Since the club from little ol Bodø made it to the Europa league semifinal last season, they’ve finally gained some well deserved recognition! As such, some of you reading this may already know who Kasper Høgh is. The 24 year old Danish striker who joined Glimt ahead of the 2024 Eliteserien season from Stabaek has had a meteoric rise since joining the Norwegian champions. After 5 goals in 14 matches for Stabaek in 2023, not many would’ve predicted him to score a goal per 90 minutes in his debut season at Bodø/Glimt, except for the Glimt scouts of course. This is already a trend, where Glimt sign a (at the time) relatively unknown striker without much proven success at their level, and develop them into regular Top 5 league players – Victor Boniface being the prime example. However, many might propose that Høgh’s strong performance was just a factor of him playing for a much stronger team. While it certainly helps to be surrounded by higher quality players, Høgh himself also developed his all-around game as the season went on and became a more complete striker.
As he started the 2025 season, Høgh once again looked to be a much improved player. This year, he started adding more playmaking to his game, averaging 0.32 assists per 90, up from 0.08 p90 in his debut Glimt season. Here is a good example of his evolved positioning and playmaking from today’s match vs. Sandefjord.
First, Høgh sees his team win the ball back in their own defensive third, and makes a quick run out to the wide channel to offer an outlet. He pulls the RCB out of position, but holds the ball up successfully and turns to bait a second Sandefjord defender in.
Then, spotting the underlapping run of his fullback, Høgh plays a perfectly weighted through ball between the two defenders marking him, leading to a clear cut chance on goal.
While very competent in the air, it would be a mistake to profile him as a target forward. Høgh has needed to become strong in holdup play, as he is often a lone outlet if Glimt are under extended pressure. He likes to drop in deeper at times and look to play through one of his teammates before arriving late in the box. When he does get the ball at his feet in the box, he produces a quality shot on target much more often than not. Høgh has consistently outperformed his xG numbers for all 3 seasons in the Eliteserien, as well as in last season’s Europa League. If a player overperforms xG in one season, there is right to have caution they may not replicate the same success. However, some players (though they are rare) can consistently outperform their xG, and that is what we are seeing so far with Kasper Høgh.
Strong out of possession, Høgh leads the Glimt press, with his main role being to force the ball up one side of the pitch. On average, he gets dribbled past (breaking the first line of the Glimt press) once every 5 matches, and wins the ball back in the final third more often than he is dribbled past. If moving to a club with a manager who can coach players in pressing, Høgh could no doubt become a very serviceable pressing forward at the Premier League level in such a system. He has only committed ~1 foul per match at Bodø/Glimt, and has only received a single yellow card on his disciplinary record.
The reason I believe that he will be available to purchase is because he recently signed a new contract extension at Glimt. This is a very common occurrence at Glimt right before a player is sold for a decent transfer fee. Høgh also just cannot stop scoring. Still scoring at a goal per 90 minutes in the league with Glimt, and at 0.6 p90 in the Europa League last season, Høgh will get a shot to prove himself in the Champions League this year. With the January window coming at the end of the Norwegian domestic season, it is often a convenient time for players to move, and I have little doubt that Høgh would succeed playing in a higher league. For reference, Høgh is scoring at a higher rate than Victor Boniface did in his final season at Glimt. I’m not sure if there’s some unofficial goals p90 threshold for Glimt strikers that other clubs have alerts for, but I’m certain that plenty of clubs around Europe’s top leagues are taking a look at Kasper Høgh right now.
A striker who has that bit of ego you want him to have when the ball finds his feet in a good scoring position, but all-around a very strong team player. By no means is Høgh a selfish player, and takes great delight in seeing his teammates score instead of him. His linkup and holdup play is strong, he is willing to battle with a bigger CB, and is a natural finisher in the box.
Just one example of a club that could 1. afford and 2. have a real use for Høgh would be Crystal Palace. I believe they’re looking for another striker to rotate alongside JP Mateta, and Kasper Høgh can play quite a similar style game to Mateta. Palace are in the Conference League this year, and Høgh already has experience scoring goals in the Europa League: with three against Olympiacos, a goal and assist against FC Porto, and a brace against Maccabi Tel-Aviv on his record.
If Høgh is still at Bodø/Glimt after the 2026 summer window, I will be shocked. It is not a question of if he will be purchased from Glimt (for a possible club record sale fee), but when. If Glimt qualify for the UCL knockouts there is a chance he could be persuaded to stay until the summer window, but I doubt his time at Glimt will last any longer than that. In today’s transfer market, there are many worse strikers than Kasper Høgh who a club could pay a lot more money for. Whoever signs him will be getting guaranteed value for money at the very least.
Hello everyone, we’re back with more interesting transfers to keep you up to date on! I’m going to try to go through most of these in quick-fire style so that I can include more players here.
Luis Diaz, LW, Bayern Munich
The tricky Colombian winger has been underpaid and undervalued at Liverpool for years now. He was making a fraction of his teammates salaries last year and his move to Bayern should finally give him the contract he’s earned. Honestly, a Diaz-Musiala-Olise trio behind Harry Kane sounds terrifying. I expect this to go better than the last Liverpool winger that Bayern signed.
David Hancko, CB, Atlético Madrid
If you didn’t know, I’m Slovak-Canadian, and David Hancko is one of my favorite players (I even own his matchworn kit from the 2024 Euro Round of 16 vs. England). I knew he was ready for a step up from Feyenoord and the Eredivisie, but when initial links came out that Saudi side Al-Nassr was going to sign Hancko, I was pretty disappointed. Obviously Saudi money is life changing, but at 27 Hancko is only just entering his prime as a defender and has the ability to play in the Champions League for a top club. This move to Simeone’s Atlético Madrid is PERFECT for Hancko. He fits into their system like a glove, and will be a favorite of Simeone’s. I’m expecting this Atléti team to be dangerous this season, so watch out for them.
Dan Ndoye, RW, Nottingham Forest
Now, as someone who doesn’t have time to watch Bologna matches regularly, I’ve mostly seen Dan Ndoye showing up for Switzerland at international tournaments, where he has performed admirably. Last season, Ndoye produced 12 goal contributions in 30 Serie A matches; however, it is worth noticing that he outperformed both his xG and his xA. How he may fare in the Premier League is still fairly unknown, but going to Forest means that he won’t be relied on to play every match. Ndoye might turn out to be a very sensible signing for Forest.
Quentin Merlin, LB, Stade Rennais
Who remembers the Quentin Merlin “Ones to Watch” post? Oh, you do, scouts of Stade Rennais? Great. I joke, but Merlin was one of the most standout players of the U21 Euro’s in my eyes, and both occasions I got to watch him live I was very impressed. I am not surprised, but I am pleased to see Rennes notice the same things I did. Merlin’s best attribute is his crossing/delivery. He can create some space for himself, then release a cross quick enough to be un-blockable for a defender. The low-driven crosses that Merlin can produce are that of a very high level. I really do hope he gets a major role for Rennes this year.
Robin Roefs, GK, Sunderland
Another player on my Euro U21 One’s to Watch list after his performances for the Dutch U21 team, Robin Roefs looks to have everything a top level keeper needs. I only got to watch him live twice at the tournament, so the only thing that could stop Roefs from becoming a very solid Premier League goalkeeper is consistency (which I could not evaluate off two matches). Roefs’ performance in the Eredivisie with Nijmegen did show signs that he is a consistent keeper. He has a very large frame at 193cm, and the aerial reach to match. Already a strong shot stopper, Roefs looked quite competent at playing out from the back with the ball at his feet. This is a fantastic signing for Sunderland.
Granit Xhaka, CM, Sunderland
Sunderland have made several good transfers ahead of their return to the Premier League, but my other favorite has to be Granit Xhaka returning to England at the Stadium of Light. A veteran, PL-proven presence to bring experience to the locker room and help the younger players on the squad is never a bad signing, and I think Xhaka still has a few good years left in him!
Mikey Moore, LW, Rangers
Fresh off his breakout season into the first team squad as Spurs’ youngest ever debutant, Mikey Moore is headed to Scotland on loan for the season with Rangers. Having already gained Premier League and Europa League experience, Moore is set up well to succeed this season if taken care of by the Rangers staff. He is Spurs’ brightest gem of a prospect, and one of England’s finest at that. It is definitely worth watching a few Rangers games this year to see how Mikey gets on.
Jacobo Ramón, CB, Como
I found this transfer interesting because Real Madrid appear to be trying out the same path that worked for Nico Paz. Jacobo Ramón, a young CB who has come through the Real Madrid Castilla system, and earned himself 6 appearances for the senior team last year, is joining Como on loan in Serie A. To be honest, I don’t know much about this player! His progression over time is promising though, and at Como he will certainly get the opportunity to show what he can do more often. Como will yet again be a fun team to keep an eye on this year.
James Trafford, GK, Man City
Probably the most likeable Manchester City transfer of the last years, James Trafford is returning to his boyhood club! After several years at Burnley, Trafford is moving back to Manchester, presumably to serve as Ederson’s backup. A fee of just over 30M euros was enough for Burnley to part with the 22 year old keeper, who might be seen as City’s long term future #1.
Pervis Estupinan, LB, AC Milan
The Ecuadorian wingback is a player I’ve associated with Brighton in my head for so long now, it’s very strange to write “Milan” next to his name. After 3 seasons and 104 appearances for the seagulls, Estupinan is moving to Milan for a pretty modest fee of 17M euro. With the amount of talent and experience that he brings now, I believe this is a strong pickup for Allegri’s Milan, who will be looking to make some waves this year in Serie A.
Jonathan Fischer, GK, Metz
Jonathan Fischer is a very interesting keeper prospect that I first noticed while watching the Eliteserien. Tasked with being the keeper for newly promoted Frederikstad, over the past two seasons, the Danish keeper has been a major part in his club’s success. Frederikstad finished 6th in their first season back in the top flight AND won the Norwegian Cup, with Fischer conceding 35 goals in 30 league matches along with notching 13 clean sheets. To start the 2025 season, Fischer has only conceded 20 goals in 17 matches, with 5 clean sheets. These kinds of stats for a team that is at a financial disadvantage to the rest of the league are extremely impressive. This was enough for FC Metz to sign him, where he should be given the opportunity to take the next step up in his career. Just 2 years ago Fischer was playing in the Danish 2nd tier for HoBro, and now he’s in Ligue 1.
