Well, the vocal haters of the new Champions League format are nowhere to be seen as we are now on the final day of matches in the League Phase. Here’s the current table:
Now I understand the table is a little overwhelming at first glance, so here’s a reminder on what everything means.
Teams that finish in Positions #1-8 on the league table automatically advance to the Round of 16. This leaves 8 spots in the Round of 16 to be filled. Teams that finish in Positions #9-24 on the league table will advance to the Knockout Playoff Round, where teams from positions #9-16 will be considered “seeded”, and teams #17-24 will be considered “unseeded”. The Knockout Playoff Round draws one seeded team against one unseeded team, with the winner advancing to the Round of 16.
So, on the final day, how many teams still have a chance at the automatic Round of 16 berth through a Top 8 finish? You might be surprised to hear the answer is 20 teams. Even Club Brugge, who are sitting in 20th place, could still finish in the Top 8 with a big win over Man City (don’t worry, we’ll get to them later).
Only two teams have secured a Top 8 finish before the final day, Liverpool and Barcelona. Compare this to the old Champions League format, where after 3/4 games, top teams in their groups would have already secured qualification, making the rest of the group stage matches relatively meaningless. Both Liverpool and Barcelona have won 6+ of their 7 matches, with Liverpool having maximum points so far. So perhaps these two teams have earned a “day off” on the final matchday, which feels much more balanced than the old format.
Arsenal and Inter Milan need just a point today to secure a Top 8 finish, although depending on results elsewhere, they could each still finish in the Top 8 with a loss today. Atletico Madrid and AC Milan both are favorites to secure their automatic Round of 16 berths today when they face RB Salzburg and Dinamo Zagreb, respectively. The real fight will be for the final two spots in the Top 8. Three points separate 7th place Atalanta from 20th place Club Brugge. It is almost certain that the final Top 8 spots will be determined by goal differential (or if in the case of a tie in GD, by most goals scored).
Twenty-five of the thirty six teams in the UCL league phase still have something to play for today. Aside from our two table-leaders, the other clubs who’s fate has already been sealed are Bologna, Sparta Praha, RB Leipzig (who had a truly embarassing campaign by their standards), Girona, Crvena Zvezda, SK Sturm Graz, RB Salzburg (not a good year for RB, I guess), Slovan Bratislava, and BSC Young Boys. These teams will have a final matchday to show what they can do at the highest level, so don’t discount the motivation that might come with a last opportunity to impress. Playing well in the UCL can get you a transfer to a top league in Europe very quickly, and every one of these players know this. Overall, I think the new league phase format has been a success, and it should continue for the future.
So let me point out a few fixtures today that I think will be particularly interesting, given the stakes on hand. First of all, is Brest vs. Real Madrid. Brest surprised the world with their shock qualification to the UCL last season, and have continued to impress! They sit 13th in the table, as one of six clubs with 13 points. Both Real and Brest could make the Top 8 with a win today, and with Madrid travelling to France for the match, I think this one could turn out to be quite the scene.
My second pick for the biggest matches today is when 11th place Feyenoord go to 12th place Lille, with both clubs feeling like they will have a strong chance to advance straight to the Round of 16 with a win today. Jonathan David has been on form for Lille so far in Europe, and is one of the biggest threats from the penalty spot in the competition. Feyenoord’s defence, led by captain David Hancko, will look to stifle the Canadian striker, hoping his CONCACAF counterpart Santi Giminez will be the #9 leaving with the goals.
My final pick for what could be match of the day, is Manchester City hosting Club Brugge. This is a must win game for both sides, especially on City’s end. Club Brugge could still qualify for the Knockout Playoff Round with a loss today, but City know that their competition is over if they fail to pick up 3 points today at the Etihad. For this game to be exciting, Brugge will have to come out with energy, and hopefully score first. Otherwise, Pep might just lull us all to sleep.
Honorable Mention: Stuttgart vs PSG. Seb Hoeness leads his Stuttgart side up against the wealth of Paris Saint-Germain, while very little separates the sides on the UCL table. Both clubs have 10 points through 7 matches, and know they very well might need to win today to advance.
Enjoy the matches today!
-LM
futbird 