Next up, we have FIFA’s #10 ranked nation Germany up against #41 ranked Paraguay in the third R32 match of this 2026 World Cup. Germany are the heavy favourites heading into the match but as we all know, anything is possible!

How They Got Here:

Germany, after being eliminated in the group stages of the 2018 and 2022 World Cup, had a clear point to prove to themselves, their country, and the world, going into this World Cup qualification cycle. However it did not start off as planned (let me have this one, please) with a historical defeat at the hands of Slovakia in Bratislava, putting Germany’s qualification out of their hands on MD1. Germany took this defeat personally it seems, won all of their remaining qualifying matches (while Slovakia lost to Northern Ireland, sigh), and got revenge on Slovakia with a 6-0 win on the final day of qualifying to top their group and automatically advance to these World Cup finals.

Drawn into a group alongside Curaçao, Côte d’Ivoire, and Ecuador, Julian Nagelsmann’s squad started their tournament against the World Cup debutants of Curaçao. Six minutes in, Felix Nmecha opened the scoring and just about everyone watching thought we were on our way to a true “Welcome to the World Cup” moment for the small island nation (the smallest population to ever qualify for the World Cup). In the 21′, Livano Comenencia sent Willemstad into a frenzy as his edge of the box strike found the back of the net past Manuel Neuer, a goal surreal to its scorer, who was seeing Neuer outside of a FIFA video game for the first time in his life. After the incredible product of American innovation known as the “Hydration Break”, where Germany got time to regroup and make tactical changes, the game resumed with all of Curaçao’s historical momentum having been lost in service of television advertisements. When the full-time whistle blew, the scoreboard read: Germany 7 – 1 Curaçao. Welcome to the World Cup indeed. Germany struggled in their second match against Côte d’Ivoire, failing to make use of their chances and going down 1-0 to a Franck Kessié goal in the 30′. In the 60′, Julian Nagelsmann subbed off Jamal Musiala for Denis Undav, and the Stuttgart striker turned this match into his own. Just eight minutes later, Undav volleyed a cross into the net to level the match, before snatching all 3 points for Germany at the death with a beautiful combination of off-ball positioning and a first touch to set up the winning strike. Germany notably lost Nico Schlotterbeck to a ligament injury in this match, likely to be out for the rest of the tournament. That is their starting LCB down, with the veteran Toni Rudiger stepping into his place. After the Côte d’Ivoire match, Germany had clinched top spot in their group and had little to play for against Ecuador except preparing for the knockouts. After scoring in the 2′ thanks to Leroy Sané, Germany let off the gas pedal and allowed Ecuador to get back into the match, conceding the equaliser in the 9′ before a late goal by Gonzalo Plata send Ecuadorians into delirium, as they had just narrowly escaped being eliminated in the group stage by beating Germany. While Germany showed some moments of dominance in the group stage, they have not looked unassailable, which Paraguay will be hoping to take advantage of today.

For Paraguay, the World Cup journey started in the formidable CONMEBOL qualification, almost certainly the most difficult federation to qualify for the World Cup in. Qualification takes place over three calendar years. One group of all 10 South American teams, each team plays the others home and away, at the end the Top 6 advance to the World Cup, while #7 gets a chance in the inter-continental playoff. Paraguay sits firmly behind the South American “Big 5” if you will, of ARG, BRA, COL, ECU, and URU. This means they needed to be the “best of the rest” to get automatic World Cup qualification, which they did, finishing level on points with Brazil in qualifying and only losing out on Goal Differential. Paraguay achieved draws away to Colombia, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Uruguay, while beating Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay at home en-route to qualification. This team is certainly no joke.

Paraguay were drawn into the host USA’s group, alongside Australia and Turkiye. Their tournament started with a stumble, a 4-1 loss to the USA in which Paraguay were in all aspects of the match, dominated. This could’ve rattled the side and sent them spiraling out of the group, but Paraguay showed resilience, earning their first 3 points of the tournament against Turkiye having held a 1-0 lead for 88 minutes, while down to 10-men for the entire 2nd half. This was a massive result for Paraguay who would certainly advance to the knockout stages with a draw or win against Australia on the final day. This match was probably the biggest “Biscotto” of the group stage, as Australia and Paraguay were both guaranteed qualification with a draw. The teams did not even combine for 1 xG in total as a goalless draw played out to send both sides through. As the 3rd place finisher in Group D, Paraguay earned the right to play Germany today.