Aleksandar Stankovic, DM, Club Brugge
The young serbian midfielder who turns 20 in a few days is joining Club Brugge from Inter Milan. Last season, Stankovic played for Luzern in the Swiss league, where he had a very strong season, starting 34 of 38 league matches, contributing 5 goal contributions from a defensive midfield role, and operating as a high volume passer for his side. What stands out the most about Stankovic at the moment is his long delivery. His defensive game looks strong and that’s his main tool, but he averaged 5 accurate long balls per match for Luzern last season, which was up with the best in all of Europe. Club Brugge is a solid place to land for Stankovic, who I believe could have the chance to become quite the player. I’d like to watch him some more though before making a full scouting report.
Franjo Ivanovic, ST, Benfica
When Benfica goes and picks up a young player, it’s generally a good idea to take note of it. Franjo Ivanovic got his start at the Augsburg academy (known for having some of the best training facilities in the world by the way), before moving to Rijeka in the Croatian League. Strong performances in Croatia led to Union Saint-Gilloise searching for his signature – and honestly now, I think we might have to look at Union SG striker signings a bit differently. Victor Boniface, Promise David, and now Franjo Ivanovic all impressing in Belgium. So after 20 goals in 46 matches for Union SG in all competitions last season, Benfica got the deal done and will be hoping that Ivanovic can perform better than the outgoing Casper Tengstedt. Having already made his senior national team debut at just 21 years old, the future is bright for Franjo Ivanovic.
This has been some more interesting transfers from the past weeks. I didn’t feel I needed to inform you about deals like Hugo Ekitiké to Liverpool or Viktor Gyökeres to Arsenal, so I preferred to bring some news that you might not have heard about (or players you might not have heard about!). For any questions or requests, please email me at scouting.futbird@gmail.com.
Hello all, it’s past time for an update on the Norwegian Eliteserien, as we are about halfway through the 2025 season. Let’s take a look at the table to start.
So to start off near the bottom, it is definitely worth noting the success that both of the newly promoted teams have found this season: Valerenga and Bryne. Valerenga suffered a shock relegation in the 2023 season, before they won the OBOS-ligaen in 2024 and returned to Norway’s top flight. A key player for them has been Cameroonian Fidel Brice Ambina in midfield. Ambina was purchased by Valerenga ahead of their 2024 season in the 2nd tier, and after helping them return to the Eliteserien, has been their best player. Moving from Cape Town City FC to Norway, Fidel Brice Ambina has potential to improve significantly, at only 23 years old. Bryne has also found themselves with a significant cushion over the relegation zone, with 18 points from 14 matches.
Stromsgodset and Haugesund are having truly terrible seasons so far, accumulating just 6 and 2 points, respectively. A miraculous turnaround would be required for either of these teams to escape relegation. The only real standout player here who is showing that he could have a future in the Eliteserien even if his team gets relegated is Marko Lawk Farji. The 21 year old Iraqi winger became a first team regular for Stromsgodset last season, and has been performing quite well for a forward on a struggling team.
Molde is a surprising name to see so close to the bottom of the table, although they did sell several key players from last year such as Kristoffer Haugen (to Viking). Of their 5 wins, 4 came against teams in the bottom 6 of the table, along with a surprising 3-0 win over Brann. Molde will likely not be in danger of automatic relegation, but they could well end up in the relegation playoff place if they do not improve performances soon. Molde have been in the top division of Norway since 2008, and a relegation would be a real shock to the division.
There are definitely signs that the difference between the Eliteserien and the best teams in the OBOS-ligaen (2nd division) is narrowing. I am happy to see both KFUM Oslo and Frederikstad, both teams promoted in recent years, becoming stable Eliteserien clubs. Both clubs are still in position to challenge for European places, and Frederikstad have proved to be a serious challenge for the top teams in the league.
Sandefjord is also having a great season for their standards. They have not finished in the top 10 of the Eliteserien since 2009, and are on pace to do just that this season. They have assembled a very fun young squad, with key players this season such as Christopher Cheng at LB (23), Stefan Ingi Sgurdarson at ST (24), Evangelos Patoulidis on the RW (23), and Zinedin Smaljovic at CB (21). This is a promising approach for Sandefjord, who will be able to use a strong league finish this year to make significant profit on player sales.
Rosenborg have rebounded from their disappointing year last season, and are firmly in European contention now. Sander Tangvik is having a strong season in goal, Tomas Nemcik from Slovakia is enjoying a breakout season in the defensive line as well. Ole Selnaes is the heartbeat of this team though, and Rosenborg generally go as Selnaes goes, especially after wonderkid Sverre Halseth Nypan was sold to Manchester City. If his form stays strong, then Rosenborg will have a strong push for the European places, although they will have to balance Conference League qualifiers with the league matches.
Bodø/Glimt have had significant fixture congestion over the first half of the season, due to their outstanding run to the Europa League semi-finals. This period saw them drop 8 points, enough for Glimt to be significantly behind the league leaders. Knutsen’s men look to be returning to fitness and form now though, having tallied three strong wins in a row over Sandefjord, Frederikstad, and Viking. Brann (A), Rosenborg (A), and Tromso (H) are the biggest fixtures remaining for Glimt and their final league position. As of today, they are 7 points back of leaders Viking, with 3 games in hand, and the league title is within their control if they win their matches. New reinforcements have joined in the summer window, most notably Magnus Riisnaes from Valerenga, a very exciting young winger.
Brann are pushing for the title yet again, after finishing 2nd the past two seasons. Young striker Aune Heggebo, who came through their academy, had another very good start to the season, but looks to have been sold to West Bromwich Albion in the English Championship. This is a player I’ve known for a long time, and do see potential in. Brann will have to hope that Bard Finne, their veteran striker, can fill the void left by Heggebo. Finne scored 16 league goals in the 2022 and 2023 seasons, but only managed 6 last year, and is underperforming his xG significantly. If Brann do not reinvest some of the ~8M fee for Heggebo, they may be resigning themselves to another year of missing out on the Eliteserien title.
Tromsø is performing much better than expected this season. Runar Norheim is a very exciting talent; the 20 year old LWB has been one of Tromsø’s best players this year and a major part of the team’s chance creation. Leo Cornic has found his form again after leaving Rosenborg, and is enjoying a good season opposite Norheim at RWB. If there’s a name you want to remember though, it is Abubacarr Sedi Kinteh. The 18 year old Gambian CB is playing his first season in Europe, and performing incredibly well for Tromsø. Kinteh is a ball playing defender, who dribbles with the ball well and creates chances. From a tactics perspective, this team is interesting, as in their 5-3-2, the midfield does not actually do that much chance creation, more focused on winning the ball and retaining possession. The wingbacks and overlapping CB’s provide a significant amount of Tromsø’s chance creation. I may publish a more in depth look at their tactics following the derby match vs. Glimt.
Finally, the league leaders Viking. While having played more matches than the other clubs (both Tromso and Bodo/Glimt could pass Viking for 1st by winning their 3 games in hand), Viking still deserve credit for putting themselves in this position. They will also be playing in European qualifiers starting this week, which could impact their league form. Viking still have the ability to push on and win the league, but it will require sacrificing the European games to do so. That is a tough decision, as the European competition prize money for reaching the League Phase and further is serious money for Norwegian clubs.
If you look at the table overall, keep an eye on the number of games played by each club. The points gap from 1st place to 6th place could be a mere 3-4 points in a few weeks’ time. This is setting up to be one of the most exciting finishes to a title race in Norway, as there have not been so many teams in contention for the title at the halfway point in past seasons. Keep an eye out for it!
If you do want to watch Eliteserien matches, they are free to stream on OneFootball.com, with a free account (this is not a promo, it’s just how I watch matches). Here are some fixtures to mark on your calendar if you want to see some of the best matches the Eliteserien has!
Fixtures to Watch For:
27th July 2025: Rosenborg v. Tromsø
9th August 2025: Bodø/Glimt v. Tromsø
10th August 2025: Sandefjord v. Viking
16th August 2025: Tromsø v. Brann
24th August 2025: Brann v. Frederikstad
31st August 2025: Sandefjord v. Bodø/Glimt ; Viking v. Rosenborg
21st September 2025: Rosenborg v. Bodø/Glimt
28th September 2025: Brann v. Bodø/Glimt
19th October 2025: Tromsø v. Viking
22nd November 2025: Tromsø v. Rosenborg
30th November 2025: Bodø/Glimt v. Frederikstad
That’s all for the mid-season review/end of season preview! I hope to keep spreading interest in the Eliteserien and Norwegian football in general.
Hello football fans, today I’m going to be taking a look at the 4 UEFA Champions League quarterfinals, how each team got to this stage of the competition, and what their chances to win it all might look like. Let’s get right into it.
Quarterfinal 1: Arsenal (#3) vs Real Madrid (#11)
Going into the first quarterfinal, drawn between Arsenal and Real Madrid, Arsenal are technically the favorites, looking at the results of the League Phase. The Gunners finished 3rd in the new format League Phase, earning them a bye to the Round of 16. Arsenal did not have the most difficult set of League Phase fixtures, playing only two other strong contenders for the trophy in PSG and Inter Milan. They managed to secure a 2-0 home victory over PSG, while losing 1-0 away to Inter. In the Round of 16, PSV did not pose much of a threat. Arsenal swept them away 7-1 in Eindhoven, before a 2-2 draw at the Emirates was enough to see the Gunners through.
In the other corner, annual UCL favorites and record 15-time winners of the competition, Real Madrid. Ancelotti’s men did not have the smoothest League Phase campaign in the UCL this year, losing to Liverpool, Milan, and Lille. This led to Real having to go through the knockout playoff round to reach the Round of 16, where they played fellow underperforming favorites Manchester City. The first leg at the Etihad was always going to be where this fixture’s story was decided, and after being down 2-1 to the Cityzens in the 80th minute, Real Madrid went back to Spain with a 3-2 victory after two late goals by Brahim Diaz and Jude Bellingham. They would complete their dispatch of Man City with a 3-1 victory at the Bernabeu.
Madrid will be most fans choice to move on here, but this fixture will still present some interesting matchups. Stylistically, you have Ancelotti’s “Laissez-Faire” approach to his man management, and Real Madrid’s often lopsided attack consisting of 3 left wingers, up against Mikel Arteta’s uber-structured style designed to limit chances against teams like Madrid. French international William Saliba will be tasked with keeping his compatriot, Kylian Mbappe, quiet in the tie. Also keep an eye out for the battle between Madrid’s highly skilled wingers, and Arsenal’s defensive minded fullbacks. It is entirely likely that we see Arsenal set up with four centre-halves, with Calafiori and Ben White playing as fullbacks. Arsenal will know that they cannot compete in a straight shootout with Madrid, and will likely look to limit as many chances as possible, while hoping to convert what they are able to produce. If Arsenal can get past Madrid, they will have gained invaluable experience and will likely have a new confidence in Europe that was missing before.
Prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Madrid, Madrid 2-0 Arsenal, Aggregate: Madrid 3 – 1 Arsenal.
Quarterfinal 2: Paris Saint-Germain (#15) vs Aston Villa (#8)
This matchup will be a neutral’s dream to watch. Both clubs out to prove something in Europe, in fine form, and not afraid to run up the scoreline. While PSG had some struggles in the League Phase, losing to Bayern, Atletico Madrid, and Arsenal en route to a 15th place finish and a path through the knockout playoff round. In this round, PSG were matched up against fellow Ligue 1 side, Brest. Brest had done incredibly well to make it to this stage, in what was their first ever European competition qualification, and ended up offering not much more than a huge confidence boost to PSG, who won the two leg tie 10-0 on aggregate. Ousmane Dembele is in the form of his life, and despite an Alisson masterclass leading to a Harvey Elliott snatch-and-grab winner at the Parc des Princes, the two-footed Frenchman was electric in both legs (no pun intended, I promise). A Liverpool defensive mishap early in the 2nd leg gave Dembélé the chance to tie the aggregate score at 1, before Gianluigi Donnarumma dominated the penalty shootout to take PSG into the quarterfinals.
Their opponents, Aston Villa, are back in the Champions League for the first time in a long time, and came out with a bang. Beating Bayern Munich 1-0 early in the League Phase gave the villains a boost, which helped them to the 8th and final automatic Round of 16 berth. There, they faced Club Brugge, who were dispatched 6-1 on aggregate. The January loan signings of Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio have paid off early for Unai Emery, and Villa will provide a potent threat to the PSG defence. I do really like how this Villa team is playing, but after what I saw out of PSG last round, I find it hard to see any other winner if Paris play anything like they did against Liverpool.
In the next quarterfinal, we have Hansi Flick’s Barcelona going up against Niko Kovac’s Borussia Dortmund. The Catalonians narrowly missed out on the top spot in the League Phase, losing once to Monaco, and drawing with Atalanta. They earned an automatic Round of 16 place, sweeping away Benfica 4-1 on aggregate to book their place in the Quarterfinals. There are some potential key injuries that could affect Barcelona in this tie, but we are too far out to know for sure yet. If healthy, Barcelona are well equipped to make a run to the final.
Their opponents, Dortmund, have had a slightly tumultuous season to-date. Last year’s UCL finalists, Dortmund started the season without the manager that took them to that final, Edin Terzic, who stepped down from his role after the season. Nuri Sahin took over to start the year, but poor results led to him being sacked and replaced by Niko Kovac. They still managed a respectable 10th place finish in the League Phase, and were never in danger of missing qualification to the knockouts. In the Knockout Playoff Round, Dortmund faced Sporting CP, and kept a clean sheet over the tie, winning 3-0 on aggregate. Then, they faced Lille in the Round of 16, who had a very strong UCL campaign up to that point. A draw in Germany left everything to play for in the 2nd leg in Lille, where Jonathan David got the hosts off to a flying start, scoring 5 minutes in to give Lille the lead on aggregate 2-1. Dortmund showed their resilience however, scoring twice in the second half before holding Lille out until full time, taking the tie 3-2. I could see this quarterfinal going several ways, much is dependent on Barcelona’s injury situation at the time. So take this prediction with a grain of salt.
Prediction: Barcelona 2-0 Dortmund, Dortmund 1-1 Barcelona, Aggregate: Barcelona 3-1 Dortmund.
Quarterfinal 4: Inter Milan (#4) vs. Bayern Munich (#12)
Our final quarterfinal to discuss involves two perennial challengers for this competition in recent years. Inter Milan were runners up in 2023 to Manchester City, and Bayern have won the competition as recently as 2020.
Inzaghi’s Inter were a force of nature in Serie A last season, seemingly unbeatable. This year they have not been quite as unbelievably dominant, but are still quite a strong squad, proving it in the UCL League Phase. Their only blemishes on a perfect record were a narrow loss to Bayer Leverkusen, and a draw against Manchester City in a rematch of the 2023 final. In the Round of 16, Inter faced a Feyenoord team who showed a real capacity to upset one of the established giants and proved a tough challenge. Inter showed their quality in this tie, taking a 2-0 away win in Rotterdam before winning the second leg 2-1, where their aggregate lead was never less than 2 goals in the match. Inter have shown that they set up well for European play, and can match up against teams from any country well.
Their opponents however, have quite the strong squad as well. Harry Kane has been prolific as ever for Bayern, with Jamal Musiala enjoying another strong season playing just behind Kane. The arrival of Michael Olise has given Bayern another level to go to, and the young frenchman seems to have developed some very strong chemistry with Musiala and Kane. Manuel Neuer has been confirmed to be out for the rest of the season after suffering an injury in the 1st leg of their Round of 16 tie vs Bayer Leverkusen, and in his absence, 21 year old Jonas Urbig has been given the job in net. Urbig held a clean sheet in the return fixture vs Leverkusen, giving Bayern their spot in the quarterfinals. This is setting up to be a real Goliath vs. Goliath type matchup, and it should be very enjoyable to see the tactics of Kompany and Inzaghi facing off.
Regardless of outcome, the new Champions League format made for a much more interesting “group stage”, and the quarterfinals are stacked with talent. If I had to guess at what the final might look like based on today, I would have to go with PSG/Madrid vs. Bayern Munich. I really like the football that PSG is playing, even if I’ve held a long-standing disdain for their ownership. However, Madrid is still in the competition, and as long as they are, I can’t definitively say they will not be in the final. I know Barcelona is probably the more favoured pick over Bayern to make the final on the other side of the bracket, but I feel like a 2020 UCL rematch could be on the cards this year. This time though, I think it would be a much better match than the one we saw in 2020.
Time to go through the rest of the UEFA nations who have not had any club capture a major continental trophy.
Kosovo:
While Kosovo, the Balkan nation of ~1.9M people, has not been competing in UEFA competitions for as long as many of the other countries here, they are still without a major trophy. Their best European finishes have been recorded by FC Ballkani, who have qualified into the group stage of the 2023-24 UEFA Conference League, and even recorded a 2-0 win over Dinamo Zagreb.
Latvia:
Next up is Latvia, who have about the same population as Kosovo (1.9M). No Latvian team has ever made the group stage of the Champions League, but Skonto FC made it to the third qualifying round in the 1999-2000 season, before being drawn against and losing to Chelsea. More recently, FK Ventspils have qualified to the group stage of the Europa League in 2009-10.
Lithuania:
Lithuania has almost 3 million people in population, but has come no closer to a continental trophy than most of the other countries here. Their most successful team is FK Zalgiris, who hail from the city of Vilnius. Zalgiris qualified to the group stage of the Conference League in 2022-23, which represented the nation’s best European result to-date.
Luxembourg:
Luxembourgish clubs face a long road to qualify for a UEFA competition. The winner of the league enters the Champions League first Qualifying Round, leaving them with 4 ties to win in order to qualify to the Champions League group stage. Due to this, no Luxembourg club has ever made the group stage of the Champions League. The best result so far is F91 Dudelange qualifying for the group stage of the Europa League in back to back seasons, 2018-19 and 2019-20.
Malta:
The tiny island nation of ~535k people does not boast a high-ranking domestic league, or a history of success, understandably. As of 2024-25, no Maltese club has made it to the group stage of a UEFA competition, with the closest one reached being the Third Qualifying Round of the Europa League. This was achieved by Birkirkara FC.
Moldova:
Moldova is a bit of an interesting case. The most powerful corporation in the country, Sheriff, owns the most successful team in the league, Sheriff Tiraspol. Since the year 2000, Sheriff has won the Moldovan league every year except for 3 (with the most recent surprisingly being last year, when Petrocub Hincesti won their first ever league title). With that level of consistent domestic dominance, Sheriff could turn their attention towards qualifying for the Champions League, which they did in 2021-22, including a famous 2-1 victory over Real Madrid. Technically the closest they have come to a trophy is reaching the Round of 16 in the Conference League in 2022-23, losing out to Nice.
Montenegro:
Another relatively small Balkan nation, Montenegro (population ~620k) does not have a large history in European club football. FK Zeta is their most successful club in this regard. Zeta reached the final playoff qualifying round for the Europa League in 2012-13 before losing, and the 2nd qualifying round of the Champions League in 2007-2008. Never has a Montenegrin club reached the group stage of a UEFA competition.
North Macedonia:
North Macedonia have been best represented in European competition by FK Vardar, who have qualified for the group stage of the Europa League in 2017-18, but were drawn into a group with Real Sociedad, Rosenborg, and Zenit St. Petersburg, finishing 4th. The lower level of the domestic league, and easy departures of domestic players for the Serbian/Croatian/Bulgarian leagues could all be reasons why Macedonian clubs have historically struggled to qualify for UEFA competitions.
Northern Ireland:
Northern Ireland (considered a separate nation from the UK by UEFA) are another country without a group stage appearance in a UEFA competition by one of their clubs. The club that has gone the furthest is Linfield FC, who have reached the final playoff qualifying round of the Europa League, coming within a match of the main competition. Perhaps we see a Northern Irish club break into one of the UEFA competitions proper in the coming years!
Norway:
Norway is one of the larger footballing nations on this list. The domestic league experienced their first great wave of European competition when Rosenborg dominated the domestic league for most of the 1990’s and 2000’s. In the 1996-1997 season, Rosenborg reached the Champions League quarterfinals, before narrowly losing out to Juventus. One of the members of this Rosenborg team was Runar Berg, a member of the well-known Berg footballing family from Bodo, Norway. Runar’s nephew, Patrick, would go on to reach UEFA competitions several times with Bodo/Glimt, the furthest Glimt reached being the quarterfinals of the Conference League. This year, Bodo/Glimt were one half of football from qualifying to the Champions League proper, before Crvena Zvezda mounted a comeback at home and ended the Norwegian’s hopes of being the next club from their country to reach the UCL.
Poland:
Poland, the largest nation by population without a major UEFA continental club trophy. With 41 million people calling Poland home, it is a surprise that there has not been a crowning moment for Polish club football yet. Multiple clubs have come very close, however. Legia Warsaw were semi-finalist of the 1969-70 UEFA Cup (Champions League), as Widzew Lodz were in 1982-83. Gornik Zabrze has come the closest, reaching the final of the 1969-70 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup (Europa League), before ultimately losing. The spring of 1970 must have been a rough time for Polish football fans, seeing two of their clubs come so close but ultimately fail to win a UEFA competition in the same season.
