Today we have another exciting matchup between FIFA’s #33 and #31 ranked nations: Côte d’Ivoire and Norway. In a matchup without a clear favourite, where neither side has extensive World Cup knockout experience, there is potential for brilliance, mistakes, and a lot of scoring chances.

How They Got Here:

Côte d’Ivoire steamrolled a CAF qualification group that was no guarantee, with the likes of Gabon, Gambia, and Kenya alongside them, picking up 8 wins and 2 draws while scoring 25 and conceding 0. That’s right, Côte d’Ivoire did not concede a single goal in qualifying. It doesn’t matter what team, federation, or opponents, keeping 10 straight clean sheets shouldn’t be realistically achievable. Their scoring was also impressively by committee. Top scorer Seko Fofana had just 3 goals in qualifying, while another eight players had 2, and six more Ivorians contributed a goal over their qualifying run. That’s fifteen different goalscorers, which is very enviable depth scoring going into a major tournament where it is needed more than ever. Côte d’Ivoire are the real deal, and have potential to go far in this tournament if they win today. They’re very solid in defense, and can hurt you in endless ways in attack.

The Ivorians were drawn into a group with Germany, Ecuador, and Curaçao, with most initial predictions having them and Ecuador in a close race for 2nd place in the group. Starting the tournament against Ecuador, Côte d’Ivoire were the clearly better side in what was a back-and-forth game at times. Both goalkeepers made fantastic saves, but Amad Diallo found the back of the net in stoppage time to give Côte d’Ivoire a 1-0 victory. In their second match against Germany, Côte d’Ivoire were the marginally better side in the first half despite having only 39% possession. While Germany attempted to double-team the Ivorian “golden boy” Yan Diomande (as his team refers to him) for the entire match, Leroy Sané failed to track back on one key occasion, leaving Diomande 1 on 1 with Joshua Kimmich. While a legend of the game, there was no way Kimmich could keep up with Diomande at his age, and the Ivorian winger beat him to the goal-line before lashing a ball across the box that would’ve been an assist had Germany not made a goal-line block on the initial shot. However the ball fell to Franck Kessié who made no mistake, putting the Ivorians up. The second half saw Côte d’Ivoire attempt to protect their lead, which if you read the Germany preview, ended in the Denis Undav show, 2-1 Germany. The Ivorians needed a result against Curaçao to advance, which they obtained comfortably by the margin of 2-0. Ecuador’s draw to Curaçao gave Ivory coast 2nd place in the group, only losing out to Germany on the H2H matchup result.

Norway had a much less-certain path to qualification, something that has not been the norm for Norway in recent editions of the World Cup, where they have often stumbled at this UEFA qualification hurdle. This year was different and Norway had a point to prove. In a group with Italy, who many favoured to qualify, Norway were perfect. 8-0-0 with a +32 goal differential over fellow European nations such as Italy, Estonia, and Moldova, and the vikings were en route to the World Cup. Norway arrived to what many saw as one of the tournaments “Groups of Death”, alongside France, Senegal, and Iraq. Both France and Senegal have considerably more World Cup experience than Norway and this group would prove a good test. Norway got a bit of schedule-benefit, starting their tournament against Iraq, and dominating with a 4-1 win. This set up a crucial clash with Senegal on MD2, with the winner of this game being in pole position to qualify in 2nd place behind France. Norway showed both their strengths, going up 2-0 just after halftime, but also the cracks in their team, conceding a goal just 5 minutes later to bring the result back into doubt. Erling Haaland was on form in this match, and he struck again 5 minutes after the Senegal goal to restore Norway’s 2 goal lead. This lead would prove crucial as Ismaila Sarr would add another goal in the 90+3′, but Senegal’s comeback would fall just short and Norway took a thrilling 3-2 victory that ensured their qualification to the knockouts in 2nd place at worst. Manager Stale Solbakken decided that winning the group against France on the final day was unachievable and rested 10/11 starters, including the keeper. “Norway B” if you will, performed admirably against France but there was a gulf of a difference in class between Ousmane Dembélé and any Norwegian defender who tried to challenge him. A hat-trick for the Frenchman and Norway finished 2nd in their group, setting up this clash against Côte d’Ivoire.