What To Expect (Playstyle):

Germany will likely hold the vast majority of the ball and the attacking possession in this match. This German team is very balanced and can play in various styles. Today, Nagelsmann starts a backline of Nathaniel Brown, Rudiger, Tah, and Kimmich in front of Manuel Neuer. Nathaniel Brown is a very exciting young talent who I got to watch dominate the U21 European championship in 2025, his last matches playing as a youth international before Nagelsmann called him up to the senior team, and will be heading to Bayern Munich after the World Cup. Brown is a defensively capable player who’s real joy is found getting forward and creating chances. He can invert into the midfield without an issue alongside Aleksandar Pavlovic to allow the other member of the double-pivot, Felix Nmecha, to get further forward in possession. Rudiger and Tah provide a very physically imposing CB pair for Paraguay to try and attack today: aerial duels are not the way to success. At RB, the ever-present Joshua Kimmich will provide a more reserved attacking output, focusing on the teams rest-defence and early progression.

In front of the midfield pivot, Jamal Musiala has been dropped from the starting XI in favour of Denis Undav, with Kai Havertz moving back into the #10 role from ST to make space for Undav up top. Florian Wirtz, realistically another #10 himself, starts on the LW but will be drifting inside to the half-spaces often to combine with teammates around the box. Leroy Sané on the RW provides a more direct threat to space in-behind with his pace and goal-scoring ability. Germany will look for controlled buildup and generally don’t attempt to threaten space in-behind during early buildup (unless it is to Sané’s side of the pitch). The Paraguay press will have a very difficult task trying to disrupt Germany in-possession. Once they’ve gotten into the final third, Germany will look for shorter passes in-behind the lines to Undav, or out wide to setup a cutback. Germany will look to exert control over the match in all phases of play with their well-rounded 4-2-3-1 system.

Paraguay meanwhile, will be expected to spend much of the match in their mid-to-low block 4-4-2 shape. This is a favourite out-of-possession shape of managers playing as the underdog for many reasons. Paraguay will attempt to reduce the space in-between their lines as much as possible to limit the area players like Havertz and Wirtz have to operate in. This 4-4-2 shape may drop into a 4-5-1 in settled defence, with Julio Enciso dropping from ST into a LW position. Paraguay’s CB’s will need to have one of their best matches if they’re to handle the threat of Denis Undav, who has looked like a man possessed at this tournament. When they regain possession, Miguel Almiron on the right flank will get forward quickly in support, while Enciso will play more as a second-striker/LW, dropping off the frontline into space. Paraguay have a natural midfielder in Matias Galarza starting at LW today, and I would expect him to move centrally to form a 3-man midfield in-possession. Manager Gustavo Alfaro has opted for Junior Alonso at LB, who is more of a CB/LB hybrid player and not a natural wingback. Alonso will have the task of defending Leroy Sané. At 33 years old, it’s a question of if Alonso has the legs for this task, as he certainly has the veteran savvy to do a job.

In midfield, Damian Bobadilla is a very fun player who can provide goals as a late-arriving player to the box. He will certainly be the more forward-thinking of the two, with Andres Cubas taking up the defensive midfield role. Bobadilla and Galarza will both play as #8’s in front of Cubas at times. Anchoring the frontline between Enciso and Almiron is veteran target man, Gabriel Avalos. Standing at 1.91m tall, Avalos is the one Paraguayan attacker who might be able to challenge Tah and Rudiger in the air and will certainly be a focal point for crosses into the box. Paraguay have the ability to create chances and goals against this Germany side if the Germans aren’t careful. I don’t see Paraguay scoring more than 2 goals at most today though, so they will need to keep Germany at arm’s length for most of the match to come out on top.

Result?:

If Germany come to play today, then this will not be very close, 3-0 Germany is a very possible outcome. If Paraguay manage to nick a goal first however, then everything changes and we will start to see what this German team is made of in high-pressure moments. The longer this game stays 0-0, the more belief Paraguay will have, and belief is a dangerous weapon.

Prediction: 3-1 Germany

Thanks for Reading!

-LM