Ireland:
Unfortunately for the Irish, they do not have a similar story to Sir Alex Ferguson at Aberdeen to be proud of in their footballing history. No Irish club has made it to the semi-final of a UEFA competition, with the furthest one has reached being Dundalk in the Round of 16 of the 1979-80 UEFA Cup. There’s a nation waiting to celebrate success here, the only question is when it could happen.
San Marino:
San Marino is the smallest nation on this list, and as such should not be judged too harshly on failure to win a UEFA trophy. Just making it through the qualifying rounds is a gauntlet in itself, which no San Marinese club has succeeded in doing yet. Tre Penne is in rare air, having actually won a qualification round, in the Europa League. They would go out in the Second Qualifying Round, but still made memories for a lifetime, I’m sure. (Side Note: This is half of the most difficult challenge in Football Manager: Winning the Champions League with a club from San Marino, and win the World Cup with the San Marino national team. Nobody has ever officially done it).
Slovenia:
Slovenia, while still having a modest population of 2.1 million, have an advantage over many of their neighbors in the sense of sporting infrastructure. This has resulted in a regular pipeline of Slovenian players into the European leagues, but has not yet resulted in a crowning moment for a Slovenian club. NK Maribor technically have a trophy, being joint-winners of the smaller Intertoto Cup, a former international football tournament. This does not count, as the Intertoto Cup was an apply-to-enter tournament mostly intended to allow Football “Pools” (the predecessor to the sports gambling we know today) to continue throughout the summer, when there would otherwise be no matches. Olimpia Ljubljana has gone the furthest in a legitimate competition, making the group stage of the 2023-24 Conference League.
Switzerland:
Time for another Intertoto cup claim! Swiss side Grasshopper Club Zurich were joint winners of the very same Intertoto Cup mentioned that NK Maribor shared. In relevance though, Grasshopper Club have made the Champions League quarterfinal in 1978-79 (as the UEFA Cup), and the semi-final of the 1977-78 Cup Winners’ Cup (Europa League). They are without a doubt the most successful club in Europe for Switzerland.
Wales:
Wales is another interesting example, where there is a Welsh domestic league, but that isn’t the only way for a Welsh club to reach a UEFA competition. This is due to several Welsh clubs competing in the English football pyramid, most notably Cardiff City and Swansea City. Both clubs have qualified to UEFA competitions, with Cardiff City making it all the way to the semifinal of the 1967-68 Cup Winners’ Cup (Europa League)
That wraps it up! Every UEFA nation without a major continental club trophy, and the closest they’ve come to-date. Hopefully this was an interesting look at the other end of the football spectrum that gets covered much less. Perhaps this will inspire your next FM save 🙂
It’s time to talk about Dean Huijsen. The 19 year old centreback, born in the Netherlands, grew up in Marbella, now showing what Dutch total football with a Spanish touch is all about. Huijsen is balling out at Bournemouth this season after joining from Juventus Next Gen in the summer. Another smart piece of business by Bournemouth, recognizing Juventus’s need to sell promising prospects to raise funds for the here and now. Signed for around a 15M euro fee, Huijsen was seen as a depth option for Bournemouth now, but was never expected to contribute as much as he has. Compared to other CB’s in the top European leagues, Huijsen registers in the 85th percentile or higher for all offensive metrics. Not to forget the primary focus of a central defender, Huijsen has been no slouch in his own end this year. See his comparison to other top league CB’s from FBRef, below:
As you can see, this is a CB who wants to be on the ball. Progressive passes, carrying the ball, getting forward to receive passes behind the first line of press, he’s been doing it all this year. At only 19, one has to wonder if the sky is the limit for Huijsen. Take social media rumours for what you will, but the fact I’ve seen him linked with interest from Real Madrid is at the very least a testament to his play this year.
The young Spanish/Dutchman has shown a love for the biggest stage already. Bagged the game winner over Spurs at home, and 3 games later scored again at Old Trafford leading to another Bournemouth win over a Top 6 opponent. In his last outing vs Everton, Huijsen did his part and then some in a clean sheet performance, registering 9 clearances and 4 ball recoveries, while winning the majority of his duels. At the rate he’s going, I wouldn’t be surprised if a club tries to prize Huijsen away from the south coast of England, with a hefty profit going to Bournemouth, of course.
He’s one to keep an eye on. Dean Huijsen. Remember the name.
It is obviously important to have a good goalkeeper if you wish to win football matches. But should you have two? This is the question I wanted to take a look at today. It’s something that has caught my eye before which got spurred on (pun intended) by transfer news today.
Spurs have signed 21-year old Czech youth international Antonín Kinský from Slavia Prague today. If you looked him up and are now wondering why Wikipedia says he’s 49, that’s due to his father sharing the same name and profession. In the Czech league this year, the younger Kinský was covering himself in glory, holding the highest save percentage across Europe’s Top 10 leagues, as well as looking mighty confident in build-up with the ball at his feet. The intent of the club with this signing is for Kinský to compete with Guglielmo Vicario for the club’s #1 keeper role, rather than be a set backup right from the start. This is what made me think of similar instances, most notably coming to mind the Alisson/Kelleher duo at Liverpool, or Arsenals’ Raya/Ramsdale duo last season. So lets take a look at what the pros and cons seem to be of having pair of “starting” keepers.
In the case of Liverpool, it seems to have been almost entirely beneficial keeping two quality keepers at the club. However, I’m not sure how much of Liverpool’s ability to do this was due to Kelleher not demanding a move. That’s the thing with this situation, you have to get a bit lucky with both keepers wanting to stay and compete with each other. They’re professional athletes who want to play football, it makes sense that a move to become a first-choice keeper again would appeal to whichever of the two ends up getting less playing time. In Liverpool’s case, the age gap between Alisson and Kelleher has helped, as with 6 years’ less experience than his Brazilian counterpart, it is perhaps easier for Kelleher to accept being the “backup” unless Alisson gets injured.
Now in Arsenal’s case, it seemed to not work as well long term. When David Raya was brought in from Brentford, Mikel Arteta said that he had two #1 keepers now, and that they would be competing for the starting spot. How much truth there was in this statement, I’m not sure, because very quickly into the season David Raya was starting near every game, and Ramsdale was already looking at summer transfers. Arteta couldn’t satisfy both keepers with enough playing time but he also might have personally considered Ramsdale the backup to Raya, and just said otherwise to the press. Raya is three years older than Ramsdale, who is 26, so I can see why Ramsdale might not have wanted to stick around to be Raya’s backup.
So it seems obvious that having two starting keepers is better than one, but the downside to this is how difficult it is to KEEP two starting-quality keepers for more than one or two seasons. That’s not to mention keeping both keepers happy. The arrival of a new keeper to compete for the starting role could damage the original starting keeper’s confidence. What happens with Vicario and Kinsky at Spurs will have to be seen. My guess is that for the next season or two they will compete for the #1 role, and then if Vicario wins the starting role, Kinsky is more likely to accept less play-time without requesting a transfer due to his age. Vicario is 7 years older than Kinsky, which is similar to the Alisson/Kelleher age gap. If all goes ideally, the competition will make both Kinsky and Vicario play better, then when the older of the two keepers moves on from Spurs, Kinsky will be very much in his prime to take over.
Think about what you’d prefer at your team! A clear #1 and #2 keeper tandem, or this #1a and #1b duo that we are starting to see more teams target in recruitment. There’s no one correct answer.
Auf Wiedersehen, football fans! It is the eve of the summer tournament hosted by Germany, the 2024 Euros. Now I’m sure everyone reading this knows at least a little bit about the England, France, Germany, and Portugal squads that I would consider favorites to win this tournament. What about the other 20 squads competing for Europe’s greatest international prize, and does anyone else have a good chance to win the whole thing? I wanted to take a brief look at each squad today and give my prediction on how far they could “realistically” go. Realistically is in quotation marks because as we all know, this is football and anything can happen! So for example, if I say a country’s realistic best finish would be a Round of 16 exit, that does not mean I do not think they have any chance to win the tournament but rather that I think it would be a surprise if they were to advance further. With that said, let’s get right into it.
