Bonjour/hi and Bienvenue au Canada/Welcome to Canada! This Round of 32 matchup will kickoff by the shore of Lake Ontario in Toronto, Ontario, Canada with two teams sure to garner heavy local support in Portugal and Croatia. Around 300,000 people of Portuguese and Croatian descent live in Toronto alone, with many more within a short trip to Toronto Stadium. Expect the stadium to be packed and loud, with plenty of red! It’s like they’re paying tribute to Canada with the red of Portugal up against the famous red-and-white checkerboard of the Croatian kit. Let’s get into the football:

How They Got Here:

Portugal had one of the more difficult European qualification groups, with very solid Ireland and Hungary sides alongside them (and a less solid Armenia). Portugal topped their group by 3 points, drawing Hungary and losing to Ireland once, but winning their remaining 4 matches. The player formerly known as Cristiano Ronaldo (don’t come for me CR7 fans) led Portugal in scoring over qualification, having scored both goals in their 2-2 draw with Hungary, another against Ireland, and two more against Armenia. Playing as the centre-forward, as he has for some time now ever since Father Time managed to affect him and he’s become less mobile, Ronaldo is the clear focal point of the Portuguese team when he is on the pitch, for better or for worse. More on that later.

Portugal arrived at the World Cup in a group alongside Colombia, DR Congo, and Uzbekistan (making a surprise World Cup appearance!). Portugal’s group stage was anything but dominant. Starting against the DR Congo, Portugal controlled the vast majority of the ball but with little threat. Joao Neves scored a nice headed goal from a late-arriving run to the box to put Portugal up in the 6th minute, and after that Portugal didn’t look like threatening. Bruno Fernandes did his best to create chances, but Portugal’s finishing was very poor, not managing a single shot on target after their opening goal. Yoane Wissa struck for DR Congo in first half stoppage time to level the match, and Portugal maintained possession-without-threat for the remainder of the match which ended 1-1. They handled the Uzbeks 5-0 on MD2 convincingly, with not much to be learned from the match tactically. MD3 saw Portugal take on Colombia, with the winner taking the group while a draw would see Colombia finish 1st. Colombia really had all of the attacking threat in this game. They’re a dangerous side who can go toe-to-toe with any team at this tournament and were the better side. The Portuguese front-3 of Joao Felix, Ronaldo, and Pedro Neto were shockingly poor as Portugal managed just two shots on target from their 13 attempts. Colombia thought they had won the match at the death from Davinson Sanchez’s header at the back post, only for it to be ruled out offside by a single toe’s length. The match finished 0-0 with Colombia deservedly finishing 1st, sending Portugal to Toronto to face Croatia.

Croatia had just the Czechs to contend with in their qualifying group realistically, as the Faroe Islands, Montenegro, and Gibraltar were the remaining opponents. Croatia won all their matches aside from one draw with the Czechs and finished top of the group with ease. They were drawn into a difficult World Cup group, alongside England, Ghana, and Panama. Even the supposedly weakest team in the group, Panama, is no easy match. Croatia began their tournament against England, and despite conceding more chances in the first half, were able to equalize twice for a 2-2 scoreline going into halftime. In the end, England created 3.2xG to Croatia’s 0.7, and came away 4-2 winners in the end, leaving Croatia on the back foot going into MD2. A crucial matchup against Panama awaited and while Croatia did create more chances and hold more of the ball than Panama, it was a relatively cagey even match. Both sides failed to convert their chances, until Ante Budimir managed to break the deadlock in the 54′. Croatia stood strong under a wave of Panama attacks as the match neared its finish and held the clean sheet to secure 3 points.

On 3 points and with a -1 GD, Croatia couldn’t afford to lose their final match against Ghana and hope to advance. The Ghanaian defence was excellent on MD3 and were really a textbook example of how to play a 4-4-2 mid-to-low block. The game was back and forth, with Ghana threatening on the counter when Croatia lost the ball. Petar Sucic struck a lovely daisy-cutter strike from outside the box through a Ghanaian defender to give Croatia the lead in the 31′ against a defence that wasn’t allowing much more than long shots. The game was even after the goal until an extended spell of Ghanaian pressure led to a Luckassen equalizer in the 73′. Croatia’s captain and greatest ever player, Luka Modric, showed that class is permanent though, assisting a Nikola Vlasic header in the 83′ to regain the lead and secure the win for Croatia. They would finish 2nd in their group behind England, setting up this clash against Portugal.

What To Expect(Playstyle):

Expect Portugal to have the majority of possession in this match, and by a good margin. From GK up to Bruno Fernandes at the #10, this Portugal team is world-class. The midfield trio of Neves, Vitinha, and Bruno is probably the best midfield at this tournament. Nuno Mendes is the best LB in the world. Joao Cancelo and Ruben Dias are top-class players who have played on the biggest stage countless times. Diogo Costa in net is as good as any keeper not named Thibaut Courtois. This means Portugal can easily play through a press, retain possession, and dominate the midfield battle. Where they start to falter is in the final third. There’s no beating around the bush here, Cristiano Ronaldo is the main player holding this team back. If he were willing to accept the squad role of the aging veteran who can pass along their knowledge and be a role model for the younger players while coming on for the last 30 minutes of a match when Portugal need a goal, things would be different. That’s never been who Ronaldo is nor a role he would accept. While being very immobile and glued to the opposition CB’s, Ronaldo demands the ball at all opportunities. This is rather predictable and when he’s had shooting chances, they’ve been off-target more often than not. He doesn’t move off the opposition backline to try and draw defenders out of position or open up space for himself. I’m not saying he’s incapable of being an effective centre-forward right now, but that is the case if he continues with his current playstyle. Portugal overall are too predictable in the final third and hold a lot of possession without ever threatening to create a chance. This is what gives Croatia hope.

Croatia has never been a side reliant on dominating a match to win. They never give up and have proven time and time again at major tournaments that they know how to find a way. While the aging stars like Modric, Perisic, and Kramaric have been the faces of this Croatian team for the past decade, they are not without fresh talent. Luke Vuskovic is arguably the best CB of his age right now and is coming off a dominant season in the Bundesliga having only turned 19 years old in February. Luka Sucic (cousin of Petar) is seen as Croatia’s heir to Modric’s midfield role in the national team. The Real Sociedad midfielder has bundles of technique and can be a real difference maker on the ball for Croatia. We could see Josko Gvardiol make a start, a very strong defender already in his prime at Manchester City. Como’s Martin Baturina, formerly of Dinamo Zagreb, has had a great tournament so far and has been a constant in a midfield/wing hybrid role. Croatia will not need extended spells of possession to create chances and score goals. They’re dangerous from outside of the box and on set pieces. If Portugal fail to create chances with their possession, Croatia will have ample opportunity to win this match. Based on what we have seen so far from each side, this seems to be the likely way this match will go.

If Portugal have an uncharacteristically clinical match in the final third, it is possible that they run away with it. Croatia will find it hard to score 3 or 4 goals in the match, which is the rate Portugal is capable of if things fall their way. I do not have confidence in Portugal to be at their best and expect a tight match. Extra time and penalties are a very real possiblity!

Result?:

I back Croatia to advance based on what I’ve seen so far. For the sake of a prediction, I’ll say Portugal 1 – 2 Croatia.

Thanks for Reading!

-LM