Hello everyone and happy world cup knockouts! Sorry, it’s been a while since I’ve posted. I’ve been doing a lot of scouting work for a Canadian Premier League club this season which has taken up a lot of my time, but also been fantastic experience! Anyways, I’m going to publish previews of the WC knockout matchups, as there are quite a lot more this year and possibly some teams you may not be familiar with! Today we start with the first KO game to be played, South Africa vs. Canada.

Their Path to the R32:

For South Africa, it has been some time since Bafana Bafana brought excitement, belief, and joy to their supporters. This is only the fourth World Cup finals that South Africa have played in, with the previous editions being 1998, 2002, and 2010 (when they hosted). This means that South Africa were absent from the last three world cups, building up a palpable level of anticipation ahead of today’s match.

In AFCON qualifying, South Africa surprised most by finishing top of their group ahead of Nigeria, Benin, Lesotho, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe, with a 5-3-2 record. Having drawn both matches against Nigeria, it was their head-to-head results against the “weaker” sides in the qualification group that decided top spot, with South Africa picking up just 1 additional point over Nigeria.

Once arriving at the World Cup Finals, South Africa were drawn into a group alongside host nation Mexico, Czechia, and South Korea. When I say nearly all predictions included South Africa finishing bottom of this group, I’m not exaggerating. They got off to a rough welcome at the hands of Mexico, looking a little shell-shocked and affected by the occasion, losing 2-0. In their second match against Czechia, South Africa conceded early in the 6th minute before really impressing with how much they dominated the ball for the remainder of the match. Bafana Bafana ended up holding 62% possesion, creating 1.38xG, and attempting 17 shots, while it looked all for naught until a Czech hand-ball gave Teboho Mokoena the opportunity to level the match from the penalty spot, and he made no mistake to earn his country their first point of this WC campaign. Going into Matchday 3 of the group stage, the standings saw Mexico having already clinched top spot, and Korea as the favourite to take 2nd in the group. Both Czechia and South Africa went into their last match on 1 point knowing that only a win would allow them to progress. While the Czechs fell to Mexico, handing the hosts a perfect group stage, South Africa had no such plans against Korea. This match, they would be on the other end of Korea’s 68% possession and need to show their defensive organization to get a result. While being under pressure for most of the match, South Africa created more shooting opportunities, more shots on target, and crucially, more goals than South Korea. A fast break opportunity for Thapelo Maseko was the difference, as he found space to cut inside onto his left foot and find the bottom-right corner for the match’s only goal. This result catapulted South Africa from bottom of the group into 2nd place, and what led to their matchup against Canada today.

Canada on the other hand, did not go through qualification as a host nation (although in CONCACAF, qualification is never really in question for the three host nations). Instead they prepared with friendly matches, playing WC sides such as Australia, Colombia, Ecuador, Tunisia, and Uzbekistan. Canada only lost one of these pre-tournament friendlies, to Australia 1-0 in Montreal. Coming into the tournament, Group B was jokingly dubbed “The Group of Life” (as opposed to the more commonly used term, Group of Death), due to its composition of Switzerland, Canada, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Qatar. This really was the best opportunity Canada could have asked for to qualify for the knockout rounds at a home world cup, and they just about managed to do it.

The home tournament clearly provided additional pressure on the Canadian side, who are generally not used to having expectations at a major international tournament such as the world cup. They started slow against Bosnia on MD1, went behind early and had to salvage a 1-1 draw thanks to Cyle Larin’s late deflected strike. This draw meant the next match against Qatar was a mandatory 3 points. Canada came out flying against the previous World Cup hosts, and were up 3-0 at halftime. The overarching story of this match however was a major loss for Canada. Star midfielder Ismael Koné (who currently plays for Sassuolo in Serie A) suffered a gruesome tibia-fibia fracture following a mistimed tackle by Qatar’s Assam Madibo (who for what it’s worth, looked very clearly distraught and horrified at the result of his tackle, this was not intent-to-injure). After a lengthy delay, Koné was carried off on a stretcher, giving a thumbs-up to the packed Vancouver crowd while inhaling supplemental oxygen through a mask.