Group A: Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland
We start with the host nation Germany and Group A. Under Julian Nagelsmann, I expect to see Germany use a 4-2-3-1 formation. Ever-present German international Joshua Kimmich will likely start at RB, with a CB pairing of Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah alongside Stuttgart LB Maximilian Mittelstaedt, who is coming off a very strong Bundesliga season. A double pivot in midfield of Robert Andrich and Toni Kroos seems to be Nagelsmann’s preferred duo to start, with Jamal Musiala, Ilkay Gundogan, and Florian Wirtz set up behind striker Kai Havertz. Florian Wirtz is likely to play as a left winger on the team sheet, which is a departure from his usual #10 role at Leverkusen, however the fluidity of this front 4 means that Wirtz will be able to drift inside of the pitch to form a 4 man midfield alongside Gundogan, allowing for overlapping runs from Mittelstaedt and for Jamal Musiala to drive forward from the right wing more. Germany should top this group unless a shock result happens, and I believe they have the talent to go all the way. The home crowd behind them will surely be a massive boost to the players who will be very motivated to bring home their first Euro championship since 1996.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Scotland and their Tartan Army will be bringing all of the good vibes to Germany this summer, with the travelling fanbase being one of the most welcomed at international tournaments due to their passion. Scotland manager Steve Clarke may well have a few tricks up his sleeve, and he will need to in order to get the best out of his star players. Scotland have two standout left-backs in Andrew Robertson (who will be captaining the side) and Kieran Tierney. John McGinn will be asked to play a big role all over the pitch, while we may see Scott McTominay deployed in the most Libero of Libero roles. Clarke has experimented with McTominay playing as a right sided CB in a back 3, with full license to roam upfield and crash the box in attack. We are likely looking at a 5-4-1 formation, with Billy Gilmour and Celtic’s Callum McGregor as a midfield pair to provide stability while McGinn and McTominay roam around the pitch. While not guarantees to make it out of this group, I do believe Scotland can qualify for the Round of 16 if they bring their best football, but find it difficult to see them making it too much further into the knockouts
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
The Hungarian side is also a bit of a tough prediction. On one hand, they have an aging defence, anchored by Leipzig man Willi Orban, and Omonia Nicosia defender Adam Lang, both 31 years of age. On the other hand, they have a very competent attacking trio who will set up narrowly in this 3-4-2-1 formation, with Liverpool star man Dominik Szoboszlai and Freiburg’s Rolland Sallai in the 10 positions behind Ferencvaros striker Barnabas Varga. Young Milos Kerkez, playing at AFC Bournemouth, will play an important role for this Hungarian squad out wide, being asked to contribute on both ends of the pitch. This Hungary side also have a good amount of young talent coming off the bench, with the chance to change the game with their energy and make their mark on the international stage. I believe Hungary should be favorites to finish 2nd behind Germany in this group, but if not will likely advance as one of the top 4 third place teams. If they advance and get a favorable matchup in the Round of 16, there is every chance they can win a knockout match.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-finals
Finally we come to Switzerland. Just like Mexico keeper Memo Ochoa, who seems to come out from hiding every time the World Cup rolls around, Xherdan Shaqiri always seems to bring his absolute best form to the Swiss national team at the Euros. Expect the Swiss to also line up in a 3-4-2-1 formation. Granit Xhaka, fresh off a Bundesliga title-winning season at Leverkusen, will anchor the Swiss midfield alongside Bologna’s Remo Freuler. Manuel Akanji and Ricardo Rodriguez with his 115 caps will be at the centre of the backline providing a strong defensive base. Young Burnley striker Zeki Amdouni is prepared to make his arrival on Europe’s biggest stage and will be hoping to provide the attacking punch his team needs, although he will be competing with Noah Okafor and Kwadwo Duah for this position. Young, highly rated defender Leonidas Stergiou is also primed to make his appearance partnering Akanji and Rodriguez in defence. I believe this Swiss team has a relatively low floor (could very well not progress from the group stage), but if they do progress to the knockouts they should not be taken lightly. Peril has come to those who have made that mistake in the past.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Group B: Spain, Croatia, Italy, Albania
We begin the chosen “Group of Death” with the Spanish. While the Spanish are again a bit of an unknown in terms of how they will deal with the best teams at this tournament having only played Andorra and Northern Ireland in the final 2 friendlies before the Euros begin, they certainly have the talent to go far. Alvaro Morata will captain the side and start up front, most likely alongside Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams. Lamine and Nico are one of the most exciting winger duos to watch at this tournament, having both had standout seasons at Barcelona and Athletic Club Bilbao respectively. They will play in front of what is a very strong midfield with Pedri and Fabian Ruiz playing in front of Rodri, the best defensive midfielder in the world right now (and I don’t think there is much debate about that). Defence is where Spain’s weakness might lie. The experience of UCL winners Dani Carvajal and Nacho Fernandez will certainly be a big boost, the latter likely to start at CB alongside Ben Le Normand. Alejandro Grimaldo, who might just have been the best performing LB in Europe this season at Leverkusen (10 goals and 13 assists in the Bundesliga for the champions), should start at LB with Marc Cucurella as his backup. Surprisingly, Pedro Porro did not make Luis de la Fuente’s final Euro squad after a stellar season for Spurs, leaving the aging Carvajal and the already aged Jesus Navas as RB options. However, de la Fuente has experimented with Atletico’s Marcos Llorente at RB, who is naturally a midfielder but is extremely versatile in all parts of the game. Through midfield and attack, Spain have very solid depth which may help them gain an edge late in close matches. The likes of Dani Olmo, Alex Baena, Mikel Merino, Martin Zubimendi, Ferran Torres and Fermin Lopez are all available for de la Fuente to call upon. Overall the weakness of this Spain team may be as it has been in past years, a true goal threat at striker. Alvaro Morata is no bad player just to be clear, but we have often seen Spanish sides dominate possession in the opposition’s final third without being able to convert that dominance into goals. If Spain can produce balanced scoring from midfield and wing, they could go all the way.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Forgive me if I sound emotional when talking about Croatia, as this is almost certainly the last international tournament for Croatian legend Luka Modric. The motivation to make the most of this tournament will be strong amongst the Croatian side, with a very strong team throughout ready to punch above their weight yet again. While I am unsure what Zlatko Dalic’s exact starting lineup will be for their first game of the Euros, there are some positions I can expect to know the starters ahead of time. The midfield will most likely be Modric and Kovacic on either side of Marcelo Brozovic, with the next generation of Croatian midfielders ready to be called upon in needed. Luka Sucic and Martin Baturina will make their first major tournament appearances, with Sucic having been touted as Modric’s successor in the national team for a few years now. Josip Stanisic and Josko Gvardiol will most likely start at either full-back position having both enjoyed very strong seasons at club level this year. There is a strong veteran cast to select from at forward, with the likes of Andre Kramaric, Ante Budimir, Lovro Majer, and Ivan Perisic available. Having made it to the finals of the UEFA Nations League last summer, only losing out to Spain on penalty kicks, there is every reason to believe that this Croatia team is still built for knockout games in international tournaments. I would not be surprised to see them knock out a tournament favorite in the quarterfinals, although I would be surprised to see them win the entire tournament (but not disappointed).
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Finalists
Then on to the Azzurri, who are not widely considered favorites to win this Euros, but have often performed at their best in such circumstances. An injury issue has come up late for Luciano Spalletti, with Giorgio Scalvini, Francesco Acerbi and Nicolo Fagioli all picking up injuries in the leadup to the tournament. Scalvini and Acerbi will miss the entire tournament, while Fagioli is confirmed to be out for the first match against Albania. That being said, Italy still have a strong squad and should be considered one of the best-of-the-rest, in the sense that they are not a tournament favorite. Expect to see a starting lineup of Donnarumma in net, a back 3 of Darmian, Buongiorno and Bastoni, di Lorenzo and diMarco at wingbacks on either side of Jorghino and Barella, with Federico Chiesa and Pellegrini/Frattesi behind Scamacca up top. Spalletti looks to be choosing a 3-4-2-1 formation that most of his players will be comfortable in rather than using his 4-3-3 tactics that worked so well for him at Napoli. I believe that the Azzurri will only have a better chance at surprising everyone by taking home the trophy because they do not have the pressure of being a tournament favorite on them. I expect them to qualify from this group without much worry, and have the potential to make a deep knockout run. We should not be utterly shocked if Italy do go on to win this years tournament, although I am not saying that is the most likely outcome.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Finally we come to Albania. This is truly a case of poor luck, as they have been drawn into the toughest group they could have imagined. Albania was in great form in Euro qualifiers, topping their qualification group over the lies of Czechia and Poland. They have not had their chance to test themselves vs one of Europe’s best teams yet though, with pre-euro friendlies against Liechtenstein and Azerbaijan to prepare them for the tournament. It is no disrespect to the Albanian side to say that they are almost certainly going to finish last in this group, despite having some decent talent with the likes of Armando Broja, Kristjan Asllani, and Berat Djimsiti in the squad. I only hope to see Albania score some goals in this group (hopefully the first goal of the game to put some nerves onto their opposition) and give their travelling fans something to celebrate.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Out in Group Stage
Group C: Denmark, England, Serbia, Slovenia
Let’s start Group C by taking a look at the Denmark squad, who are returning several players from their Euro 2020 semi-final appearance. Kasper Schmeichel is still going strong at age 37 and will be backstopping this Danish team yet again. Bright fullback talents Alexander Bah (Benfica) and Victor Kristiansen (Bologna) will play alongside Joachim Andersen and Jannik Vestergaard/Simon Kjaer in defence. Captain Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg has a very active role in this Danish team, especially in attack where he moves up the pitch much more often than he does at club level for Spurs. Alongside Hojbjerg in midfield will be Sporting CP standout Morten Hjulmand, who offers great defensive workrate alongside progressive passing. The third member of this midfield is most likely to either be Andreas Christensen in a holding role, allowing Hojbjerg and Hjulmand to move further up the pitch, or Christian Eriksen in a 10 role, with the double pivot covering more defensive ground. Young Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund will lead the line, accompanied by Andreas Skov-Olsen and Mikkel Damsgaard. Expect to see the likes of Jonas Wind, Thomas Delaney, Joachim Maehle, Kasper Dolberg, and Yussuf Poulsen feature prominently as well for Kasper Hjulmand’s squad. I believe the Danes should be favorites for a top 2 spot in this group securing them automatic qualification for the Round of 16, but from there it all depends on the draw. An unfavourable draw could see them up against it to qualify for the Quarter-Finals, but avoiding one of the giants in the first knockout round could see this team have another shot at making it as far as a semi-final.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