What To Expect (Playstyle):

Côte d’Ivoire’s success is built upon their strong defensive foundation. They have the players to start multiple backlines of World Cup-quality, and have a very strong defensive record. Franck Kessié and Ibrahim Sangaré offer good protection for the backline in rest-defence and break up plenty of opposition counter-attack before they reach the Ivorian final third. They can play direct, or build out from the back. Look for Guela Doué to get forward down the right flank from his RB position and overlap for Nicolas Pepe at RW, who will be looking to cut inside onto his left. Young target-man Ange-Yoan Bonny of Inter Milan starts up top, and will look to be the attacking focal point for crosses and balls into the box.

At LW is Yan Diomande, the danger man for Côte d’Ivoire. A 1v1 dribbling specialist, Diomande will require constant double-teams from the Norwegian defence. Côte d’Ivoire like to create chances through their wide players, with the wingers looking to get balls into the box as often as possible. The midfielders crash the box very well and will be in position to be a threat on second phase balls. If Norway look to double-team Diomande, keep an eye on how this affects the rest of their defensive structure.

Norway will play this match in a 4-3-3 formation, which is really more of an offset 4-4-2. Haaland and Sorloth are the two strikers, with Sorloth playing at RW and being the main man for Norway as an outlet. They’ll look to direct defensive clearances his way, with Sorloth operating as a wide target forward. Antonio Nusa is a very exciting winger who starts on Haaland’s left, and is the only natural winger in the Norway starting XI. He will look to have a lot of the same impact as Yan Diomande will for the opposition and get past Guela Doué in their 1v1 battles. Patrick Berg, Sander Berge, and Martin Odegaard start in midfield. Expect Odegaard to get forward and also to drift onto the RW in possession as Sorloth moves centrally. He is Norway’s primary chance creator, and if he receives the ball in space he has the ability to send Haaland in alone on goal. Berg and Berge (two different players, yes) will play more as a double-pivot, with Berge as the 6 and Patrick Berg as the 8. Patrick Berg is a natural 6 for Bodo/Glimt, but can get forward in attack and showed his ability in assisting Haaland’s 2nd against Senegal.

In defense, Norway will rely a lot on their FB’s, David Moller Wolfe and Marcus Holmgren Pedersen, both to defend the dangerous Ivorian wingers, and to get forward in attack to send crosses into the box. The partnership between Moller Wolfe and Nusa on the left has been very good this tournament, with both players showing strong chemistry with one another. Holmgren Pedersen replaces the injured Julian Ryerson, and will be the man tasked with Yan Diomande. Torbjorn Heggem and Kristoffer Ajer are the CB pairing who will have plenty of decisions to make in box defence against the waves of attack that Côte d’Ivoire bring.

This match will come down to how well Norway can get the ball to their front players in space to make an impact, and how well they can defend the Ivorian wingers. If Côte d’Ivoire can prevent Norway’s midfield from sustaining possession and contributing to more controlled buildup, then their backline will have a good chance to win duels on Norways direct aerial balls. Norway will have to push players forward to break this Ivorian defence, unless Haaland can play at the inhuman level he is capable of. They will be very exposed in transition and I do expect Côte d’Ivoire to take advantage of this. Côte d’Ivoire likely want this game to remain low-event and scoreless for as long as possible, sap the Norwegians confidence, and strike late with impact subs. It really could go either way. Both teams have a point to prove in the World Cup knockouts without the experience of having been here before.

Result?:

With the obvious disclaimer that this is a match who’s result is up in the air, my prediction is a 1-goal victory for Côte d’Ivoire, either 1-0 or 2-1.

Thanks for Reading!

-LM