Koné’s replacement? None other than fellow CF Montréal academy graduate, Nathan Saliba. Saliba is a player I watched make his debut for CF Montréal and instantly had a very strong feeling he would be a Canadian senior international soon. He provides more defensive cover and stability in midfield than Koné, with a little less of that game-breaking creativity and 1v1 ability Koné shows on the ball, and will be taking the starting spot in midfield for the rest of the tournament. Saliba proved his worth almost immediately, scoring a free kick after play resumed to make it 4-0 Canada and revive the crowd, who had fallen understandably silent after the Koné injury. Canada would go on to finish with a 6-0 win, including a Jonathan David hat-trick, and set themselves up to win the group on the final day with a draw or better against Switzerland. However, Canada’s dreams of winning the group and getting to potentially stay in Vancouver through the R16 were not to be. Canada essentially lost this group over a 10 minute span at the start of the second half against Switzerland. Seemingly not yet prepared to start the game after halftime, Canada made two costly errors leading to 46′ and 57′ goals from Vargas and Manzambi, and were suddenly chasing the match. Promise David managed to pull one back in the 76′, and Canada pushed very hard for the equalizer but fell just short, leading to the Swiss topping the group, and Canada travelling to Los Angeles to face South Africa.

What to Expect (Playstyle):

This R32 match bills Canada as the favourite, ranked ~30 spots higher than South Africa coming into today. While this might sound incredible to Canadian fans who were expecting a matchup against South Korea, it’s not as much of an advantage as it would seem. Canada is rarely the favourite in matches, only realistically when they play smaller CONCACAF nations. Of the three host nations, Canada is the only one not in FIFA’s top 20. This Canada side under Jesse Marsch are much less comfortable when they need to hold the majority of possession and try to break down a low block. Canada’s natural preference is to play in the mid-block 4-4-2, look to counter with pace and numbers, and get as many crosses into the box as possible. I cannot say with confidence that they are prepared to win a match of this magnitude, having to play as the favourites. I don’t expect South Africa to willingly concede 65-70% possession, and there will be spells where they have control of the ball. Canada’s toughest test will be how they break down the South African block in settled defence. For a cross-heavy side, Canada’s chance creation attempts may be a little hopeful today, sending crosses in as often as possible, hoping to create a chance. The loss of a player like Koné will be felt in a match like this one more than others. Assuming we will see a double pivot of Stephan Eustaquio and Nathan Saliba for Canada, much of the responsibility to unlock the defence will fall to Canada’s wide players. We should see a solid rest-defence of 4 or 5 players for Canada, with Richie Laryea more likely to get further forward than Alistair Johnston at FB. Meanwhile the likes of Tajon Buchanan, Ali Ahmed, and Jonathan David will have significant responsibility to win their 1v1 battles and help create final third entries on the flanks. Jonathan David specifically will likely need to drop off the frontline and play as a #10 to help provide overloads against the South Africa block.

South Africa will be relying on their centre-backs to deal with the Canadian crosses, with Mbekezeli Mbokazi being one to watch in the South African backline. The 20-year old CB is having a great season with Chicago Fire in MLS after making the move from Orlando Pirates in South Africa in the winter transfer window. He’s dominant in defensive duels and is South Africa’s primary man for interceptions, clearances, and overall defensive contributions. Their FB’s, #20 Mudau and #6 Modiba, like to get forward in possession and will need to be very conscious of their rest-defence responsibilities and track back consistently hard today, else Canada will find joy in the wide areas during transitional moments. South Africa have been playing a 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3 system so far, with head coach Hugo Broos seeming to have settled on the 4-2-3-1 with a double pivot of #5 Mbatha and #13 Sithole. Mbatha gets further forward and will act as a #8 in possession, while Sithole has been a very effective presence screening his defence. South Africa have struggled so far at this tournament tracking late runs in-behind the defence. Back-post runs are going to be something Canada want to attempt and take advantage of as much as possible.

South Africa are a considerable threat on counter-attacks. They can go direct and use their pace, or opt for a more fluid counter-attack using shorter progression while packing the centre of the pitch with numbers. Canada needs to be very careful when counter-pressing in transition, one lost duel and South Africa can be in with a chance. With the status of Moise Bombito, Canada’s best CB, still in doubt, Derek Cornelius and Luc de Fougerolles will need to stay sharp and avoid costly lapses in concentration.

Result?:

I believe this has potential to be a much closer match than many people anticipate. Both teams are playing in their first-ever World Cup knockout match. Not a player on the pitch will have experienced the atmosphere, occasion, and pressure of today’s match before. So in other words, anything can happen.

If Canada play their best football and take South Africa very seriously, then they are capable of controlling this match, limiting South Africa in transition, and advancing to the R16. However it is far from a foregone conclusion, and South Africa has every chance to produce another upset at the World Cup. This will be a game of moments and decision-making. Whichever side can deal with the occasion best and stay composed for 90 minutes will come out on top.

The winner of this match will advance to play the winner of Netherlands vs. Morocco in the R16.

Thanks for Reading and enjoy the match!

-LM