England. Oh England, what to expect from you? With arguably the most talented player pool to pick from this year, England are considered strong favorites to win this year’s Euros. That being said, Gareth Southgate is still Gareth Southgate, who has struggled to make the most of this “golden generation” of England players, with his best result being the Euro 2020 final where they memorably lost to Italy at Wembley, on penalties. Criticism can be made of Southgates squad selection and tactics, especially in the biggest matches where he often opts to play very defensive. The notable absences of Jarrad Branthwaite, Jack Grealish and James Maddison could prove to be hurtful to England’s chances in international play, where they are much more likely to come across a strong defensive side than one that is willing to press them high up the pitch (which would benefit England). Several young faces are making their first appearance at a major tournament for England including Adam Wharton, Kobbie Mainoo, and Eberechi Eze. I think England is most set up to struggle against Serbia due to the way the Serbians will set up. Expect to see a 4-2-3-1, with Pickford starting in net, Walker, Stones, Guehi, and Trippier across the defensive line, Trent Alexander-Arnold partnering Declan Rice in midfield, with Jude Bellingham being the offensive focal point as the 10. Harry Kane is obviously going to be the starting striker, leaving the most uncertainty around the wing positions. When playing with 2 wingers who like to cut inside and drop deep to receive the ball, this can play into the hands of a team setup to defend their box with numbers and crowd the middle of the pitch (like Serbia). Will we see Phil Foden on the left and Bukayo Saka on the right, or will Eze, Gordon, or Cole Palmer get a start? This I cannot answer, but England should be favorites to top this group. How far they can go? Well that’s up to Southgate.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Now for Serbia, who I definitely think can progress from this group, either in 2nd place over the Danes or as one of the best 4 third placed teams. Specifically, I believe their match against England will be a very tactically interesting match. Serbia are likely to set up in a 5-3-2, with a very strong strike duo of Dusan Vlahovic and Aleksandr Mitrovic. For games against teams that are considered favorites, this will mean 8 players defending around the edge of their box, stacking the middle of the pitch and making it extremely difficult to play through Serbia with some quick one touch passing. When they win the ball back, Serbia will rely on support in attack from their wingbacks. On the left side this will be one of two Filip’s, either Kostic (Juventus) or Mladenovic (Panathanaikos). On the right this should be Dusan Tadic or or PAOK’s Andrija Zivkovic. The midfield 3 shouldn’t see more than 2 players join in attack, as they have a lot of defensive tendencies. There is enough talent in midfield to have solid depth options, and expect the Serbian team to defend as a unit in numbers. I think if the Serbs advance from this group (which I expect them to) they will provide a very difficult challenge for any team to face them in the Round of 16. It was not so long ago that we saw Neymar completely taken out of the game by this Serbian defence in the last World Cup. If there is one thing you can expect from this Serbian team, it is effort. They will leave everything on the pitch and should make this group’s qualification race quite interesting. I expect England to struggle the most against this side, and the game with Denmark should also be a tight contest.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Finally to Slovenia, the last team in this group. They are also, barring any shock results or truly all-time performances from Benjamin Sesko, likely to finish last in the group table. It is no disrespect to the Slovenes, who have done brilliantly to qualify for this tournament. They have alternated between using a 4-4-2 during the Euro qualifiers, to a 4-3-3 formation in the most recent friendlies. A useful data point for the predictions were Slovenia’s matches in qualifying vs Denmark, their group-mates here. Those ties ended 1-1 in Slovenia, and 2-1 to Denmark in Copenhagen, showing that this (potentially unknown to many) Slovenia side is no pushover. This is in great part due to the their keeper, Jan Oblak. Oblak is approaching his 10th season at Atletico Madrid, and has accumulated 333 appearances for Diego Simeone’s men in his career at the highest level, as well as 65 caps for his national team. Slovenia’s lack of appearances at major international tournaments is the only reason Oblak does not have more caps, as he has been a nailed on starter in net for over 10 years now. A strong goalkeeper can win you games, or at the very least prevent you from losing them. Oblak will be protected by standout defender Jaka Bijol, who at age 25 has already earned 49 caps for Slovenia, and currently plies his trade at Udinese in Serie A. The rest of the defence is well experienced for the national team but perhaps lacks that bit of quality that comes from not playing at the top level of European football. Erik Janza at LB currently plays for Polish side Gornik Zabrze, Bijol will be partnered at CB with likely either Vanja Drkusic or David Brekalo, who play in Russia and the MLS, respectively. Right-back Zan Karnicik has spent most of his career playing domestically in Slovenia. In the 4-3-3, the midfield will be comprised of Jasmin Kurtic, Tomi Horvat, and Adam Gnezda Cerin to start matches, which follows the trend of lesser known names but a strong blend of experience and youth, with 129 NT caps between these three. Kurtic is the veteran presence in midfield, having earned 91 of those caps himself. On the wings, Andraz Sporar and Jan Mlakar will likely line up on either side of Slovenia’s starboy, Benjamin Sesko. The RB Leipzig striker has scored 14 goals in his first season in the German Bundesliga after playing for Austrian Red Bull side Salzburg beforehand, and was wanted by many of europe’s biggest clubs (with the most interest from Arsenal) before he re-signed at Leipzig, committing to at least one more year in Germany. He is a strong all-around striker, equally adept at finishing in the air or on the ground. Slovenia will heavily rely on Sesko to be clinical if they are to realize their dreams of making it out of this group. I must give a shoutout to my favorite club, Bodo/Glimt’s only representative at this tournament (thanks to Norway not qualifying), Nino Zugelj! After significantly upping his game this season for the Norwegian champs, Zugelj received his first national team cap in the leadup to this tournament, and has been selected in the final squad. He will be looking to change the game off the bench at the RW position if called upon. In short, this team is Jan Oblak, Benjamin Sesko, and several industrious players to play between them. Slovenia will not be an easy game for any team in this group, but chances are they could fail to win a match in this group stage and see an early exit. However, I won’t count them out right away, as in a 3 match group stage, 1 win could mean everything to qualification.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
Group D: Poland, Netherlands, Austria, France
To start off with Group D, I will be looking at the team that likely has the worst chances of qualifying from the group: Poland. After having been touted as a tournament dark horse for much of the past decade and failing to deliver on that promise, Poland’s key players are approaching the ends of their career, and with a late injury picked up by Robert Lewandowski, they will have a mountain of a challenge to qualify from the group. Wojciech Szczesny, now age 34, is still between the sticks for Poland, and he will likely have either a 5-2-3 or 5-3-2 in front of him for this tournament. There is not an absence of young talent in this squad however, with the next generation of Polish players having made their way into the senior team. The standout player of this generation of players has to be Roma’s Nicola Zalewski, who will play as a LWB in this setup, but also can play up front as a LW. Brighton’s Jakub Moder will be looking to be called upon in midfield, and Arsenal’s Jakub Kiwior is already a nailed on starter at the LCB position. Poland should be difficult to break down in defense, but the real question lies in where their goals will come from, especially if they are without record goalscorer Robert Lewandowski for the entire group stage. Being in the same group as France and the Netherlands, alongside a very underrated Austria side will make the Polish task difficult. They have the talent to take a result against any team, but likely can not be relied upon to do so. While it is not impossible for Poland to qualify from the group, it is also not impossible that they finish with 0 points from this group stage. I find it hard to see Poland qualifying from the group, and if they do harder to see them winning a knockout stage game. The Polish faithful will be praying for Lewandowski’s return as early as possible.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Out in Group Stage
Onto the “Oranje”, Ronald Koeman’s contingent from the Netherlands. They suffered two major injuries in the lead up to the Euro’s opening matches in their midfield, with standout performers Frenkie de Jong and Teun Koopmeiners both out for the tournament. The Dutch have a vast player pool to select from, and both Ian Maatsen and Joshua Zirkzee have been called up to fill the vacant spaces in the team. Given the midfield injuries, I would expect to see the Dutch play a 4-2-3-1 formation, allowing their attacking talent to fill the space left by the midfield losses. Alternatively, Koeman may use a 3-4-2-1 formation. In classic Netherlands fashion, there is a wealth of CB talent available, and we will likely see a CB playing at LB in this team. Nathan Ake would be the first choice here, with young Spurs star Micky van de Ven ready to offer his blistering pace when Ake begins to tire in a match. Denzel Dumfries offers impressive output at both ends of the pitch at RB, and will likely be backed up by versatile Feyenoord defender Lutsharel Geertruida. Virgil van Dijk and Stefan de Vrij will likely start at CB, with Matthijs de Light and Daley Blind offering cover. In midfield, Ryan Gravenberch will be asked to carry a lot of the load now, and will likely be partnered by one of the PSV duo of Schouten or Veerman. In attack, the Dutch have strong depth, and we are likely to see Leipzig star Xavi Simons at the heart of it as the 10. Leverkusen RWB Jeremie Frimpong will play up front as a RW, with Cody Gakpo taking a left inside forward role behind Memphis Depay. If no further injuries occur, this Dutch team definitely has the talent to go all the way, but like always it depends on the knockout round draw. Expect the match between France and the Netherlands to be the highlight of this group featuring a plethora of very good footballers.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Ralf Ragnick has transformed this Austria team into what can only be described as a team greater than the sum of its parts. His high pressing philosophy is well suited to this Austria side, and even without star defender David Alaba, will present an unwelcome challenge to any opponents. Experienced striker Marko Arnautovic leads the line, supported by a wealth of young talent in attacking midfield behind him: Patrick Wimmer, Christoph Baumgartner, and Roman Schmid were all selected for Austria’s pre-tournament friendly win over Serbia, with all 3 being 24 years of age or younger. Nicolas Seiwald adds to this trend from midfield, providing a creative spark. Seiwald should be partnered by veteran Konrad Laimer to provide a good balance for their double pivot. In defence, Ragnick has not given much away in terms of his selection, using two entirely different back 4 combinations in the two pre-tournament friendlies. The goalkeeper selection is also uncertain, with Heinz Lindner and Patrick Pentz are the more established keepers, while young Niklas Hedl (Football Manager addicts like myself will recognize that name), is the future of the Austrian national team in net and might just make an appearance at this tournament. If everything clicks, this Austrian team will at worst be a team no favourite will want to be drawn against in the knockoutst, and at best could make a strong run at this summer’s Euros.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Semi-Finals
Finally, France. I probably have the least insight to offer here, as this French team is very well known, having won the 2018 World Cup and reached the finals of the 2022 World Cup. Didier Deschamps’s managerial credentials cannot be doubted, although perhaps his loyalty to his top performers of past tournaments may start to affect the peak this France team can achieve in the coming years. Ibrahima Konate will likely partner Dayot Upamecano at CB, despite William Saliba having become one of the best CB’s in the Premier League. Jules Kounde and Theo Hernandez are pretty nailed-on as starters at the fullback positions, but now for my favorite part of France’s team this year: N’GOLO N’GOLO, KANTE! The constantly smiling French midfielder makes his return to the national team for this year’s Euros as perhaps the biggest surprise of Deschamps team selection. France and neutral fans alike had no complaints, as we all love seeing Kante on the pitch. Kante, Camavinga, Youssouf Fofana, and young PSG star Warren Zaire-Emery are the players competing for the two midfield places in this team, and I would expect Deschamps to default to experience, starting Kante and Camavinga until shown a reason not to. Ousmane Dembele, Antoine Griezmann, Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud will make up the attacking quartet, with a wealth of talent off the bench. Bradley Barcola, Randal Kolo-Muani, Kingsley Coman and Marcus Thuram are all available for Deschamps to call upon if needed. There’s no mincing words on this squad, they are arguably the strongest in the tournament, and if you include the manager in your assessment, they are very likely the strongest squad at this summer’s tournament. Nobody would be surprised if Mbappe and Co. take home the big prize.
