurgence into the top half of the table, or a further collapse into a true relegation battle. Unsurprisingly, Palace are not the only team in this part of the table who have sacked their manager this season. In fact, only West Ham and Nottingham Forest of the remaining teams have not sacked a manager this season. I think both of these squads have shown enough to make me relatively confident (as confident as can be this season) that they will not be relegated. Gary O’Neil has done enough at Bournemouth following Scott Parker’s dismissal to earn a full-time contract, and with a 2-1 win over Fulham on the weekend, the Cherries should be looking away from the relegation zone come the end of the season. The teams I am most worried for are the ones who haven’t shown much promise, or ability to pick up points, against their fellow bottom-table teams. Sean Dyche should be the stabilizing presence Everton need to stay up this year, his debut win over Arsenal inspiring some belief in a club much in need of it this season.
Top 5 Picks for Relegation:
Southampton: this is no hot take, the Saints have caused their fans to lose faith this year, with multiple managers being sacked, and utterly uninspiring displays every week. (Only a depressed Spurs team could give them a point)
Leicester City: This makes me sad to write, as I’ve always been a fan of Leicester constantly pushing the “Big 6” year after year, and giving us possibly the best underdog story in sports history. This season, the Foxes have lost their bite, and have recently dismissed long-standing manager Brendan Rogers. The story is set for the new manager to save Leicester from relegation and start a new legend at the club, but only time will tell. Optimism is great, but points on the table are better.
Leeds United: Firing Jesse Marsch immediately after backing him in the transfer market and bringing in US international Weston McKinnie seemed… impulsive. Especially when Leeds were clearly underperforming their expected attacking output most games, and Patrick Bamford having been sidelined for large portions of the season. The appointment of Javi Gracia was slightly unexpected, and the Spaniard will have his work cut out for him to keep Leeds in the Premier League this season.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: Wait, buying as many Portuguese players as possible doesn’t automatically win titles? Someone tell Wolves please. Jokes aside, bringing in Julen Lopetegui was a rational decision, and I believe he’s shown enough promise to keep the Molineux side up, but a run of bad results could prove fatal to Wolverhampton’s aspirations of remaining a top-flight club.
Crystal Palace: Like with Leicester, it would be hard to imagine the Premier League without Crystal Palace, who have been a mainstay since the 2013/14 season. Viera’s high intensity pressing style got decent results early on in the season, but following the world cup break, the intensity out of possession never returned to the early-season levels. Following Viera’s departure, Palace are a team lacking an identity, which can be a disastrous flaw to have when fighting for survival in the Premier League. I believe the top 3 teams on this list are much more likely to be relegated than the final 2 options, but as this season has shown us, the Premier League is as unpredictable as ever (and no manager’s job is safe).
That’ll be all for today, if you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading! I hope you found something interesting here, and be sure to check back in for more articles coming soon!
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