Hello football fans, today I’m going to be taking a look at the 4 UEFA Champions League quarterfinals, how each team got to this stage of the competition, and what their chances to win it all might look like. Let’s get right into it.

Quarterfinal 1: Arsenal (#3) vs Real Madrid (#11)

Going into the first quarterfinal, drawn between Arsenal and Real Madrid, Arsenal are technically the favorites, looking at the results of the League Phase. The Gunners finished 3rd in the new format League Phase, earning them a bye to the Round of 16. Arsenal did not have the most difficult set of League Phase fixtures, playing only two other strong contenders for the trophy in PSG and Inter Milan. They managed to secure a 2-0 home victory over PSG, while losing 1-0 away to Inter. In the Round of 16, PSV did not pose much of a threat. Arsenal swept them away 7-1 in Eindhoven, before a 2-2 draw at the Emirates was enough to see the Gunners through.

In the other corner, annual UCL favorites and record 15-time winners of the competition, Real Madrid. Ancelotti’s men did not have the smoothest League Phase campaign in the UCL this year, losing to Liverpool, Milan, and Lille. This led to Real having to go through the knockout playoff round to reach the Round of 16, where they played fellow underperforming favorites Manchester City. The first leg at the Etihad was always going to be where this fixture’s story was decided, and after being down 2-1 to the Cityzens in the 80th minute, Real Madrid went back to Spain with a 3-2 victory after two late goals by Brahim Diaz and Jude Bellingham. They would complete their dispatch of Man City with a 3-1 victory at the Bernabeu.

Madrid will be most fans choice to move on here, but this fixture will still present some interesting matchups. Stylistically, you have Ancelotti’s “Laissez-Faire” approach to his man management, and Real Madrid’s often lopsided attack consisting of 3 left wingers, up against Mikel Arteta’s uber-structured style designed to limit chances against teams like Madrid. French international William Saliba will be tasked with keeping his compatriot, Kylian Mbappe, quiet in the tie. Also keep an eye out for the battle between Madrid’s highly skilled wingers, and Arsenal’s defensive minded fullbacks. It is entirely likely that we see Arsenal set up with four centre-halves, with Calafiori and Ben White playing as fullbacks. Arsenal will know that they cannot compete in a straight shootout with Madrid, and will likely look to limit as many chances as possible, while hoping to convert what they are able to produce. If Arsenal can get past Madrid, they will have gained invaluable experience and will likely have a new confidence in Europe that was missing before.

Prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Madrid, Madrid 2-0 Arsenal, Aggregate: Madrid 3 – 1 Arsenal.

Quarterfinal 2: Paris Saint-Germain (#15) vs Aston Villa (#8)

This matchup will be a neutral’s dream to watch. Both clubs out to prove something in Europe, in fine form, and not afraid to run up the scoreline. While PSG had some struggles in the League Phase, losing to Bayern, Atletico Madrid, and Arsenal en route to a 15th place finish and a path through the knockout playoff round. In this round, PSG were matched up against fellow Ligue 1 side, Brest. Brest had done incredibly well to make it to this stage, in what was their first ever European competition qualification, and ended up offering not much more than a huge confidence boost to PSG, who won the two leg tie 10-0 on aggregate. Ousmane Dembele is in the form of his life, and despite an Alisson masterclass leading to a Harvey Elliott snatch-and-grab winner at the Parc des Princes, the two-footed Frenchman was electric in both legs (no pun intended, I promise). A Liverpool defensive mishap early in the 2nd leg gave Dembélé the chance to tie the aggregate score at 1, before Gianluigi Donnarumma dominated the penalty shootout to take PSG into the quarterfinals.

Their opponents, Aston Villa, are back in the Champions League for the first time in a long time, and came out with a bang. Beating Bayern Munich 1-0 early in the League Phase gave the villains a boost, which helped them to the 8th and final automatic Round of 16 berth. There, they faced Club Brugge, who were dispatched 6-1 on aggregate. The January loan signings of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio have paid off early for Unai Emery, and Villa will provide a potent threat to the PSG defence. I do really like how this Villa team is playing, but after what I saw out of PSG last round, I find it hard to see any other winner if Paris play anything like they did against Liverpool.

Prediction: Villa 3-2 PSG, PSG 3-1 Villa, Aggregate: PSG 5-4 Villa.