Realistic Best Potential Finish: Winners
Group E: Belgium, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania
This group offers a lot of unpredictability, which is my way of saying the favourites on paper (Belgium) have noticeable weaknesses. They’ve played 3 different formations in their most recent 3 matches, so it is hard to predict what will be used for their opening match vs Slovakia. Instead, lets look at the talent they have at their disposal. In attack, Romelu Lukaku or Lois Openda are the main two striker options, with Charles de Ketelaere as another choice. Jeremy Doku, Leandro Trossard, Johan Bakayoko and Yannick Carrasco offer support from the wings. Group E fullbacks will have their work cut out for them dealing with this group. Andre Onana and Kevin de Bruyne should both play prominent roles in midfield, with up and comers such as Arthur Vermeeren and Aster Vranckx joining the national team for this tournament. The weakness of the Belgium team is in defence: no Thibaut Courtois available due to injury, so Koen Casteels will start in net. Zeno Debast, the young Anderlecht defender with 8 caps by age 20, and Arthur Theate are the only defenders with reasonable pace in this side which is full of veterans in defence (while only 26, Wout Faes can hardly be described as pacey and has the pace of 37 year old Jan Vertonghen). Axel Witsel is still in the squad, while Thomas Meunier and Timothy Castagne make up the rest of the defensive options. Belgium will rely on a potent attack to outscore opponents, and will not pick up many clean sheets in this tournament I believe. However their attack is so good it should still give them the edge to finish first in this group, though I think any of three teams could top this group depending on how the group stage plays out.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Semi-Finals
Before I begin discussing Slovakia, I should offer a disclaimer so you can decide whether what I say is in any way biased: I am Slovak-Canadian and am indescribably excited for Slovakia to begin their third ever Euro tournament with great optimism. HOWEVER, I’ll start off with the weaknesses of this slovak side to try to be unbiased. Aside from the retirement of possibly Slovakia’s greatest ever player Marek Hamsik (who joins this squad as the assistant coach), that weakness is scoring goals. In the lead-up to the Euro’s starting, Slovakia recorded back to back 4-0 wins over San Marino and Wales though. Given that those two teams are not the toughest competition in Europe, we should not overreact to the scoring, but Slovakia scored 17 goals and conceded 8 across the Euro qualifiers under Francesco Calzona, with half of the goals conceded coming to tournament favorites Portugal. In those two matches, only a goal separated Slovakia from Portugal, with a 1-0 loss in Bratislava followed by a thrilling 3-2 loss in Portugal. This bodes well for Slovakia’s ability to play against the best teams, as if it was their day both of those matches could’ve gone the other way. Slovakia likely have the best defence in this group, with Martin Dubravka in goal, and Milan Skriniar anchoring a defensive unit that should include Copenhagen CB Dennis Vavro, who has shown great ability on the ball in the lead-up to this tournament, and current active highest cap-holder Peter Pekarik at RB. Pekarik, 37 years old now, has amassed 127 caps for the Slovak national team and joins a defence full of experience. At LB, and for me the player who could potentially be Slovakia’s player of the tournament, is David Hancko. Hancko is a bit of a unicorn. Tall, physically strong, good pace and with great ability on the ball, Hancko is comfortable playing CB as well as LB, so he will offer defensive coverage as well as some beautifully whipped crosses into the box. The Slovak midfield 3 of Calzona’s 4-3-3 formation will be comprised of 234 national team caps between holding midfielder and Napoli man, Stanislav Lobotka, with Juraj Kucka and Ondrej Duda on either side of him. Keep an eye out for Slovakia on set-pieces, especially Duda’s deliveries. This is not bias but deserved praise when I say Duda’s corner delivery is better than many Premier League level players, able to put the ball in with pace and height to get past the first defender, before showing the ability to drop the ball right on the head of the first Slovak player at the near post. Excellent set piece delivery and having 3 CB-sized players in the backline makes for a dangerous recipe for defenders. Genk’s Patrik Hrosovsky and Hamburg’s Lazslo Benes will be the first options of the bench in midfield, with 21 year old Tomas Rigo potentially getting his first taste of major action. Up front young Boavista striker Robert Bozenik will start as the main man up front, with Sparta Prague’s Lukas Haraslin being a sure starter on the left wing. At right wing, Ivan Schranz is likely to start matches, where he often contributes just as much in tracking back and winning the ball as he does in attack which could be invaluable to a Slovak side that will not be able to be a possession dominant team in this tournament. 22 year old Tomas Suslov (Duda’s teammate at Hellas Verona in Italy) and David Duris are both solid options to be subbed on for Schranz. The one player in attack that I hope you all get the chance to see play is 18 year old Feyenoord winger Leo Sauer, who is without a doubt the best attacking prospect Slovakia has produced in my lifetime. Sauer moved to Feyenoord at 16 and became a regular squad player under (now Liverpool boss) Arne Slot this past season. In March, Sauer became the youngest ever player to play for the Slovak senior national team, and has his second cap from the recent pre-tournament friendlies. I believe the top 3 teams in this group will all have a chance to win the group and all 3 will advance to the knockouts, meaning a favourable knockout draw could see Slovakia surprise many. Realistically from what I’ve seen of the possible knockout matches, Slovakia will face a tournament favorite in the quarter-finals should they make it there, which I believe they absolutely have a solid chance to do.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Onto another potential surprise at this summer’s tournament: Ukraine. This is a very strong Ukraine squad and could be one of the 3 teams that I believe have a chance to come 1st in this group. Led by La Liga top scorer Artem Dovbyk up front, with his Girona teammate Viktor Tsygankov and Chelsea speedster Mykhailo Mudryk on the wings, the Ukraine attack is about as good as it has been in recent memory. Shakhtar Donetsk star midfielder Heorhiy Sudakov provides the vision and passing from the centre of the pitch. Several Premier League players populate the Ukrainian defence, with Vitaliy Mykolenko and Ilya Zabarnya sure to play prominent roles, while Arsenal’s Oleksandr Zinchenko is more likely to play as a holding midfielder. Real Madrid’s Andriy Lunin, fresh off backstopping Madrid to the Champions League final and La Liga title, will take the start between the sticks. Like the other top contenders from this group, there is a lot of unknowns. Whichever team of Belgium, Slovakia, or Ukraine brings their best form will likely finish 1st, while I believe all 3 will advance. Depending on the draw in the knockouts, I think it not impossible that Ukraine could win a knockout match as well, though I see it difficult for them to reach the semi-finals.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Quarter-Finals
Finally, Romania, who seem the weakest team in this group by a fair margin, especially considering form coming into the tournament. The Romanians achieved a 1-0 victory over Switzerland in the final match of Euro qualifying, but since then in their friendlies before the tournament have drawn Northern Ireland, lost to Colombia, and had back to back 0-0 draws against Bulgaria and Liechtenstein. None of the European teams they drew against have qualified for this Euros, with Liechtenstein being the smallest European country outside of San Marino. It does not bode well for Romania’s chances to advance from this group. The star of this team is the 22 year old Spurs CB, Radu Dragusin. Captain Nicolae Stanciu and his 70 caps (active leader for Romania), will lead this side from an attacking midfield role, alongside Alaves midfielder Ianis Hagi, (yes, that’s Gheorghe Hagi’s son). The majority of this Romania squad plays their club football in Romania, Turkey, or the Italian Serie B. Lacking the same top-level talent as the other teams in this group, Romania could unfortunately end up without a point, while a draw is likely their best outcome from any of these matches. Dragusin is also the youngest player in this team and the only player younger than 24, so the experience of playing at this Euro’s will not benefit most of the younger generation of Romanian players who will be called upon in future years. Let’s hope they can give their passionate fans something to cheer for.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Out in Group Stage
Group F: Turkey, Georgia, Portugal, Czechia
Time for the last group, Group F. This group should be relatively easy for a strong Portugal side to finish 1st in, while the 2nd place qualification spot is up for grabs.
Starting with Turkey, who have some talent on this team but do not look to be in the best form coming into the tournament, having not won a match since November 2023. A draw to Wales, losses to Hungary and Austria (the latter by a 6-1 scoreline), a draw to Italy and a loss to Poland in their last 5 matches do not give too much room for optimism, but this group still offers a decent chance to qualify if the Turks can turn it around. Led by youth at the front, either 18 year old Besiktas striker Semih Kilcsoy or 19 year old Juventus up-and-comer Kenan Yildiz will be called upon to bring the goals. I expect Kerem Akturkoglu, Orkun Kokcu, and Arda Guler to start behind the strikers in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which offers a good attacking punch. Turkey legend and captain Hakan Calhanoglu, who is still performing for Inter Milan at age 30, will offer the playmaking from the midfield while paired with Dortmund defensive midfielder Salih Ozcan. Recently in defence, the back 4 has been chosen with a defensive mindset, with Roma’s Zeki Celik (a CB/RB hybrid player) and Mert Muldur (also a CB), are playing at the fullback positions. Abdulkerim Bardakci is likely to start at CB, with his partner not seemingly set yet, but I think Samet Akaydin from Panathinaikos is likely to start. New Manchester United #2 keeper Altay Bayindir is likely to get the start, although Besiktas Mert Gunok could start if Vincenzo Montella prefers the veteran presence in net. If Turkey can perform against Czechia and Georgia, they are in with a solid chance of qualifying, though I doubt their credentials to go deep in this tournament.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
Next, to Georgia, who had to run the gauntlet to qualify for this year’s tournament after not securing automatic qualification from their group. A 2-0 win over Luxembourg and a dramatic penalty shootout win over Greece booked their tickets to Germany, with keeper Giorgi Mamardashvili becoming a national hero for his saves in that shootout. Mamardashvil is a top keeper in my opinion, and has had another solid season in La Liga with Valencia. Georgia is in ways similar to Slovenia: one of their best players is their keeper, and the other is a forward. That forward being Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, who has an impressive 15 goals in 30 caps while playing as a winger for the national team. If “Kvaradona”, as he is affectionately nicknamed by the Napoli faithful, can produce some magic in this group stage, there is no reason to believe Georgia cannot continue this dream run just one step further. Winning a knockout game will prove to be a very tough task if they do qualify.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Round of 16
Onto a tournament favorite, Portugal. The greatest weakness of this Portugal team is honestly their manager. Roberto Martinez is one of the most successful managers in the world at failing upwards – after underperforming with Belgium’s “golden generation”, culminating in a massive fallout within the squad at the last World Cup, he has somehow landed the Portugal job. This is a case where the players may need to just ignore the manager and do what they know is best in games, as there is the talent to go all the way. Porto’s Diogo Costa, who is seen as the next big thing for European keepers, will start in net, finally getting the #1 spot over aging Rui Patricio. Portugal have switched between a 4 and 5 back formation in their 2 pre-tournament friendlies, with the back 5 being used to allow talented young defenders Antonio Silva and Goncalo Inacio to play alongside veteran Pepe, who looks an ageless wonder still able to perform at top level while 41 years old. Diogo Dalot, Joao Cancelo, and Nuno Mendes are all very strong wingback options. In midfield, there are several options to use, with Bruno Fernandes, Joao Neves, Joao Palhinha, and Vitinha being the major candidates to start (depending on formation). Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leao, Joao Felix and Goncalo Ramos are all candidates to start up front, with Cristiano Ronaldo likely to play a super-sub role in his final Euro tournament. This team has so much talent available to them, we should not be surprised if they do go all the way.
Realistic Best Possible Finish: Winners
Finally we arrive at the Czech squad. This is a relatively weak Czech team compared to what we might’ve seen in Euro’s past, there are no Pavel Nevded’s in this year’s team. However, there is still some solid talent, with Leverkusen duo Adam Hlozek and Patrik Schick leading the attack. Fiorentina midfielder Antonin Barak adds quality to midfield alongside West Ham stalwart Tomas Soucek. Soucek’s teammate Vladimir Coufal offers veteran leadership in defence alongside some solid young talent. The player to watch for me is Sparta Prague midfielder Ladislav Krejci, who recently moved from CB to midfield at club level and has thrived in a tempo-controlling role. The Czechs can absolutely qualify from this group, but I find it tough to see a path far into the knockouts for them. A Round of 16 appearance will be seen as a success.
The Final of this years Champions League is set: the seemingly inevitable Manchester City led by Pep Guardiola will take on Simone Inzaghi’s Inter Milan, who are not only fighting for the trophy now, but also fighting for their competitive future in the coming seasons. In this article, I will discuss the tactics employed by both managers, the storylines of the final, and predict how we are likely to see the game play out.
Manchester City: Striving for Immortality
Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side could be as little as 3 wins away from becoming the second ever English team to win the treble of the Premier League, FA Cup, and Champions League. They would also be the 8th club to have accomplished the treble in Europe.
Celtic (1967), Ajax (1971), PSV Eindhoven (1988), Manchester United (1999), Barcelona (2009 and 2015), Inter (2010), and Bayern Munich (2013 and 2020) are the previous clubs to have completed the feat. Guardiola already features on the list with his 2009 Barcelona side – his very first full year in charge of the team. The greatest motivation on this list for City’s fans is to join their rivals, Manchester United, as the only English clubs to have won the treble. As it stands, that 1999 treble is something United fans have held over their heads for close to a quarter of a century now. A victory at the Atatürk Stadium in Istanbul would make the treble a very likely occurrence, as City are set to clinch the Premier League title with a single win from their last 3 games, and will then have to dispatch the aforementioned Red Devils in the FA Cup final at Wembley.
So how have the Cityzens arrived at this final? By bringing back one of the oldest tactics in football, of course. When the offsides rule was changed such that only two defenders (including the keeper) were required to play an attacker onside, many English teams starting sending more players forward, and would often line up in a 2-3-5 shape (yes, 5 forwards). To counteract this, a shift that at the time was considered very defensive was made: the W-M formation. The name comes from the shape that the players form, which is a 3-2-2-3 (the front 5 make a W, while the back 5 form a M-shape). If you take the 4 midfield players and rotate them to form a diamond, or a flat line, then this looks like a version of the 3-4-3 that we still see today. However, this is NOT a 3-4-3. Here is how Guardiola’s side lines up:
The first point I want to mention is the box in midfield formed by Rodri, John Stones, Gundogan, and Kevin De Bruyne. This midfield box is a shape commonly used in buildup in modern football, but is usually formed by a player moving infield. At Barcelona, Gavi is often played as a left winger, but drifts infield to form a box with the 3 midfielders in their 4-3-3. This box shape is so popular in midfield, as it provides the 4 players with a variety of passing options. Against most opposition, the midfield box is working around at most 3 midfielders in the centre of the pitch. If the defending team brings a 4th player in to press, then this opens up space elsewhere on the pitch. This is why many teams that use this box midfield shape are high-quantity passing, possession-based sides. I’ll take another look at how this could open up space against Inter’s side later in the article.
The second main point I want to add is that this formation is not static in buildup. As many of you already know, Pep Guardiola teams play the positional-play style of football. A short explanation of positional play:
In positional play theory, the pitch is divided into spaces as shown in the image above. Simply put, no more than 2 players should be in the same vertical channel, and no more than 3 players should be in the same horizontal line to cover the full pitch as efficiently as possible and provide adequate passing options. You’d have difficulty finding a game where City showed how well drilled they are in these principles more than the second leg of their semi-final against Real Madrid. No player was stuck to a position on the field, and when one moved, the others adjusted accordingly to maintain positional-play on the field. The versatility of the City squad was also on full display, with each player showing their proficiency in different roles as the situation required. In buildup, City would often overload one side of the pitch. To me, it almost appeared as if Bernardo Silva and Ilkay Gundogan were positioning themselves in relation to Kevin De Bruyne, who is often given a free-roaming role in this system. When De Bruyne moved, with or without the ball, Gundogan and Bernardo reacted as if on cue.
When De Bruyne ran towards the right flank, an overload was created by Bernardo staying wide and moving forward, Kyle Walker moving up from his RCB position into a RWB space, and the rest of the midfield box moving over to match De Bruyne. Alternatively, De Bruyne would move all the way into the wide space, and Bernardo drifted inside to take his place in the midfield box. No matter the side of the field or the rotation of players, City’s midfield box was the only constant in a sea of movement, formed by committee with whoever was in the right position to take the spot. The fluidity was at a level higher than I’ve seen in recent memory, reminiscent of the glory days of Barcelona.
Path to the Final:
Group G: City topped their group with Dortmund, Sevilla, and Kobenhavn unsurprisingly, with little drama.
Round of 16 vs. RB Leipzig: 8-1 on aggregate, after a first leg 1-1 draw. Home field advantage seems real.
Quarterfinal vs. Bayern Munich: 4-1 on aggregate. Bayern is in a period of uncharacteristic chaos, and it’s translating to the pitch. Thomas Tuchel was given a warm welcome to his new job.
Semifinal vs. Real Madrid: 5-1 on aggregate. The score was 3-1 on aggregate going into halftime of the second leg, and after City withstood Madrid’s efforts early in the second half, Los Blancos looked resigned to their defeat
Inter: Restoring Past Success for The Future
Inter Milan had not made the Champions League semi-final stage since they won the competition in 2010 under Mourinho. Only 6 clubs have won more than Inter’s 3 UCL titles in history however, and winning this final would put them level with Ajax on 4 titles. Bringing the biggest trophy in Europe home to the San Siro would mean so much more than just the history being made, it could give Inter a much needed boost in finance and spirit to stay competitive and continue qualifying for the Champions League, which they have not failed to do since the 2016-17 season. This season, Inter’s financial position has been well known to fans and Directors of Football around Europe. To compete with billionaire-owned clubs in Europe, Inter Milan’s spending in recent years has not been sustainable. As a result of this, the club was forced to take out an emergency loan from American asset management firm Oaktree Capital totaling 275 million euros. This debt is due to be repaid in the summer of 2024, and if it cannot be repaid, Oaktree Capital could take control of the club. While the Champions League cannot provide all the revenue to make up that debt, it can certainly be said that missing out on the additional revenue that comes with playing in the Champions League would be a de-facto nail in the coffin for Inter. Below, I’ve attached the prize money breakdown for this season’s Champions League.
This season, Inter won 3 group stage games and drew 1, totalling 9.33 million euros. Reaching the final has since added another 48.2 million euros to their total, and winning the competition could take this years prize money up to over 75 million euros. This is not including broadcast revenue and match-day revenue (Inter raked in over 10 million euros of match-day revenue in their semi-final tie against AC Milan). If it couldn’t be any clearer by now, Inter need the Champions League to survive. At one point in the season, it looked in doubt whether Inter would qualify for next season’s Champions League by finishing Top 4 in Serie A. With 3 games to play, Inter now holds a 5 point lead over AC Milan in 5th place, putting them in a good position to qualify. If they fall out of the top 4 places in Serie A however, Inter will need to win this year’s Champions League final to qualify for next season’s competition. Talk about pressure. With the stakes known, let’s look at how Inter will likely line up.
Since Milan Skriniar went down with a spinal injury in the first leg vs. Porto, the only change to Inter’s main 5-3-2 formation arrived. Darmian was dropped back to RCB to take Skriniar’s place, and Denzel Dumfries came in at RWB. While Inter would love to have Skriniar in this final for his defensive capabilities, Dumfries and Darmian make for a much more offensive right side than Darmian and Skriniar. Accordingly, this formation will play more like a 3-5-2 than a 5-3-2.
Look for Federico Dimarco to keep a more reserved role on the left-hand side to allow him to mark Bernardo or De Bruyne when they run into the space. This will mean Mkhitaryan will be the more offensive midfielder behind Calhanoglu, while Barella, an excellent ball-winner, will play more of a box-to-box role. I can also see Barella dropping back centrally to allow Calhanoglu and Mikhitaryan to rotate into a box shape with the two strikers.
On Inter’s right flank, much will depend on how well Grealish and Gundogan can balance their offensive contributions with the marking of Denzel Dumfries, who Inter will look to find in space with switches of play. When City press, they often look to split the field in half down the centre line and overload the flank. If City can prevent the switch of play from left to right over to Dumfries, then Inter will find it much more difficult to break through.
The biggest unknown for City’s defense will be how they will approach the 2-striker front of Inter. City have yet to play a team that utilizes two strikers in the Champions League this season. It will be interesting to see if Rodri and John Stones opt to cover the strikers more often, or move upfield to press Inter’s midfielders. If Inter are able to counter with numbers into space behind City’s line of Grealish-Gundogan-De Bruyne-Bernardo, I can see several dangerous chances being created.
If City’s shape in defense is the 3-2-4-1 shown above, then I believe Inter will have plenty of opportunities to create chances. If Barella and Mkhitaryan can get behind Gundogan and De Bruyne, Inter will have an overload in the centre of the pitch, leaving City’s CB’s with constant decisions to make on whether to move wide and cover the wingbacks, or stay centrally to cover the strikers and runs from the midfield. The same goes for City’s wide players covering Dumfries and Dimarco. If the advanced midfield line of Manchester City neglects their defensive responsibilities, Inter will look far more dangerous. However, out of possession Manchester City often move into a 4-4-2 or a 4-1-4-1 shape. Personally, I think a 4-1-4-1 out of possession would provide cover in defense across the field and prevent Inter from finding man advantages, as shown below.
In this shape, City are not left with any free attackers in the centre of the pitch, as Rodri can move centrally to cover Inter’s front 3, freeing up Akanji and Walker to close down wide areas when needed. When defending in the second half vs. Real Madrid, City opted for this 4-1-4-1 shape, and I would not be surprised to see it in the final.
Path to the Final:
Group C: Inter finished 2nd behind Bayern Munich in a group that saw Barcelona sent to the Europa League.
Round of 16 vs. Porto: 1-0 on aggregate, Inter went to Porto and held a clean sheet to move on.
Quarterfinal vs. Benfica: A 5-3 tie on aggregate that looks closer than it was. Inter won a strong away game 2-0, and then were up 5-1 on aggregate in the 78′ of the second leg before two late Benfica goals gave the Portuguese side something to keep their heads high about.
Semifinal vs. AC Milan: 3-0 on aggregate. What could be the final Milan derby at the historical San Siro was more impressive in the record books than on the pitch, where AC Milan failed to show up.
June 10th, 2023
This is the date that the Champions League Final will be played, in Istanbul, Turkiye. We’ve laid out the tactics, the stories to watch, and what this win would mean to each club. All that’s left is to wait for the big match! If you’re still reading by now, thank you for your time and I hope you found something to enjoy in this preview.
futbird 