Quarterfinal 3: Barcelona (#2) vs Dortmund (#10)

In the next quarterfinal, we have Hansi Flick’s Barcelona going up against Niko Kovac’s Borussia Dortmund. The Catalonians narrowly missed out on the top spot in the League Phase, losing once to Monaco, and drawing with Atalanta. They earned an automatic Round of 16 place, sweeping away Benfica 4-1 on aggregate to book their place in the Quarterfinals. There are some potential key injuries that could affect Barcelona in this tie, but we are too far out to know for sure yet. If healthy, Barcelona are well equipped to make a run to the final.

Their opponents, Dortmund, have had a slightly tumultuous season to-date. Last year’s UCL finalists, Dortmund started the season without the manager that took them to that final, Edin Terzic, who stepped down from his role after the season. Nuri Sahin took over to start the year, but poor results led to him being sacked and replaced by Niko Kovac. They still managed a respectable 10th place finish in the League Phase, and were never in danger of missing qualification to the knockouts. In the Knockout Playoff Round, Dortmund faced Sporting CP, and kept a clean sheet over the tie, winning 3-0 on aggregate. Then, they faced Lille in the Round of 16, who had a very strong UCL campaign up to that point. A draw in Germany left everything to play for in the 2nd leg in Lille, where Jonathan David got the hosts off to a flying start, scoring 5 minutes in to give Lille the lead on aggregate 2-1. Dortmund showed their resilience however, scoring twice in the second half before holding Lille out until full time, taking the tie 3-2. I could see this quarterfinal going several ways, much is dependent on Barcelona’s injury situation at the time. So take this prediction with a grain of salt.

Prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Dortmund, Dortmund 1-1 Barcelona, Aggregate: Barcelona 3-1 Dortmund.

Quarterfinal 4: Inter Milan (#4) vs. Bayern Munich (#12)

Our final quarterfinal to discuss involves two perennial challengers for this competition in recent years. Inter Milan were runners up in 2023 to Manchester City, and Bayern have won the competition as recently as 2020.

Inzaghi’s Inter were a force of nature in Serie A last season, seemingly unbeatable. This year they have not been quite as unbelievably dominant, but are still quite a strong squad, proving it in the UCL League Phase. Their only blemishes on a perfect record were a narrow loss to Bayer Leverkusen, and a draw against Manchester City in a rematch of the 2023 final. In the Round of 16, Inter faced a Feyenoord team who showed a real capacity to upset one of the established giants and proved a tough challenge. Inter showed their quality in this tie, taking a 2-0 away win in Rotterdam before winning the second leg 2-1, where their aggregate lead was never less than 2 goals in the match. Inter have shown that they set up well for European play, and can match up against teams from any country well.

Their opponents however, have quite the strong squad as well. Harry Kane has been prolific as ever for Bayern, with Jamal Musiala enjoying another strong season playing just behind Kane. The arrival of Michael Olise has given Bayern another level to go to, and the young frenchman seems to have developed some very strong chemistry with Musiala and Kane. Manuel Neuer has been confirmed to be out for the rest of the season after suffering an injury in the 1st leg of their Round of 16 tie vs Bayer Leverkusen, and in his absence, 21 year old Jonas Urbig has been given the job in net. Urbig held a clean sheet in the return fixture vs Leverkusen, giving Bayern their spot in the quarterfinals. This is setting up to be a real Goliath vs. Goliath type matchup, and it should be very enjoyable to see the tactics of Kompany and Inzaghi facing off.

Prediction: Bayern 2-1 Inter, Inter 1-1 Bayern, Aggregate: Bayern 3-2 Inter.

Regardless of outcome, the new Champions League format made for a much more interesting “group stage”, and the quarterfinals are stacked with talent. If I had to guess at what the final might look like based on today, I would have to go with PSG/Madrid vs. Bayern Munich. I really like the football that PSG is playing, even if I’ve held a long-standing disdain for their ownership. However, Madrid is still in the competition, and as long as they are, I can’t definitively say they will not be in the final. I know Barcelona is probably the more favoured pick over Bayern to make the final on the other side of the bracket, but I feel like a 2020 UCL rematch could be on the cards this year. This time though, I think it would be a much better match than the one we saw in 2020.

Thanks for Reading!

-LM